This a poor affair as you would expect in this class but it is noteworthy that Mr. Donohoe brings a horse over from Ireland for this race. He has a history doing so and has been rather successful in recent years, so one would think there is a reason why Virile is going to post at Newcastle tonight.
The four year old gelding has been racing on the UK All-Weather a couple of times earlier in his career, with career best achieved at Wolverhampton when 2nd in a decent maiden behind a good winner. Since then he has been seen largely in Ireland but wasn’t up to his marks.
However he looked far more into in his last two starts when he travelled notably well for a long time. He has been dropped to a career lowest mark nonetheless and will have the additional benefit of the 7lb claim of an apprentice in the saddle. I believe he could be seriously well handicapped in this field today for this reason.
Favourite Up In Lights is potentially very well handicapped on his debut in this company, and the weight for age allowance is a clear bonus. He may well hack up. But I believe there is massive value on Man Of Harlech, who could be a very potent threat here.
This will be the third run after a long break, during which he was gelded. He clearly needed his first run but was quite unlucky the next time at Sandown when poorly positioned and a clear run denied. However he finished very strongly with seemingly plenty left in the tank.
He drops in grade now, and this potentially easier opposition should help him to defy top weight. He is very nicely bred and comes from a family that does exceptionally well on the All-Weather. So the switch to this surface can be only in his favour today. At 9/2 he is an excellent alternative to the rather shortish favourite in my mind.
Good win for Harlequin Rock yesterday. Feels always good to get things right, as it doesn’t happen too often! Mass Rally looked to come storming home on the outside but faded away eventually. He needs more help from the handicapper these days. Katimavik was NR.
7.35 Ripon: Class 3 Handicap, 5f
This could be an excellent opportunity for the old boy Noble Storm to get back on the score sheet. The nine year old hasn’t been exactly close to winning this year but more often than not wasn’t disgraced nor far beaten.
He drops to a very handy mark now which should see him competitive in this grade, particular today with ground conditions sure to suit well.
Noble Storm @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
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7.50 Chelmsford: Class 3 Handicap, 10f
The two fillies at the top of the market could be hard to beat here. Talawat of bottom weight will go very close if she gets the trip against this better opposition. Martlet makes more appeal as she is proven over track and trip.
However I feel Taaqah is overpriced here. She went close over a mile at Chelmsford earlier this year, when runner-up behind Boonga Roogeta. She hasn’t been seen to best effect in her last two starts but the return to the All-Weather may help. She steps up in trip and that is the factor which may see her improving a bit again.
On pedigree she has every chance to do so as a son of Arch out of a Gone West mare who has a stake in multiple St. Leger winner Leading Light.
Taaqah has only one maiden win to her name yet, and that over 6f. It’s is not given that she appreciates the new trip. But it’s possible. There aren’t too many in this field with a realistic chance on handicapping terms and therefore I believe she is a rather big price here.
Taaqah @ 16/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win
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8.00 Cork: Give Thanks Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3), 1m 4f
This two times races filly Zhukova progressed nicely from her debut run when she landed a Navan maiden in fine style back in June. Trainer Dermot Weld was quite happy and was hoping she would make into a nice Stakes filly over further. Today is the chance.
She lacks experience in this field but is extremely well bred and should appreciate the step up in trip. With natural progression she can go close.
Yesterday afternoon at around 5pm I was pretty depressed…. but then came Dartmouth who got me out of the hole with his dominant success at Ascot. What started like a bleak day, ended in modest 10pts profit. Could have been better if not for hitting the post twice. Lightning Spear in particular was unlucky, as he ran into all sorts of trouble in the home straight.
3.45 Dundalk: Handicap (57-75), 7f
Good racing at Dundalk’s All-Weather today. The 7f handicap looks an intriguing contest. Favourite Ishebayorgrey has been a model of consistency and can race off the same mark as when he won a good 6f race at Leopardstown last month. Though he appears to be vulnerable over this trip; the additional furlong seems to stretch his stemina.
