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Kempton: Maputo A Rock Solid Favourite

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3.20 Kempton: Novices’ Hurdle (Listed), 2m

Maputo looks rock solid favourite and very hard to beat if he progresses as he promised in all his start over hurdles so far. A Group 3 winner on the flat and Group 2 placed as well, he has taken well to this discipline. Three starts, three wins, and a very impressive performance two weeks ago at Huntingdon brings him along nicely.

He didn’t win by much but was hardly off the bridle that day – the runner-up won a decent race subsequently by a country mile – so it’s fair to assume Maputo is potentially well up to Grade 3 level.

Swansea Mile is an interesting alternative. He wasn’t quite lucky on his debut run at Market Rasen. I feel he may have not the speed required over flat 2m on quick ground though. Returning Midnhight Shot hasn’t been anything of note so far but is open to improvement.

I believe Maputo is a clear favourite hear and should be odds-on. Coral’s evens looks out of place.

Maputo @ EVS Coral – 10pts Win

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Wolverhampton: Amazing Blue Sky Can Make All

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20.45 Wolverhampton: Handicap (Class 6), 1m 4f

There is not much depth in this race and that is the reason why San Quentin is such a short favourite. He certainly has the form to land this but has to overcome a career highest mark. He may well do so, as the only other real danger seems to be A Little Bit Dusty, who has form over course and distance.

But what is very much evident in this race: lack of pace. That brings notorious front-runner Amazing Blue Sky into the equation. The 12f trip is his absolut stamina limit, so one has to hope that no surprise comes out and presses for the lead – on paper ABS should have it all to himself and that can often be n advantage at Wolverhampton.

The veteran hasn’t too much in the form book at the moment and the yard is not in any sort of form. It’s a speculative pick, based on the facts of Amazing Blue Sky finding here the perfect conditions today, which means he can be competitive if he’s on a good day.

Amazing Blue Sky @ 16/1 Coral – 5pts Win 

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Selections for British Champions Day

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Territories

1.55 Ascot: British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)

I’m a big fan of lightly raced Sea Calisi who seems to have the right traits to land this Group 1. She has been progressive all year, making the transition from Group 3 to the highest level seamingless. A Group 2 winner in her native France in June, followed an impressive performance in the Yorkshire Oaks where she was unlucky not finish closer than her third place, one and a half lengths beaten by Pleascach.

Sea Calisi was a long-shot in the Arc Trial Prix Vermeille last month, but ran a big race when third behind Treve – who that day, was from another planet.

There is every reason to believe that this likeable three year old filly can still improve – I certainly believe a big victory is due! Her high cruising speed will allow her to make the progress from the back of the field from 4f out where it’s usually the crucial point for those held up.

Sea Calisi @ 13/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

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2.30 Ascot; Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

Still unclear what the situation is with Gleneagles. The ground is against him, so much is sure. Sollow in contrast is certain to run and will appreciate the underfoot conditions. On form he’s very hard to beat here. But Territories is an interesting alternative. The three year old with the weight advantage, has very strong form and should love the trip on slightly easy ground.

3.05 Ascot: Champion Stakes (Group 1)

Difficult race. I believe Jack Hobbs is not as much a clear favourite as the odds say, for the reason of his poor draw and the ground not really what he wants.

However from the older horses Fascinating Rock is a fascinating contender. He’ll love the ground and the trip, has been in excellent form this season and proved his class at this level – he should be right there when it matters.

Both Territories and Fascinating Rock have good chances to go close and be placed at least. They offer some “each-way-value” combined as a double.

Territories+Fascinating Rock @ 164/1 Paddy Power – 2.5pts E/W

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Kempton: Cascading potentially well in

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

8.15 Kempton: Fillies Handicap (Class 4), 7f

Milady could be too good if she stays the trip, which isn’t unlikely, but given the prices I feel fellow three year old Cascading is better value. She has been in excellent form in recent weeks, without getting her head in front. When last seen here at this scene, albeit over 1m, she looked the winner one furlong out, just to get a bit tired and get beaten by a shoulder eventually.

I’m not 100% whether she really has the speed required to win over 7f, but it is worth dropping back and try as despite a revised mark, she could still be well in, particularly in a race like this today, where most appear exposed.

Cascading can race as the bottom weight, and it should help going head to head with her own sex this time too. From a good draw, she should be in the perfect spot when it matters and it’d be disappointing if she isn’t in the money at least, given she finished only once in seven starts on the AW outside the placings.

Cascading @ 13/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Windsor: St Saviour Can Bounce Back

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Lexington Times

5.00 Windsor: Handicap (Class 4), 1m 2f

If the ground dries further it’ll be a big help to favourite Freight Train who is sure to try and make all. There is a bit of pace in the field though and with a bit of rain expected around Monday afternoon, soft patches are likely to remain in the ground, so it could expose the in-form Mark Johnston inmate.

Devonshire Place makes appeal dropping back to 10f. I’m worried though that his racing style will leave him with too much to do when it matters.

I feel St Saviour deserves another chance and could be quite a bit overpriced. After a below par effort at Sandown last month he has been dropped to a mark off 79 but in reality could be easily be a bit better than that.

He showed plenty of promise when 3rd here at Windor in a super hot maiden back in April, a form that works out extremely well. He got off the mark two starts later in a small field at Brighton but flopped subsequently as mentioned before. But it was a very competitive race in bottomless conditions off a higher mark – so lets draw a line through the performance.

Good to Soft ground at Windsor should suit well though as he acted well on it at Brighton, and with Oisin Murphy in the saddle, St Saviour may bounce back here.

