Tag Archives: Odds

Scotland

A Day at: Ayr Racecourse

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It was a mixed experience at “Scotland’s premier racecourse”, much like the unsettled weather on “Family Fun Day”.

Last Sunday I finally had the opportunity to visit Ayr Racecourse, which bills itself as “Scotland’s premier racecourse”. This race day wasn’t ‘premium’ but I was keen to go racing at a place where I rarely back any winners.

Ayr is only a short 40 minutes trip by train from Glasgow, situated on the southwest coast of Scotland and therefore quite accessible. I flew in from Dublin to Glasgow International Airport in the morning, then walked to Paisley train station and a £12.50 Off-Peak Day Return ticket brought me all the way down to sleepy Ayr on this drizzly Sunday morning.

There’s enough time for a hearty breakfast (The West Kirk, a Wetherspoon, but architecturally exciting as it’s a converted church), a chilled IPA ( Willie Wastles Sports Bar) and a leisurely stroll through town before hitting the racecourse.

Racecourse Experience

It’s £25 through the gate. Steep for a day full of screaming children – it’s “Family Fun Day” – and a bunch of class 5 and 6 races. My biggest bugbear is that an early bird offer was available: £20, which is much fairer – however, the website didn’t allow me to complete the booking with an Irish address. Reaching out to the racecourse via e-mail didn’t yield a response. Disappointing.

That aside, the racecourse is certainly mostly gorgeous with its old Victorian-style stands, the old clock towering over the grandstand and the pretty flat racecourse that’s 100% observable for the racegoer from the stands.

A big screen was available and added to the racing experience, especially for someone who’s into the actual sport: great viewing from the stands, supported by decent binoculars and the screen, made the actual racing experience work well for me.

I loved the large parade ring as well: you can simply walk to the end of it, where the pre-parade ring is located as well, to get a full view of the horses in the preliminaries right until they leave for the track from there.

The inside part of the stands has a number of bars for drinks – I never had to wait long in line – and ample opportunity to sit and follow the action on the screens from there.

Food & Drink

I’m conflicted. The drinks were seriously good value in this day and age: £5 for a lager, and £5.50 for a Guinness. The variety of food offerings were decent, if not great.

Pricing generally fair for a racecourse, although the coffee prices for a regular cup, which is still rather small in my view, is quite excessive – though that’s the case at most racecourses – especially as the coffee is basically brown water.

I felt truly ripped off at the Ice Cream van where I ordered a small single cone with a sprinkle of chocolate sauce for £4.50, which is a lot of money for a small cone. It was literally the tiniest bit of chocolate sauce to the point where it was barely noticeable at all – which says something because the small single cone was certainly tiny.

The worst part: I only realised it later after I checked my banking app, was getting charged £5.00 (which would have been a ‘regular’ single cone) instead of £4.50.

Expectations are low when buying ice cream at a racecourse. I know it’s overpriced; and yet I got quite a few here in Ireland over the last weeks. It’s a treat. But the ice cream van at Ayr took it to new hights. Sure, it could have been an honest mistake… still not a great experience.

Odds of Return

2/1

Overall it was an enjoyable experience; probably for a racing fan like myself, it would be even more enjoyable on a day that’s not called “Family Fun Day”.

Given the quality of racing isn’t always brilliant and entry is on the steep side, this feels more like one “seen it, done it, next one” I don’t mind coming back one day, most likely that’s not too soon, though.

Preview

Falmouth Stakes 2021

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An exciting rematch: the best three-year-old fillies battle it out over the mile as the first three home in the Coronation Stake go head-to-head.

Alcohol Free was a superb winner of the Royal Ascot race, firmly putting stamina doubts to rest as she stormed home in desperate conditions.

The daughter of No Nay Never clearly confirmed all the promise she showed as a juvenile, having won two of her three starts this season, with the only blip coming in the ultra-competitive 1000 Guineas at Newmarket.

As impressive as her Ascot performance was, ground conditions will be completely different today. She has solid form on a faster surface also, nonetheless that is a question mark.

Connections of Snow Lantern had every right to feel a little bit unlucky after the grey didn’t get quite a clear run in the closing stages at Royal Ascot. She clearly settled much better than when beaten as odds-on favourite at York a few weeks earlier, though, and that gave her a chance to finish fast in the end.

Her talent was never in doubt, though, and the supremely well-bred Snow Lantern is still open to any amount of improvement.

The same could be said about Primo Bacio, who got the better of Snow Lantern at York. She quickened in visually impressive manner, following-up on an eye-catching seasonal debut performance in the Fred Darling Stakes.

Can she step up to Group 1 level? We’ll find out today. As visually arresting her last run was, on topspeed ratings she has plenty to find with the market principles.

Aiden O’Brien throws only one dart today. His 1000 Guineas heroine Mother Earth finished 3rd in the Coronation Stakes and was also a fine runner-up in the French Guineas before that.

