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Eyecatchers

Flat Horses to Follow 2024

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The flat is back and quickly kicks into gear. As is customary tradition for this time of the year: here’s a selection of horses to follow throughout the 2024 flat season.

My main focus is once again on potential Group level performers – although some may turn out to develop (“only”?) into classy handicappers. In any case, I hope the following 10 horses do offer indeed significant upside based on what they have shown as juveniles.

In truth, hardly any of these are “dark horses”. I haven’t read any of the numerous “horses to follow” pieces yet, neither any of the more prominent stable tours, in order to avoid getting influenced; nonetheless, if you’re browsing Twitter you can’t escape that some names have been prominently mentioned.

Even though this list had been compiled weeks ago already, and only waited to be published with the start of the new flat season, I can hardly claim to have uncovered “original material”.

In any case, this is an exciting time of the year. All hopes still alive. That lends itself perfectly to take a cheeky look back, also.

HTF 2023 Review:

The 2023 edition did quite well in general. Not every horse turned out be a future star of our beloved sport. But some shot right to the top of the game, while others won decent enough races. If I only would have backed them all when it mattered most.

Nonetheless, the stars of the “class of 23” were clearly Continuous – an excellent winner of the St Leger, as well as Oaks heroine Soul Sister, who was also my biggest winner last year when she landed the Musidora where I backed her at 20s.

English and Irish Guineas placed Hi Royal, Coronation Stakes runner-up Remarquee and impressive Royal Ascot scorer Coppice were other notable horses achieving success in 2023.

………..

Anzac Day
3yo colt – Andrew Balding

Green on debut when he missed the kick and as a consequence was left with a mountain to climb in a race that favoured the front due to the pace..

Finished very strongly in the final furlong and hinted ability if he could learn and move up in trip, given his pedigree screams stamina.

He moved up an additional furlong ten days later at Newmarket. A fine start, he was soon toward the front of the pack and travelled really well. As he increased the tempo from over 3f out, he soon kicked clear and was not the be caught.

A superb run as he beat a good Godolphin horse in second. The speed rating of 89 confirmed the visual impression. He’ll improve as he moves up to 12 furlongs and could be a dark horse for the Derby.

Azada
3yo filly – Dermot Weld

Impressive finish on debut from the back of the field in horrible ground when she accelerated in superb style from 3f out to leave the rest of the field standing, all while overcoming early greenness.

Achieved an excellent 82 debut speed rating. Looks one with plenty of scope as a 3-year-old, though may need soft ground to be seen to best effect.

A step up to a mile will be no problem whatsoever. Beyond that remains to be seen. The Galileo mare produced a 10f Group 1 winner in Australia, though.

British Camp
3yo colt – Andrew Balding

British Camp was green on his debut. Missed the break and was early enough off the bridle entering the home straight.

Three light backhanders later and finished off nicely under alight enough ride in the closing stages to win it on the line, with seemingly much more left in the tank.

Ran five furlongs of the final mile the fastest sectionals, including the final two furlongs, dipping easily under 12s, in a pretty competitive race, beating some nice horses.

He wasn’t expected on the day. The late May foal drifted out 18/1 before the off. He did plenty wrong, didn’t enjoy the best of trips, and still won also achieving a superb debut speed rating of 84.

Trained by Andrew Balding, British Camp is very well bred and related to smart individuals in his family. He should be capable of getting 1m 4f, but a fast 10 furlongs may be ideal at this stage of his career.

Galen
3yo colt – Joseph O’Brien

Very impressive debut in a maiden where he finished only second behind City Of Try. Missed break, possibly by design, then travelled well against the inside off the pace. Nice progress but in a pocked and had to switch before he ran home strongly, chasing COT.

Wasn’t seen since July. That’s a big question mark. Things must have gone wrong. But he has a Guineas and Derby entry and looks potentially a seriously exciting prospect over 7f to a mile, if there are no further issues.

God’s Window
3yo colt – John Gosden

Showed a likable turn of foot on debut at Doncaster in soft ground despite not being advantaged by how the race developed early on, travelling without cover the first 1.5 furlongs, and coming from off the pace in a slowly run race.

Good 77 debut speed rating. Deemed good enough to contest a deep Futurity Stakes. Missed the break and was quite keen in the early part of the race. Badly positioned but impressive finish for third.

Can only improve as he moves up in trip. Out of an Oaks Trial winner, by Dubawi, he looks an intriguing Derby prospect.

Grosvenor Square
3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien

Gutsy Galway winner on debut. Looked green and clueless enough, especially around the sharp bends. Connections have introduced smart horses in this particular race in the past.

