Tag Archives: British Champions Day

Betting

Saturday Selections: 21st October 2023

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1.50 Ascot: Group 1 British Champions Sprint, 6f

It’s going to be interesting to see how the track rides and the draw it’s going to favour on this going, with the switch to the inside track.

This race could – certainly from a pace angle – shape to favour the lower drawn horses. That should very much favour Kinross who isn’t drawn too far away from those who’ll likely move forward.

Nonetheless, there are two bigger prices that I quite like to possibly outrun their odds: the two fillies Swingalong and drawn right beside her, Believing.

Both ran huge races in the same race last time out at Haydock, when third and fourth in the Group 1 Sprint Cup. Different track and ground today, yet the two fillies have shown to handle soft underfoot conditions.

Swingalong started off her season with a fine effort in the Fred Darling on deep ground. She didn’t get home in those conditions over 7 furlongs, and certainly didn’t stay a mile in even worse conditions at Longchamp in the French 1000 Guineas.

But when dropped to 6 furlongs in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, she outrun her big odds to finish a superb 3rd. She followed on to show excellent early speed and guts in the closing stages to land the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York.

At Haydock, when last seen, she was completely isolated on the stands’ side, which wasn’t ideal. The filly did well to hang on for fourth and probably could have finished much closer if she would have raced as part of the main field, I felt.

Believing raced just on the outside of the main bunch for the most part of the race that day, and she finished closer to the stands side ultimately, racing without company for the last two furlongs, which wasn’t an advantage. I loved her attitude, nonetheless, as she kept on for third place all the way to the line.

She achieved a career-best speed rating of 100 that day, having shown excellent improvement from a strong 92 showing at Pontefract when she won against the run of race after a less than ideal start from a wider than ideal draw, coming from well off the pace.

The filly is progressing all the time this year despite her relative experience with 14 career runs under the belt. She won three times this season and did so on soft ground as well.

Her draw looks ideal, she probably will be forward enough with headgear fitted for the first time, and if she tracks Swingalong, she may get a nice lead into the finish.

Swingalong herself has ran 97 speed figures back-to-back now, and may not have reached her peak yet. She has form on soft and possesses possibly a bit of extra stamina that could be key for her to stay in front in the closing stages. She has to improve again, though, that’s clear also.

This is incredibly competitive, though. Things have to go right from start to finish for both these fillies to outrun their price tag. However, if things fall right, these two fillies clearly have the ability to finish a lot closer than 30/1+ odds suggest.

5pts win – Swingalong @ 35/1
5pts win – Believing @ 31/1

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3.05 Ascot: Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 1m

What a brilliant field. A true race of champions. But does the ground change the trajectory of the race? I definitely think so. This is going to be a fast race, on soft ground. It’ll take solid cruising speed and stamina to win.

I have worries that this isn’t the right test for brilliant Tahira to bring the best out of her, as mouth watering a clash with Paddington is on paper.

Paddington is the one to beat. He’s a superb miler and possibly an even better horse over ten furlongs. He ran two 110+ speed ratings this season and has won on any ground. This mile test with cut in the ground could be an ideal test.

On the other hand, his very best form came on better ground. He also had a lot of racing and didn’t fire at York when last seen. AOB is the master to get his stars back on track, so you would think Paddington comes here in the form of his life.

Nonetheless, given the price is short enough, I think one can be bold and take this superstar colt on.

Nashwaa over a mile is one to consider. She ran 100 and 106 speed ratings the last two times over 10 furlongs. However, again the ground is a slight question mark, as her best comes on better going as well. Still, this testing mile should suit.

Chaldean over a mile on softish ground at Ascot could be a perfect match. He looks a touch overpriced.

However, clearly the one who seems the forgotten horse in this field is Big Rock. Perhaps, some take a too negative view on his last two runs when beaten favourite.

In my view, this test will suit him tremendously well. The ground, the track and the fact he may not even need to make all but rather follow the pace closely, which should be hot enough – and if not he simply moves forward – looks perfect.

Prominent horses should be favoured here and once he hits the front he may be difficult to pass.

It’s true, though, he’s got to bounce back from a somewhat unconvincing 2nd place in the Prix du Moulin. He wasn’t the sharpest away, and possibly did too much in the early stages of the race.

If one is prepared to forgive him that below-par performance – still a runner-up performance in Group 1 company – then he’s right up there with the best in this field.

