Tag Archives: Ascot

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Friday Bet – Keep In Line Can Go Close

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Twilight Son

3.45 Ascot: Class 3 handicap, 1m 4f

Tight and competitive field, with plenty of horses in with a chance to go close. But I believe Godolphin’s three year old colt Keep In Line is overpriced.

He has still not too much mileage on the clock and room for further improvement. It probably is fair to draw a line through his most recent run at Pontefract, where had to overcome a wide draw, was keen early on, and travelled always wide. He made a big move turning for home five wide but eventually didn’t handle the undulations of the Pontefract home straight at all.

He can race off the same mark again here, which is 4lb higher than his last win which came on his penultimate start at Windsor in softish conditions. So he shouldn’t mind the testing conditions at Ascot. He won with a bit in hand that day, therefore I believe it’s fair to give him another chance now, given that the draw is much kinder and the conditions very much likely to suit.

Keep In Line @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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Preview – King George VI

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Ascot Grand Stand, by Florian Christoph

Will Golden Horn run? We don’t know yet. The ground is soft, and despite the fact that the sun is out, it won’t help to dry quickly enough. I suspect that the hot favourite won’t take up his chance here. But regardless of whether he is in or not, it should be an intriguing affair as not too many are suited by the conditions.

Well, Clever Cookie surely is. He’ll love every drop of rain in the ground. He is in top form, won two on the bounce and should have things the way he likes it. I think he is potentially overpriced, but also feel he may be tactically disadvantaged with his usual running style – he simply might get going too late. It could be difficult to peg back some others who are attempting more aggressive tactics.

I believe Snow Sky is a major runner here today, with or without Golden Horn. He stays further than 12 furlongs and might be actually better over two additional furlongs, but he proved his class in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot over this trip when he was very impressive to land it from the front.

He may not get the lead this time, but will surely be prominent nonetheless. That will enable him to kick on 3f out, turning for home. He has a bit of a change of gear, so may be able to put some lengths into the rest of the field at this stage. And one thing is assured – he’ll stay.

This Nayef son is a typical Sir Michael improver, he’s blooming this year. The ground of course is a question mark. His best performances came on a quick surface. However he used to win his maiden on bottomless ground with ease, so he is probably fine.

There aren’t too many others who appeal to me. Flintshire is a quality runner, but he’ll hate the ground. Eagle Top isn’t sure to enjoy it either. While Postponed remains one with potential but has never encountered these conditions before. Romsdal has yet to win on turf, though the filly Madame Chiang has course and distance form on soft ground as she was victorious at British Champions Day last year.

She is an intriguing contender. Track, trip and ground will suit. Her seasonal comeback run over shorter 10f in the Middleton Stakes wasn’t all that bad, however she hasn’t been seen since, which is a concern.

And what about Golden Horn – if he runs? Of course he’s the one to beat. His record speaks for itself and he has the vital weight for age allowance on his side. But the ground is a major worry. Yes, he won his maiden on good to soft, but he looked so exceptional on a fast surface – I’m worried.

Verdict: I’m prepared to take on Golden Horn in these conditions ans believe Snow Sky has a major chance. He shouldn’t mind the ground and tactically the race could pan out to perfection for him. He’s a big price.

Snow Sky @ 15/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

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Preview – Lightning Spear has the class!

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Newmarket July Course

It has been rather quite this week for me personally…. there was brilliant racing on offer the last number of days at Newmarket, but I couldn’t been arsed. Life is busy, and some days off the horses can do the world of good sometimes. I feel fresh and rejuvenated in that sense at least. Let’s give it a proper go today – there is top class sport on offer!

2.45 Ascot: Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2), 1m

I’m prepared to take on favourite Arod. He’s clearly top class but the slight drop in trip is not sure to suite on lightning fast ground. He is a fair price, but nothing more.

In the same ownership, progressive Lightning Spear made giant strides this season. He followed up on an impressive display at Lingfield with an even more impressive performance at Salisbury last month. Bumped at the start, stuck in traffic until late, he stormed clear under 9st 10lb when finally in the clear. He’s a major player today.

The joker, if you wanna say so, is Bow Creek. Excellent last season, he was clearly not himself on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown earlier this year. If he can find back to his best he’s dangerous.

Lightning Spear @ 7/2 VC – 5pts Win

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2.35 Newmarket: Superlative Stakes (Group 2), 7f

Hard to look past Aiden O’Brien’s extremely well bred Air Vice Marshal. He was pretty green on his debut but came on a truckload the next time. Admittedly, the maiden he won at Gowran Park isn’t worth an awful lot but the way he did it was ultra impressive. He could have won by any distance. He is good looking, big and scopey and has the pedigree to do well as a juvenile

Main danger is William Haggas’s War Department. Forget his Ascot run, it just wasn’t to happen for him that day. He looked good on his debut though and should be competitive today. But on the prices, I feel the Irish raider is  overpriced and should be a full point shorter in my book

Air Vice Marshal @ 3/1 Coral – 10pts Win

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3.45 Newmarket: July Cup (Group 1), 6f

Two big prices against the two hot favourites: Due Diligence is one. I’m inclined to give him one last chance. At this time last year he had the world at his mercy, yet things didn’t go right from there on. Two disappointing efforts this year, a particularly dismal one at Royal Ascot – it might be that he has never recovered from his injury – but Aiden O’Brien wouldn’t bring him over if he wouldn’t think Due Diligence is in with a chance.