Some lightly raced and potentially well handicapped sorts can make their presence felt. Most interesting is Escapism on her handicap debut, however. The John Oxx charge has done not too badly in maiden races, most notably eleven days ago in a hot sprint. She travelled well but seemed to be out-sprinted in the closing stages.
She steps up to 7f now which should certainly suit on pedigree. Both sire and dam have won over this trip; in fact she is not badly bred at all. An opening mark of 66 is lenient in my eyes, given her most recent performance and the potential improvement to come over this trip. The All-Weather surface won’t be an issue either.
Escapism @ 7/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
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4.15 Dundalk: Marshes Handicap, 5f
Ultra competitive race with plenty of pace – it should be fast and furious. You can’t discount anyone lightly here, but Ger Lyons’ Ardhoomey is particularly well fancied in the betting after a good performance in a hot Curragh Premier Handicap. He did well to finish 4th from the position he came from and gets help from the handicapper who drops him below a mark of 100 now: his wind problems in the past are a concern, though.
My Good Brother showed a return to form when an unlucky fourth at Fairyhouse. He is down to a handy mark and should go close. Lightly raced Urbestchance is interesting here, dropping in trip on her handicap debut. She is open to any amount of progress.
Old boy Russian Soul will have to overcome a wide draw in order to get to the front in a race where competition for the lead is likely to be fierce. The big weight is even more likely to stop him anyway. Prince Connoisseur hasn’t been any good this year so far but slipped down to a dangerous mark if back to his best.
I really do like Kimbay, who appears to be overpriced. She has been very progressive the last two seasons, and it didn’t stop this year as she got close on her seasonal reappearance and then took advantage of a drop to her prefered 5f trip at Tipperary. Forgive her last performance at the Curragh where she wasn’t in a good position.
She has been dropped 3lb for that and is now effectively only 4lb above her last winning mark. She could be still well in, particularly today where she is returning to Dundalk’s All-Weather. She is unbeaten in three starts over course and distance and should be a major player of her low weight here.
Kimbay @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win
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4.50 Dundalk: Conditions Race, 1m 1f
Only three runners, and with Xebec exposed as a mid-80 rated handicapper, this should be a match between Outspoken and Don Camillo.
Outspoken was a fair runner-up behind stable mate Archangel Raphael. He is very lightly raced and open to further improvement, the switch to the All-Weather may not be an inconvenience. Says the slight drop in trip is not sure to suit given how one-paced he looked as well as easily outpaced one the tempo of the race increased turning for home. He’s clearly no superstar.
Dermot Weld’s Don Camillo was utterly disappointing last week in a listed event at Roscommon. However the race itself was a strange one, so was the ground. He was eased in the closing stages and may be better judged on what he did before. He wasn’t disgraced in Group company at Royal Ascot, and I liked what he did on the Dundalk All-Weather before.
He won here a maiden in great fashion and travelled all over older & more experienced rivals in a Handicap off a mid-90 mark the next time. He was outstayed eventually but should have learned plenty.
He was thought to be good enough to warrant an entry for the US Triple Crown series earlier this year, though he didn’t take it up eventually. Nonetheless quite well bred, by a Breeders Cup Classic winner, Don Camillo is likely to relish this trip and the surface. With a visor fitted for the first time, he can be sharper in the closing stages now.
This week didn’t started as I would have hoped – Starshaped made a mess of his race right at the start on Monday night. The widest draw is never easy but he was lazily out of the box, caught wide, way to far off the pace eventually and had zero chance. He stayed on very well, but clearly lacked focus. He needs blinkers I guess and will be of massive interest the next time once again – if headgear is fitted.
8.45 Kempton: Handicap (Class 3), 1m 4f
This race looks to be between the top two in the betting. You can forgive Majeed’s recent poor showing at Newmarket. He is better judged on the impressive performance here at Kempton before. However I feel the additional furlong today as well as the much bigger weight will make life tough and he’s easily oppose for that reason, particularly given his short price.