The son of Galileo doesn’t look flashy and doesn’t seem to do anything in a hurry either. He ran well for third travelling quite wide, although he also appeared one paced in the Beresford.

He was seen to much better effect on his final run last year, moving up to 9 furlongs in the Eyrefield Stakes at Leopardstown where he kicked nicely from the front to win with ease.

He’s certainly going to be better the further he goes, as his pedigree suggests, as a son of Galileo and a half-brother to Santiago. Not the classiest in the stable for now, but solid speed ratings over sharp enough trips for this colt as a juvenile, that suggests there is plenty of upside.

Henry Longfellow
3yo colt – Aiden O’Brien

This son of Dubawi and Minding looks the real deal. Visually and on the clock he’s been nothing short of impressive in his three career runs as a juvenile.

The way he quickened on debut and next time in the Futurity Stakes from the front on both occasions was highly promising. He subsequently made top-class 2-year-old Bucanero Fuerte look like a lowly rated claimer in the National Stakes.

Most likely some of that had to do with the fact BF didn’t quite get home over the trip in a fast race. Nonetheless, Henry Longfellow, once again confirmed the impressions from his first two runs.

A seemingly uncomplicated individual, he was able to quicken from the front as well as chase a pace and pass rivals. He looks to possess plenty of scope as well.

The visual impressions are backed up by speed ratings. 85 on debut – that’s often the sign of a potentially classy individual. 101 in the Futurity. Confirmed by a 100 speed rating in the National Stakes.

He has the 2000 Guineas written all over his profile. I’m not an ante-post backer but would be seriously temped by the 6-7/1 available right now. Not totally impossible that he can stretch out to the Derby trip, either, although 10 furlongs may be the limit.

Inisherin
3yo colt – Kevin Ryan

Only half a lengths beaten on debut when market expected nothing (50/1). Travelled the best to 2f out and only beaten by a vastly more experienced horse. Fine 76 speed rating for a debut.

Impressive victory on seasonal return at Newcastle. Benefited from prime position in a really slowly run race but was impressive the way he finished easily sprinting clear under hands and heels with two subsequent sub-11s furlongs.

Looks sure to improve for experience and a step up in trip looks ideal on pedigree. Out of smart Ajman Princess who was Lanshire Oaks 3rd and winner of the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet.

A stiff mile and a strong pace could also work, especially in the early part of the season, possibly. Maybe not a prime contender for a 2000 Guineas, but could have an outside chance.

One Look
3yo filly – Paul Twomey

Overcame a stiff task on debut to take on vastly more experienced rivals in the highly competitive Goffs Million at the Curragh. She obliterated her rivals thanks to superb acceleration from 3f out.

She benefitted from a solid pace and got the gaps when needed that day but the way she put the race to bed was nothing short of astonishing. That’s backed by a sensational 92 debut speed rating.

Not sure she’ll get much further than a mile given the speed she showed and the dam doing her best work over a mile, too. She may need soft ground as well, as it appears she hits the ground quite hard.

Uluru
3yo filly – Joseph O’Brien

Impressive debut at Gowran Park from a wide draw where she didn’t get too well away at the start. Nonetheless, she ran away with it in the end and clocked an excellent 81 speed rating.

Changed hands afterwards and was desperately unlucky for new owners Team Valor in her final start last season. It wasn’t a good pace, she was stuck in the pack and just couldn’t get out. Did well to finish 4th.

She looks capable of improving into a stakes filly. The dam won over 12 furlongs, so a step up in trip will surely help her to improve. She also has an early season entry at Naas in March.

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses To Follow 2023: Older Handicappers

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Second part of a series that tries to pick out intriguing horses to follow for the new 2023 flat season.

The main focus is going to be on handicappers that may fly under the radar or offer significant upside, judged on their current BHA Official Rating.

Age Of Sail
4-yo gelding / Garry Moore / Frankel – Concordia

Caught the eye on all his last three starts on the flat in 2022. Doesn’t do things in a rush but has been knocking on the door over 10-12 furlongs last season.

Perhaps would benefit from cut in the ground. Deep ground over 10 furlongs interesting, but can see him move all the way up to 2 miles as well. Plenty of stamina and soft ground form in the pedigree.

Tried hurdling with varying degree of success over the winter. If he returns to the flat now as a 4-year-old he could be ready to exploit his 76 OR in the right races.

Al Husn
4-yo filly / Roger Varian / Dubawi – Hadaatha

Unbeaten in three starts in 2022. Last two strong performances in Newmarket Handicaps. Impressive when last seen, travelling well, before becoming a bit disorganised in a rough finish from 3f out before finishing really strongly to win.