She was an excellent juvenile but has stepped up as a three-year-old again and represents consistency of the highest order. She lost nothing in defeat at Royal Ascot. In fact, in my view, she enhancer her claims to be considered the favourite today.

Mother Earth clearly benefited from better ground at Newmarket, and it’s only down to her class that she performs nearly as well on slow going. As impressive as Alcohol Free and Snow Lantern appeared visually in the Coronation Stakes, Mother Earth’s finishing speed % was actually better that day.

Flying the flag for the older generation is Duke Of Cambridge Stakes winner Indie Angel. Although that is good form and she won well, she is well exposed and probably a league below the required standard in order to feature against the strong classic generation.

Lady Bowthorpe was runner-up that day and her consistency gives her a chance on any given day. Nonetheless, she has something to find with the market principles.

Perhaps the dark horse is who could spring a surprise, given her 20/1 price tag, is the Joseph O’Brien trained Pretty Gorgeaus. I feel it’s too early to say she hasn’t trained on after two starts in heavy conditions this year.

it was certainly an improved showing at Royal Ascot, where she can be marked up given she was tracking a fast pace while the first three home were all ridden with a bit more restraint.

In conclusion: There is little to chose between the market principles in terms of form. If Alcohol Free or Snow Lantern can improve again remains to be seen. They will have to, though, as I strongly fancy Mother Earth to run a massive race on the better ground. Given current odds she is overpriced at 6/1+.

……………

2.40 York: G3 Summer Stakes, 6f

A quick selection to throw in here as Last Empire looks a silly price in a wide open race. She has to give weight away and was beaten by Light Refrain earlier this year and was bitterly disappointing when last seen.

Nonetheless, if you can forgive her Haydock run, then she is one the more consistent fillies and mares in this race, and one of the few who has multiple times ran fast enough – judged by topspeed ratings – to feature prominently in a race of this class.

Last Empire has ran multiple times to 90+ topspeed ratings, and her Kilvington Stakes runner-up performance back in May saw her clock a 96 rating once again, showing she is still capable to run a a high level.

The drift in her price is a worry, yet 20/1+ on offer is a silly price which I can’t let go.

Global Racing

Celebration Time!

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chockieflying4
WOW! What a week it has been – betting wise I mean! It’s a funny old game sometimes, isn’t it? Yes, It’s been a tough time for me in recent weeks if it comes to betting – I’ve been previewing races, shared my thoughts on tactics, analysed and assessed the chances of oh so many horses and was even bullish enough to published my selections here on a regular basis. But it just didn’t seem to happen for my selections. They either ran no race whatsoever, or – albeit only occasionally – hit the crossbar. Though getting the head in front when it really mattered? Nope, no way!

But that must surly be the beauty of horse racing and particularly betting on this sport: Things can change so quickly! One or two winners and suddenly your back in the profit – even after suffering a long losing run!

I encountered certainly a pretty gruelling losing run, indeed. 20! Yes, twenty losing selections on the bounce! That’s allot. However, I didn’t really think about too much and simply did my job. For me it is all about the value in the price and the profit in the long term. A losing run doesn’t mean that the bets haven’t been good. In fact 95% of all my bets placed this year are ones I would actually do again f I ‘d be in the same situation. I simply have to believe in my value. Sooner or later the winners would eventually fly in again. Otherwise it would be pointless, wouldn’t it?

It’s about confidence in the own abilities and having the right mindset. I’m certainly not the best punter in the world. Nor would I claim to be a particularly great form analyst. But there are things I’m good in and I’ve got skills that enable me to turn my betting into profit – in the long term.

That hasn’t been always the case in the past, but one has to learn from mistakes – or not?! In betting terms there can be quite costly mistakes. Though I believe I’m at a point where I learned from the past, and where know what I can do and also what doesn’t work for me. The believe in my skills ensured that I ‘knew’ the big winner is just around the corner. And so It happened – Finally, this week. Things kicked off with The Hangman in South Africa. A juicy 10/1 winner. It got even better with Flying The Flag at Meydan today, who landed a competitive Handicap at 7/1. The cherry on the cake was gutsy Chookie Royale who ran his rivals into the ground at Chelmsford and was a 13/2 selection this morning. Suddenly it’s all back in profit for the month!

I usually don’t fancy “shorties” (which doesn’t mean I’d exclude them completely – far from it – you can find value in hot favourites as well) and most of my bets are in the price range of at least 5/1 and upwards. It’s absolutely normal to encounter losing streaks if you’re betting on these kind of prices. However if I have value – theoretically a bet with a better chance of winning than the odds suggest – then I’ll turn things into profit in the long term. It simply will happen. I say that without any arrogance, knowing how much I “invested into learning the game” over the years. But saying that with confidence, while knowing I do make this game pay. However, one thing is most important than anything else. First of all I’ll always be a fan of the sport!