His second behind Inspiral in the Jacques le Marois is seriously strong form. The filly came from off the pace to overhaul him late. He achieved a superb 108 speed rating that day, nonetheless.

In hindsight, given what Ace Impact did since then, Big Rock’s runner-up performance in the French Derby looks even better than it did on the day itself.

He did a lot in front, and was only beaten in the closing staged by the subsequent Arc winner, who was ridden with much more restraint.

Overall, Big Rock has been a consistently top-class performer this year. I believe this track, trip and ground can bring the best out of him.

10pts win – Big Rock @ 8/1

Betting

Saturday Selections: 15th October 2022

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4.00: Ascot: Group 1 Champions Stakes, 1m 2f

It’s all about Baaeed. Unbeaten in ten career starts, he comes here after that massive performance in the Juddmonte International Stakes. He’s very much expected to win in style this afternoon.

Retirement beckons afterwards, and surely the smartest fillies are waiting for him in the breeding shed next year. That’s for then. It’s a bid for racing greatness here and now.

In truth, though, I have been somewhat reserved in getting overly excited about what Baaeed had done until he demolished a strong field at York in August.

The reason a simple one: I hold topspeed close to my heart as a KPI if it comes to judging race horses. Prior to the Juddmonte, Baaeed’s career-best of 106 was quite good, but far from brilliant – especially given the comparisons to the true greats of the recent past, like his sire Sea The Stars, or Frankel.

Even my beloved Paco Boy achieved much better; yet, I as the most enthusiastic Paco Boy fan in the world, have to admit, he was not one of the greatest the sport had ever seen.

Roll on the 17th August 2022: Juddomonte International Stakes – Baaeed eases into the lead, effortless, floating over the ground, majestically; he quickens in impressive style and slaughters a labouring Mishriff by 6½ lengths.

Nearly as important as the margin of victory: Baaeed achieved a topspeed rating of 124. Finally a superb performance on this measure as well.

Any concerns over the trip were convincingly put to bed. Connections decided against moving up to the Arc distance subsequently, though. Probably a wise decision in hindsight.

Baaeed – a perfect 10 out of 10 – is impossible to oppose today….. or is he? Most likely, I am clearly in the minority: I still question whether he deserves to be called a “true great”. In my view: not yet.

It’s possibly harsh to say he has to prove himself today. Yet, in my eyes he’s got to prove his greatness: a performance similar to York, and I am going to be fully on board.

That says, he faces two real dangers today: the ground and a fresh Adayar.

Softish ground isn’t a big deal, given Baaeed has won in these conditions in the past. However, he never faced a rival as classy as Adayar in these conditions. I firmly believe Baaeed can’t quite produce the same change of gear on this type of ground.

Baaeed is vulnerable: he produced a 94 best topspeed rating on ground when the word soft appeared in the going description. It’s likely he’s a better horse today than the last time he encountered softish ground; nonetheless, it’s a question mark.

That brings me to Adayar. The only serious opposition today. We haven’t seen much of last years Derby and King George hero. You have to worry about his disrupted year.

On the other hand, it gives him the opportunity to arrive fresh, without a hard season in his legs, after a solid, if unspectacular comeback run at Doncaster last month.

If – and it’s a proper if – Adayar is anywhere near as good as he was last season, then he’ll be a formidable danger to Baaeed. Because let’s remember, he produced his two best performances with cut in the ground in the Derby, and subsequently here at Ascot in the King George, then on fast ground. This versatility could be key.

He ran a huge race in the Arc toward the end of last season; one can forgive a subsequent poor run in the Champions Stakes. The drop to 10 furlongs is another question mark I have. On the other hand, given the softish ground, it could prove ideal, especially if William Buick is bold enough to kick on once the field turns for home. Adayar isn’t slow, and one thing is for sure: he will stay all the way to the line.

Tactically it’s going to be intriguing: what’s Crowley’s game plan? From the #1 draw, he may get boxed in, if he doesn’t move forward right away. I doubt he wants to be too aggressive early on, though. That’s a clear danger, especially if the ground takes something out of Baaeed’s turn of foot.

At the given prices, I simply can’t ignore Adayar. I have question marks. But I have them over Baaeed as well. He’ still by far the likeliest winner, mind. And the fan in me wants him to bow out in style. Yet, the punter in me says a fit and happy Adayar has a better than 10% chance to win a third career Group 1 this afternoon.