Still quite lightly raced and open to improvement. Deserves a chance in listed race but also must have a chance to stay beyond 10f given she settles better now and has the pedigree.

Alseeyerthere
5-yo mare / Steph Hollinshead /Al Kazeem – Magic Destiny

Only three career runs, now eligible for Handicaps, should be ready to exploit opening mark. Caught the eye the last two runs, although didn’t seem to get home over 7 furlongs.

Full-sister to two winners over 6- to 7 furlongs, generally on better to fast ground. She showed good early speed in her July race and was keen the last two times to suggest she may follow more closely the route of Al Simmo who is a 88 rated multiple winner over 6 furlongs.

Blue Daisy
4-yo filly / George Boughey / Teofilo – Balsamine

Showed glimmers of ability toward the end of last season. Especially encouraging the way she stayed on in her final run in 2022 when not getting the best of runs from the back of the field.

Seems a temperamental filly as the headgear combination suggests as well. Off a 60 OR she appeals if she moves up in trip, though. Especially with cut in the ground on turf would be an intriguing runner.

Caph Star
4-yo Colt / Roger Varian / Siyouni – Caskelena

Promising on debut when 3rd in a hot race, running to 71 speed rating. Seriously impressive at Kempton subsequently, producing a rapid acceleration.

Not seen since then. Cost £200k as a yearling. Has the pedigree to improve this year, especially if he moves up in trip. Obvious question mark over long absence, though.

Desert Glory
4-yo gelding / James Tate / Churchill – Polygon

Green and raw on both starts last year. Badly outpaced when last seen. Looks to hit the ground hard.

Was gelded in January. Cost £55k as a yearling. Family does well on softer ground and All-Weather. He looks one sure to appreciate a step up in trip as well. Looks likely to improve as a 4yo – if he returns.

Floral Splendour
4-yo filly / Ian Jardine / Farhh – Red Tulip

Lightly raced filly. Not disgraced in heavy ground in final start in 2022. Eyecatching on her penultimate start at Musselburgh, when heavily bumped early and a clear run denied in the home straight.

Looks open to progress, especially if she moves up to a mile, possibly beyond, on decent ground then.

Flagman
5-yo gelding / Deborah Faulkner / Kingman – Sense Of Joy

Promising performance in October at Kempton when he stayed on well. Badly outpaced in the home straight the next two times. Although, showed good early speed from the gate and travelled well.

Still lightly raced in interesting off 53 mark if he returns and moves up in distance, seems to be crying out for a trip. Full-sister won over 9 furlongs a Leopardstown maiden.

Invisible Friend
4-yo filly / Kevin Ryan / Sea The Stars – Stealth Missile

Lightly raced full-sister to smart handicapper Irish Legend. Fetched €160k as a foal. Won well on only second career outing despite showing serious signs of greenness, as she did on debut as well. Hasn’t been seen since August, though.

The form doesn’t amount to much as she only had three rivals to beat and the runner-up is rated 52. The fact she kicking clear nicely at a track seemingly she doesn’t enjoy, over a trip probably sharp enough, is encouraging.

The full-sister needed time as well and progressed nicely as a 4-year-old, stayed 10 furlongs+, and was potent on the All-Weather.

Majestic Fighter
4-yo gelding / H&R Charlton / Teofilo – Majestic Manner

Ran a huge race when last seen at Kempton after going wide all the way finishing very strongly. Ran a number of strong efforts in handicaps throughout the year.

Could have more to offer as a 4yo as he moves up in trip. Gives the impression he can get further than a mile, and has a chance on pedigree. Ran to an 80 speed rating, which means any improvement will see him become suddenly quite well-handicapped, potentially.

Prakasa
4-yo filly / Roger Varian / The Gurkha – Khor Sheed

Showed her inexperience in all three starts. Won well at Kempton at the second time of asking, though. Form isn’t worth much but she showed she doesn’t lack a change of gear. Travelled strongly dropped to a mile but not good enough on the day when last seen.

Looks open to plenty of progress if moving up to 10 furlongs. Family stays well. Opening mark of 78 looks potentially lenient.

Rampage
4-yo gelding / TG McCourt / New Bay – Hall Hee

Improved dramatically for his first Handicap start in July at Thirsk over a mile. Arguably unlucky to be beaten by tiny margin and the way the race panned out.

Was sold for £1,000 subsequently, after another encouraging run at Newcastle as he was up there for long time and possibly needed the run then. Also may find a mile too sharp.