The other one I like is Danzeno. Rather lightly raced, he may still be able to pull out a bit more. He was unlucky at Newcastle last month following his excellent seasonal reappearance in the Temple Stakes. Trip, track and ground are sure to suit perfectly.

Danzeno @ 20/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win
Due Diligence @ 25/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.55 Newmarket: Class 2 Nursery, 7f

Favourite Majdool was very impressive at Chelmsford over this trip, albeit it was a poor maiden. He was fair runner-up behind Beaverbrook before, however, so is clearly the one to beat today on that evidence. Spongy shares collateral form with him and has a chance on the weights today, but probably needs a bit further given the way he stayed on to win lto.

Mark Johnston has his juveniles in top form this season. Aleko is no exception. Off the mark in a 6f maiden in excellent style, he failed to follow up at Epsom, though. Might be wise to ignore that run as he missed the break and was never comfortable at the track throughout. The step up to 7f is sure to suit on pedigree, and this well bred individual should do better now in nurseries.

Aleko @ 4/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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5.05 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

Space Age performance at Royal Ascot was freakish to a point, given his wide draw and the frenetic pace he set – yet it seemed it suited him to be in front alone. H deserves to be hot favourite today. He is up by 8lb but could be well able to defy this new mark.

But it’s Dartmouth who appears to be quite well handicapped, given he wasn’t disgraced in the very same race and can race off the same mark. He had a wide draw to overcome and had to travel three wide. throughout. Given the circumstances he ran a fine race. He is well bred, still lightly raced, and can do better today.

Dartmouth @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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Two against the field in Victoria Cup

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DSC_0947

Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap)

Can a race be more open? Probably not! 27 starters, plenty of horses in with a chance here but that often can lead to some huge prices and big value. While I do really like the favourite Zarwaan, I believe there is better value to find in this field. He’s a 12/1 chance and that in itself would look huge on any other day, but not today.

Cutting down the field to a handful of interesting runners, I got stuck with two exciting individuals that seem to be a bit overlooked here, though. Both have been progressive handicappers last season, and both confirmed that they have come well over the winter on their respective seasonal reappearance already.

Outback Traveller @ 18/1 SJ – 5pts Win: Trained by Jeremy Noseda, this colt smashed a fair field in a class 3 Handicap over course and distance on his final start in 2014. He looked like a ready-made pattern performer that day.

On his return last month at Kempton he was only beaten by the narrowest of margins while giving a good deal of weight away to the eventual winner. One would assume he’ll be a bit sharper today. It’s a big mark to defy, but he looks one able to be a big runner with conditions very much in favour.

Baraweez @ 18/1 SJ – 5pts Win: Massively progressive last season, the highlight was clearly when he landed a big Premier Handicap over 7f on Irish Champions Weekend. He was a good deal beaten on his seasonal reappearance in the Lincoln over 1m, but has had some excuses.

I believe he hit the front too soon when the pace collapsed in front of him and he had only one chance to try and go on. He travelled strongly up to that point. He’ll be sharper today, 7f looks perfect and he has his preferred quick ground. He may have still more to offer off a mark of 100. 

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It’s all Balder’s Success!

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hhHHmzAouA

The big race of the day was held at Ascot today. Despite only attracting a small field, the Ascot Chase shaped to be a cracker. In the end it was Balder Succes who won a deserved first Grade 1 outside Novice’ company. A good round of jumping, he travelled well throughout and beat smart filly Ma Filleule comprehensively.

Trainer Alan King was quoted afterwards: “He was very good today and since going over fences he has been good all the way through. He’s more mature now mentally. We’ve got to stick to the Ryanair route.”

Ma Filleule is likely to go down the same route. Second favourite Ballycasey was a big disappointing and dropped out as soon as it really mattered to show some fighting spirit. The 6/4 favourite Ptit Zig didn’t complete the race. He was a faller at the tenth fence. Thankfully he was quickly up to his feet and fine after the race

Global Racing

Weekend!

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Weekend!
It’s Weekend! Some great racing ahead. Several Graded races in the UK and Ireland. Ascot Chase on Saturday as the highlight of course, but there is also some great action at Gowran Park and Navan, plus some excellent All-Weather racing from Lingfield. Enjoy all the fantastic racing and good luck whatever you bet!