A shoutout for Royal Champion: a huge price, one who I feel could outrun this price tag (can be backed at 160s on Exchanges). I was hugely impressed with his recent Ayr run. One to keep an eye on for the future, in any case.

10pts win – Adayar @ 9/1

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3.50 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 6f

Perhaps it’s the end of the road for veteran Dark Shot after a number of recent below par performances; however, he was earlier this season still running to low 70 ratings, with a really strong run only back in July at Goodwood, when a neck beaten runner-up.

He was rated 69 and ran to topspeed 67 that day – a seasonal best on that measure, although it was especially his Doncaster 4th place finish a few weeks earlier that caught my eye.

He couldn’t back up those runs the last three times, but two came at Southwell on the All-Weather. He weakened badly in all three races, though. A worry.

But: Dark Shot won this very same race 12 months ago. He’s on a lower mark, will enjoy the return to soft ground and has a solid draw to attack the race from.

10pts win – Dark Shot @ 15.5

Betting

Saturday Selections: October, 19th 2019

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Ascot Grand Stand, by Florian Christoph

I’m short in time today, hence for now only focus on British Champions Day – Wolverhampton selections maybe later on today. Saying that, still looking for a first winner in October. Tough times…. and as my two selections are massive prices I can’t realistically hope that it’ll change anytime soon!

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2.45:  G1 Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, 1m3½f 

Looks a coin toss on form and ratings between four fillies, namely favourite Star Catcher, Oaks winner Anapurna and the Aiden O’Brien duo Fleeting and Delphina.

You can make solid cases for either of these, but the forgotten horse in this quartet is Delphina. Yes, she is yet to win on the highest level, and only three starts back was beaten in a Group 3 at Cork. The drop in trip may not be totally ideal, but then I think over this course with soft underfoot conditions it might well be.

For a start Delphina is drawn well, so she should be able to settle close enough to the pace which I feel is an advantage here. She will not have to work hard for that, unlike, for example at Longchamp when last seen where was drawn widest.

That performance in the Prix de Royallieu was an excellent performance, given she ran into plenty of trouble in the closing stages. It was also a nice progression from her excellent runner-up performance at Doncaster in the Hill Stakes.

That particular performance is interesting as Delphina ran to a 105 topspeed rating, which is the highest in this field. Granted it came on fast ground, but she proved in France that soft ground is no issue.

Given she has yet to win beyond maiden company she has a little bit to find with the market principles. However on official ratings that is a mere one or two pounds. If she still has something to give after a busy second half of the season I see her going really close today.

Selection:
10pts win – Delphina @ 24/1 MB

……….

3.20: G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 1m

With the tough going likely to slow down things significantly and the ground potentially suitable – well, certainly a change – I’m quite intrigued by Phoenix Of Spain today, given he also has a new jockey on board.

He was so impressive in the Irish 2000 Guineas, though hasn’t kicked on from there, although you couldn’t say he’s been running poorly, given he contested top class opposition on the highest level, and despite not coming close to win clocked 93 and 94 tospeed ratings in his last three runs.

That is far off the whopping 105 achieved at the Curragh, or the 101 at last years Futurity Trophy (on softish conditions!), but shows Phoenix Of Spain hasn’t gone dramatically backwards.

On the plus side also he might be a little bit fresher than some of the more fancied runners here. I hope he can overcome the wider than ideal draw and settle up with the pace. If so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him outrunning his price tag.

Selection:
10pts win – Phoenix Of Spain @ 25/1 MB

Betting

Betting Preview: Champion Stakes

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3.30 Ascot: British Champion Stakes, 1m 2f

On paper this is likely a match between odds-on favourite Cracksman and top rated Crystal Ocean. It’s also the duel of the super sires Frankel vs. Sea The Stars.

Cracksman is the one who’s likely to enjoy the soft going the little more. First time blinkers after a surprising defeat at Ascot when last seen is an interesting move by John Gosden. Personally I judge this as a big minus. One couldn’t help but feel, despite his early season wins, that Cracksman isn’t as good – or shall we rather say focused – as he was last season. The Coronation Cup scare already was a revealing hint, I feel.

On prices I probably would favour Crystal Ocean. He’s 4lb higher rated at the moment. Something to take with a pinch of salt, nonetheless it tells a story of a horse who’s at the top of his game.