Moved to Ireland in the meantime and travelled really well for a long time in a Handicap last week. Should have more to offer up in trip, especially of a potentially lenient mark. Dam’s offspring tends to improve over 10f, and runs well on the All-Weather.

Reach
5-yo mare / M&D Easterby / Sea The Stars – Ameliorate

Very lightly raced for her age. She created a good impression on her first two starts before winning in emphatic fashion at Pontefract in autumn, when upped to 12 furlongs.

She travelled strongly on Handicap debut subsequently, but faded badly over the shorter 10 furlongs; perhaps she paid for having three runs in rather quick succession.

The mare looks all stamina and should have more to offer off 74 going up in trip again, possibly with cut in the ground.

Vazire
4-yo filly / Andrew Balding / Frankel – Aricia

Lightly raced filly who improved nicely last year. Stepped up to middle distance without a problem at Chester after giving impression she would enjoy a trip. She won really well when last seen the way she travelled and kicked on.

The Chester form is strong and ties in well with the improve she showed from the previously quite eyecatching Sandown performance.

Every chance she can improve as a 4-year-old over middle-distance. Family tends to stay well, therefore even 12 furlongs not out of question. A mark off 82 could underestimate her early in the season – if she’s still in training, as she wasn’t seen since last June.

Wanees
4-yo gelding / Charles Hills / Le Havre – Waldnah

Was a super progressive three-year-old in 2022. Impressive the way he won when last seen at Haydock. Did it easily after pulling early on. Tends to be quite keen, but should stay 10 furlongs on pedigree if he can settle.

Every chance for further improvement as a 4-year-old and gelding. Revised handicap mark gives him plenty of options in hot handicaps or potentially moving up to lower graded level in the early parts of the season.

The Lincoln run last month can be excused given the ground was way too soft for him. But the run may help him to be a backable price next time.

Eyecatchers

Flat Horses To Follow 2023: 3-year-old Handicappers

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First part of a series that tries to pick out a number of intriguing horses to follow for the new 2023 flat season.

The main focus is going to be on handicappers that may fly under the radar or offer significant upside, judged on their current BHA Official Rating.

Ana Emaraaty
3-yo gelding / Owen Burrows / Awtaad – Sundus

Very green on debut and sole start in August. Gelded in the meantime. Will be interesting once in Handicap company over 10 furlongs.

Looks likely to enjoy softish conditions, appears to have quite a high knee action. Dam’s offspring tends to perform best with cut in the ground, so does Awtaad’s offspring (3yo Handicappers).

Amleto
3-yo colt / William Haggas / Sea The Stars – Holy Moon

Green on debut, improved effort in strong Kempton race subsequently, travelled quite nicely. Big drifter in the betting on both occasions.

Full-brother to Sea Of Class. Retains a Derby entry but unlikely to turn out that good now. Nonetheless, bound to improve dramatically as 3-year-old compared to what he showed last season, especially if he goes up in trip.

Alhambra Palace
3-yo colt / William Haggas / Le Havre – Lady Francesca

Slowly into stride in both career runs. Bit unlucky on debut, but didn’t get hard ride after becoming short of room over 2f out in heavy going. Finished well under easy ride at Kempton.

Was a £58k foal, a year later sold for £230k as a yearling. Related to some good winners and has pedigree to do well on turf as well as All-Weather, most likely seen to best effect once up in trip as a half-brother to Northumberland Plate 4th place finisher.

As a son of Le Havre he will enjoy races with emphasis on stamina. Needs one more run to qualify for a handicap mark.

Barrier
3-yo filly / Andrew Balding / Australia – Pure Fantasy

Temperamental, had issues out of the gate on both career runs. Final 2022 performance can be upgraded when unlucky in the home straight.

One to keep an eye out for the opening mark, very much depends on final qualifying start. A mark in the 70’s or lower would be interesting as she steps up in trip. Will likely need plenty of cut in the ground for anything below longer trips.

Australia’s record with 3yo fillies is strong; generally with 3yo’s in lower grade handicaps on stiff tracks, with cut in the ground is noteworthy and ties in nicely with the overall profile of the filly.

Birchmore Len
3-yo gelding / Michael Madgwick / Sixties Icon – Steel Free

Showed absolutely nothing in three runs as a juvenile. Opening mark of 61 is harsh on that basis.

Will only show his true colours once hew moves significantly up in trip, most likely 12 furlongs. Full-brother to modest staying handicapper Steel An Icon. Trainer knows this family well having trained the dam and some offspring.