St Saviour @ 12/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Betting: Sunday Selections

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Ivawood

3.05 Goodwood: Class 4 Nursery, 7f

Lightly raced Alabaaly only makes his second start in this company after showing some decent promise in three maiden races. First time blinkers lid him up the last time and he tired badly towards the end, yet finished 3rd nonetheless. Headgear has been dropped, he’s 3lb down in the mark and has been gelded in the meantime – a promising combination which should see him in much better light today.

Alabaaly @ 10/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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4.30 Chepstow PERSIAN WAR NOVICES´ HURDLE (Grade 2)

Emerging Talent sets a fine standard but can be opposed at a skinny price, given he has to prove that he can find something off the bridle – although the step up in trip should suit.

Against him Definite Outcome looks a reasonable danger. He is a former Irish point winner, who got easily off the mark in a NHF back in March when he looks still raw and green. He’s probably a nice chaser in the making but should take well to hurdling as well, for the moment. The trip must not be an issue and with the yard going well, he’s an interesting runner.

Definite Outcome @ 4/1 VC – 5pts Win

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Saturday Betting: Chepstow

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Becher's Brook

3.55 Chepstow: Hamilton Hurdle (Handicap, Class 2), 2m

I really like Stars Over The Sea to do well here. He seems on a fair weight given his excellent performances last season, where he finished 4th in two big Grade 1’s at Aintree and Punchestown. Chepstow has the best possible jumping ground today which will suit this him allot and given that he had done extremely well as a fresh horse in the ears before, I would expect him to be a big runner today.

Stars Over The Sea @ 10/1 Coral -5pts Win

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4.30 Chepstow: Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Group 3), 2m 3f 100y

Plenty to like about progressive Our Kaempfer. Trainer Charlie Longsdon has his string in excellent order at this time of the year, so Our Kaempfer should be primed for a big run. A first handicap start for this six year old who really excelled last season over hurdles, winning twice and rounding it up with a big effort in the Grade 1 Sefton at Aintree.

Good ground and the trip should suit perfectly today and with only five starts over timber under his belt there is every reason to believe Our Kaempfer can improve again this year. He’s a tasty price against the overbet first two in the market.

Our Kaempfer @ 10/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Saturday’s Flat Tipps

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Newmarket Rowley Mile

3.10 Newmarket: Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), 7f

Two super exciting colts go to post to fight it out here: Aiden O’Brien’s Air Force Blue and Godolphin’s Emotionless. Both created big impressions this season, both look special.

However I feel Air Force Blue should be a clear favourite here, given he already is a two times Group 1 winner – in fact he landed the two most important races for two year olds in Ireland, the Phoenix Stakes and National Stakes – and he seems to get better with each run.

The son of War Front has no issues with the ground today, after winning on yielding ground before. And he looked even more home over the 7f trip in the National Stakes than the sprints.

Air Force Blue @ 6/5 Racebets – 10pts Win

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5.35 Newmarket: Darley Stakes (Group 3), 9f

Mutakayyef is a very fair favourite to land this race but his odds offer no value so I go with lightly raced Ooty Hill who could easily be good enough to win at this level. He looked smart when getting off the mark last year at this venue but has had only two starts since.

A very promising runner-up effort behind subsequent Group 1 scorer Starof Seville was followed by a setback and a half year long lay-off. When he repapered at Newbury last month in an Arc Trial trainer Roger Charlton warned that Ooty Hill will most likely need the run.

The three year old colt dropped out tamely over 3f out which is a worry but he didn’t get a hard time either and one would hope the race has brought him along nicely for today.

Whether that is the case remains to be seen. Some horses never recover from their injuries. Ooty Hill deserves his chance today, though, and if he can find back to his form he’ll be a big runner with conditions very much to suit.

Ooty Hill @ 14/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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6.05 Chelmsford: Nursery (Class 5), 1m

Cogent makes his nursery debut and looks a very likeable sort. An opening mark off 70 looks stiff enough, but given the fact that he was far from disgraced in a super hot maiden when last time seen gives the indication that is a fair start. This son of Paco Boy is related to plenty of decent All-Weather winners and steps up to 1m which on pedigree will suit perfectly.

First time gelded today after a bit off a break, he makes plenty of appeal, given that sons of Paco Boy have often improved quite dramatically after a gelding op in the past. A good draw today is a help too – so in an open race, Cogent could easily outrun his odds.

Cogent @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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Kempton: Gelded Perche can be a big improver

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Belardo

6.10 Kempton: Maiden Stakes, 12f

Godolphin’s Perche cost a lot of money as a yearling and actually looked a promising sort on his two starts last year, albeit he showed some problems at the start in his final run back then. Back off a break in July, he reared at the gate and lost his race there. Gelded in the meantime, which usually works exceptionally well for sons of New Approach as well as trainer Charlie Appleby, he might be a bit more calm now.

Still lightly raced, he remains with loads of potential, and the 3lb claim of talented apprentice Kevin Scott as well as a good draw are a big bonus today. The step up to 12f is a slight question mark, albeit far from impossible.

Perche @ 9/1 VC – 5pts Win

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Market Rasen: Big Price’ Harris Can be involved

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Leicester Racecourse home straight

3.50 Market Rasen: Handicap Chase (Class 4), 3m 

Hard to put too much faith in any of the six starters, including the short favourite Ready Token. He has the best form in the book and has an ideal chance to overcome a career highest mark today. Whether he is good enough to do that, we’ll see.

From the bigger prices the Alan Brown runner Harris jumps out. He’s back after break but should be very much involved if fit, He won a Class 4 Handicap Chase at Bangor in April on good ground, but something was amiss the next next time. Off since then, and admittedly not a truly reliable sort, but still only five pounds higher today than his last success – what looks strong form .

Conditions should suit well and the yards goes well enough – so I can see Harris being very much involved here.

Harris @ 14/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

Horse Racing Around The Globe