In saying that, Crystal Ocean continues to chase the elusive Group 1 victory. While his runner-up performance behind wonder mare Enable at Kempton showed he remains as good as ever, with ground potentially too soft to be ideal and a trip potentially too short to be ideal, I find myself picking plenty of holes not only in to the odds-on favourite, but also the second fancy in the betting.

Capri? An interrupted season, has to be taken seriously still, after a damn good effort in the Arc. He could try to steel the race from the front, utilizing his superior stamina. He’s a fair price, for sure.

However, I’m drawn to a massive long-shot here. Jim Bolger’s Verbal Dexterity, last year’s National Stakes winner. Things didn’t go plan for him afterwards, clearly. And his latest showing in the Irish Champion Stakes is worrisome, despite a more than fair seasonal reappearance weeks earlier.

On the other hand the ground looks ideal for him, unlike at Leopardstown. Whether he can stretch out to 10f on soft going is an entirely different matter. Either way, I feel this lad has a big race in him. Jim Bolger continues to show faith, otherwise he wouldn’t bring him over.

As the only three-year-old in the race at the bottom of the weights, despite a massive price I can see him outrunning this price tag for at least a place.

Selection:
10pts Each/Way – Verbal Dexterity @ 28/1 PP

Racing Talk, Uncategorized

British Champions Day or the end of the flat

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Ascot Grand Stand, by Florian Christoph

British Champions Day is synonymous with the end of the flat season – hard to believe but the end of 2016 renewal is nearly upon us! It certainly passed me in the blink of an eye – or so it felt!

Honestly, I never really got into it. I missed out on many big days. Was just too busy with other stuff. I went to the Curragh just twice. Which is a crying shame.

Take simply: I never got emotionally involved in this season at all.

It didn’t help – I guess – my betting was brutal the first half of the season, slightly improved in the second half, though without ever coming close to making something like a profit.

Gotta to get going in the All-Weather season again, which usually works quite well if I put in the time and the effort. It’s something I enjoy. But for one last time, let’s have a look at those races of British flat season that do stand out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLAoGj51Plw

Thoughts and selections are below – follow them may lead to bankruptcy. So do it on your own responsibility:

2.00 Ascot: Don’t Touch E/W @ 66/1 Coral (1/5, 5places)

Wide open race and Don’t Touch is surely not a prime chance in this competitive race, given he has yet to prove his class beyond listed level. Nonetheless he’s a speedy sort with an impressive record over six furlongs and if the first time blinkers can edge out a bit of improvement then he is in with a shout to content for the placing at least.

2.35 Ascot: Zhukova @ 5/1 Bet365

Potentially a minefield this race, but Dermot Weld’s filly has the right profile to win it.
Still not too many miles on the clock, lightly raced this year while unbeaten in 2016, she usually is not too far off the pace which I feel could be crucial today.

3.10 Ascot: Hit It A Bomb @ 25/1 Ladbrokes

Hasn’t hit the heights of last season in  two starts since his return, but may improve from those two runs and the light season could be an advantage today if he is still as good as he promised to be as a juvenile. Conditions should suit him. Of course he has a bit to find on form and the ratings with the likes of Minding and Galileo Gold.

However one shouldn’t forget they have had a hard and long season that started quite early as well, so they may well run not to their true form today. A bit improvement from HIAB and a bit regression from the key contenders, and the 25/1 looks a huge price.

3.45 Ascot: Jack Hobbs @ 14/1 Ladbrokes

It’s probably a stupid bet trusting a horse that has been pulled up when last seen over half a year ago, running after a long lay-off in a race as deep as this is. But regardless, I feel the price is too big. In theory Jack Hobbs should be getting better the older he gets.

Now more mature after a summer off, John Gosden can get his horses ready first time out and Jack Hobbs won FTO in the past – I like the fact that he should be in the right spot when they turning for home, given he is usually right up with the pace, so does not need in-running luck, which will inevitably play a role today for some of the more fancied runners.

4.05 Catterick: Machine Learning @ 5/1 Bet365

Fine winner on penultimate start, probably should have won under penalty the next time. Still on a fair mark and now heading to Catterick for the first time. Michael Bell has an excellent record here, even better with those he brings here for their first run at this odd track. Fine Apprentice is booked, trainer and jockey enjoy some success together – from bottom weight Machine Learning must have a big chance.