No doubt Plutocracy is a very talented, but also fragile individual. He had only ten career starts to date, which is low mileage for a fife year old. That says he’s best fresh anyway, his record clearly indicates that. I think you can draw a line under his Doncaster performance in November when last seen. Testing ground was never to suit. He run with loads of credit the other two times last season, though.
Off a handy mark today, he has a major chance in this field if he is fit and ready to go. Th trip is no issue and the All-Weather shouldn’t be one either. The yard is going well and the trainer/jockey combo has a 35% strike rate over the last twelve month – Plutocracy looks overpriced today.
Gelded since his most recent and actually rather promising run, Oriental Dream makes appeal from a feather weight in this poor low-grade Handicap. The four year old showed some okay form when racing on better ground, while never took to cut in the ground.
He was outpaced at Redcar last month, but finished well enough in the 6f sprint; the form of this race works out rather well.
Oriental Dream tries the All-Weather for the first time today and that may bring out some improvement. He is bred to go well on it, as his sire Sharmadal has a really good record on the synthetics.
Up in trip to 7f again should suit and he has a good draw plus a a 7lb claimer in the saddle. Not too many excused today, and would be no surprise to see him go close.
Fair little Handicap with Richard Hannon’s Thahab as the clear favourite. There are good reasons why this lightly raced Dubawi colt is as short as he is. Thahab is the only one with course form in this field – He won a maiden here earlier this year in taking style, albeit against rather poor opposition. He wasn’t disgraced in two subsequent hot sprint Handicaps, but this here is easier today and the step up to 6f will certainly suit.
The likeliest danger is going to be the filly Quite Smart. She has the advantage of bottom weight and is going to make her Handicap debut. She won a 7f Redcar maiden well enough from the front a fortnight ago, despite hanging badly in the closing stages. The drop to 6f must not be an inconvenience today as it should be a fast and furious race with emphasis on stamina in the closing stages.
Mambo Paradise was a fair Wolverhampton maiden winner in April. One could make excuses for her performance at York three weeks ago when she meat in-running trouble on multiple occasions. She deserves another chance but has still to prove that she is up to her current mark. She might be a better prospect than Elis Eliz long term, who was a close runner-up at Wolverhampton behind her but was unable to be competitive off a revised mark subsequently.
Top weight Teruntum Star won a good Class 2 Handicap as a juvenile, though failed to fire on his seasonal reappearance. He may improve for the run but has to overcome a big mark. Mimy Ridge has a second place over CD to his name but looks quite exposed. He’s likely to struggle here, while Frostman was a winner of a poor Bath maiden recently and has to improve a good bit.
Verdict: Favourite Thahab has found a good opportunity to score, but isn’t a price to invest in. A better choice could be the scopey filly Quite Smart. She is a fine looking individual and got off the mark a fortnight ago. With more experience she is supposed to improve. Going into this race with light weight, with an additional 3lb claim by talented Cam Hardie, she should be very dangerous as long as she takes to the surface, which is the key question mark.
Not much going on on the domestic front so lets head to South Africa for an intriguing Handicap on the Greyville Polytrack. Some really good horses are going to post there, most notably the top weight Blance Sheet, a 3 year old gelding who tried to take on the best in Graded company recently.
He’s not been disgraced but found it much easier when dropped into Handicap company the last time when landing a good MR98. He’s up in the mark and tries a new trip today – which he failed to stay in the past – so that is a negative for the short favourite.
Lightly raced Krambambuli took on much stronger the last two. He was a fair third in the Cape Derby, but couldn’t back it up. This is easier and he is likely to get the trip, but in truth he has only won a low-grade handicap to date.
De Kock’s Trip To Rio could be interesting if he stays the 1900m trip. He was second in a 1m Listed event on the poly last year but utterly disappointing when last seen in a MR92 Handicap. He could well improve, though definitely has to so as more is required here.