Chinthurst
3-yo gelding / Jim Boyle / Nathanial – Sonnetation

Improved markedly on Handicap debut at Brighton. Found himself multiple times outpaced but kept showing positive attitude as he finished well up the hill and achieved a 53 speed rating.

The performance warrants an upgrade, as the form has worked out well in the meantime, and he starts the season only a pound higher than that day, (OR 55) now as a gelding.

Even more so, as a son of Nathanial you can be almost certain he will improve as a 3-year-old and as he moves up in trip. Could be seriously well handicapped.

Dog Fox
3-yo gelding / Ed Dunlop / Cityscape – Dragonera

Showed nothing in three runs over trips that were clearly on the sharp side. Will improve for Handicaps and going up in trip. Majority of dam’s offspring performs solid once upped to 10 furlongs.

There is also excellent All-Weather form in the pedigree. An opening mark of 63 looks stiff judged on juvenile form, but could underestimate him judged on potential improvement for trip and age.

Elterwater
3-yo filly / D & C Kubler / Camelot – Acquainted

Showed signs of improvement on Handicap debut when last seen in October when also quite well backed. Travelled nicely but didn’t have pace to match in the closing stages over 7 furlongs.

Is a full-sister to a smart Aussie performer over 1m to 10f who improved nicely in her days as a 3yo. She looked quite big last year and is possibly one to be most interested in Spring.

Should improve as she moved up to a mile in Handicap company; 10 furlongs shouldn’t be an issue either. New seasons OR of 59 looks ready to be exploited.

Eyetrap
3-yo colt / Jane Chapple-Hyam / Ulysses – Miss Dashwood

Excellent run in third place on final run in 2022 behind very smart winner. Opening mark could be lenient judged on this final run if he moves up in trip.

Vast majority of dam’s offspring improved with age and trip, and stayed 10 furlongs plus.

Folk Star
3-yo filly / David Simcock / Le Havre – Full Opera

Two lovely runs of educational matter in October 2022. Looked much better than bare results. Never asked a question, finished nicely, especially at Yarmouth. Will need one more run to qualify for a mark.

May foal. Plenty of scope to improve, especially as she goes up in trip. A stiff mile could be ideal before moving up further. Beautifully bred, with plenty of stamina on dam side; the mare improved with time.

Le Have offspring improves with age. His 3yo’s have a 21% strike rate overall (A/E 1.2) in Handicaps. Especially potent over 1 mile to 10 furlongs from July on. Ideally stiff or galloping tracks not on a straight track.

Gold Aura
3-yo filly / Richard Hughes / Golden Horn – Lady Haidi

Showed promise in three starts as a juvenile over 7 furlongs. Looks bound to improve for a step up in trip as there is tons of stamina on sire and dam side. Could possibly enjoy the All-Weather, too.

Opening mark of 72 looks more than fair, given her solid juvenile form. Up in trip she could turn out to be well handicapped.

Golden Horn offspring tend to improve dramatically as they step up in trip. His record with fillies is strong.

Galilaeus
3-yo gelding / Ralph Beckett / Galileo – Madame Chiang

Unremarkable three runs as a juvenile on the surface of the form. Finished at the back of the field in the Eyetrap race. Badly outpaced but finished seriously well in the final furlong.

Cost 200k as a yearling and had a Derby entry. Gelded in the meantime. Clearly will need to go up in trip to show his best form. Opening mark could be quite lenient as he’s very well bred.

Lady Rascal
3-yo filly / George Boughey / Nathanial – Theladyinquestion

Solid debut and sole run as a juvenile over inadequate trip. Most likely won’t show true colours before she steps up significantly in trip. Full-sister to smart stayer Nate The Great.

Fetched £270k as a yearling back in 2021. Could be seriously underestimated by the handicapper once she had three qualifying runs.

Made seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton in 9.5f maiden. Encouraging effort without ever threatening.

Mudskipper
3-yo colt / David Menuisier / Le Havre – Arendelle

Ran incredibly well in two of three runs as a juvenile, both placed performances can be marked up and look possibly strong form, judged through the winners.

Will be interesting as he goes up in trip. By Le Havre out of a Camelot mare, 10 furlongs will suit really well. Opening mark not a giveaway but with improvement to come as a 3-year-old could have something in hand.

Tribal Master
3-yo gelding / Ralph Beckett / Mastercraftsman – Snoqualmie Star

Gelded before debut run, showed nothing in two starts last year, but 7f way too short. Is a full-brother to smart stayer Tribal Craft (and modest staying handicapper).

Should get a low enough opening mark post qualifying run that could be exploited once he moves up significantly in trip.