I’m quite interested in four year old Assegai. He is the only course and distance winner in the field and was impressive when landing a MR 90 Handicap over CD on his penultimate run. He wasn’t disgraced when fifth in a very hot Listed event subsequently, taking on seasoned top class graded hoses. He will find this today much easier. He had a little break since then but usually does very well as a fresh horse.
He has to be at his best in order to give weight away to the smart three year olds, though with conditions very much in his favour, might well be able to do so. Top jockey is booked today – at 10/1 he looks overpriced in this field.
Punchestown is truly alive! Some great jump racing all along, though a shame that Hurricane Fly didn’t quite get home strongly enough to beat old foe Jezki in the big 3m Hurdle. He remains a hero nonetheless, but probably deserves his retirement now. Anyway, betting wise I concentrate on the flat these days and there is a very interesting maiden at Lingfield’s All-Weather taking place….
4.10 Lingfield: Maiden 7 furlongs
A hot little race – I’m most interested in Godolphin’s Amazing Speed, though. This big, scopy filly is really well bred and no doubt will get much further in time. She should be good enough to get off the mark in a maiden over the seven furlong trip, however I hope. She really caught my eye in a competitive maiden over the same distance at Newmarket during the Craven meeting.
She didn’t quite enjoy the run of the race from her position further back in the field and was a bit short of room around 2f out. She had to switch in order to get a clear run but showed greenness, which is no surprise on her debut run. But the way she finished the race under a light hands and heels ride was utterly impressive.
Jockey James Doyle has only this one ride tomorrow, and that in itself is telling. They must rate the filly highly and I would hope for a big performance tomorrow, also given the fact that she should relish the All-Weather given her pedigree.
Dundalk last night has been great! As always – I have to say. It never disappoints. Of course it helps if your 10/1 selection goes in, though! It was my third visit to Ireland’s only All-Weather track. The course is often hailed by trainers for its consistently excellent surface. Well maintained, not much kick-back, and with the false rail installed it is a fair track to race on these days.
Punters alike favour the track because the form stands up and most importantly you can see some good horses in action as well, usually in the feature race on the night. So happened yesterday, as outlined in my preview. The Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Race saw some really nice sorts going to post and it promised to be a real cracker. It didn’t disappoint! A three runner photo finish – exciting stuff!
Postulation held on to win it for Dermot Weld and Pat Smullen. He finished a good runner-up behind subsequent John F Kennedy conqueror Success Days – so no surprise to see him going close here. Favourite Queen Nefertiti finished only third – but she should come on for the run and looked well in the parade ring before, like a filly that has clearly trained on.
Postulation
Runner-up The Happy Prince for Aiden O’Brien in hands of his son Joseph travelled like the winner until the furlong marker, but didn’t quite find enough in the end. Yet he followed-up with a good performance on his recent Limerick success and is a nice type for the future.
Shannon Soul was beaten in fourth but was clearly the most impressive individual in the parade ring. Put him in your tracker, he may be able to win a nice race soon.
Kilimanjaro was a nice winner for the O’Brien team in the last race on the card. He contested in two hot maidens last season, showed himself much improved on his second start back then, but really made visually a good impression here at Dundalk in the parade ring. He won the maiden over the extended 10f trip in good fashion, really seemed to get rolling in the closing stages. He has a Derby entry. You wouldn’t expect him to be good enough. But the first time hood helped and sometimes these O’Brien horses can improve explosively, as we all know.
Kilimanjaro
Personal highlight on the card was undoubtedly the win of Iron Major. If you read my preview yesterday, you know I tipped him to win at 10/1 – and he obliged duly. Inexperienced 10lb claimer Oisin Orr delivered a confident ride from the back of the field and went through an open gape 2f out. Iron Major found plenty when asked for an effort and was clearly well handicapped, as imagined beforehand.
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