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Bangor: Keychain’s value

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National Hunt Fence

3.30 Bangor: Class 4 Handicap Chase, 2m 1f

A brutal race, extremely uncompetitive and I can only see three horses with realistic chances to land it, while none of these can be trusted to deliver, though. Gee Hi on old form makes appeal, but a more than two years long lay-off he hasn’t been exactly excelled over fences in two starts and it is hard to know what to get.

Seemingly the best chance is Chankillo, who brings winning form from a lower class chase over 19f into this race. The drop in trip may not be a problem and if he can overcome a career highest mark then he’s clearly the one to beat… if he can.

Best value appears to be Keychain. He is down to his last winning mark and was slightly unlucky a fortnight ago at Huntingdon when he stayed on strongly in third after a troubled run. The drop in trip on good ground at a sharp track seems not ideal, but he has won over 17f in the past and has as good chance to win this race as anybody.

Keychain is more than double the price of Chankillo, so it’s clear to me who’s the better value. That says none of these will likely ever find a better chance to win race.

Keychain @ 11/2 VC – 5pts Win

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Tuesday Selections: Catterick

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

1.10 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 4f

You can discount half of the field on ground concerns pretty easily, and given the nature of the track, usually favouring handy sorts, it brings the list of contenders down to a handful.

I like to go with a type likely to act in the soft conditions, has form on this strange course and is sure to be up with the pace. Multellie jumps out in this field at 9/1, given he has excellent form to offer, if we forgive him his latest run at Chester from a wide draw in better class.

Down here in class 4, he has a handy draw, won really well at Ripon three back, and confirmed his well-being subsequently with another bold bid here at Cattrick over 12f in a very hot race. He’s on a high mark but with conditions sure to suit he’s overpriced in this field.

Multellie @ 9/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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2.15 Catterick: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Plenty in with a chance here but I’m very much drawn to Woody Bay who drops back to his preferred 7f trip as well as in class and looks still on a pretty good mark. He won here over CD last month in excellent style, beating two well handicapped rivals in second and third. He followed up with a strong performance in a hot Class 2 Handicap subsequently, but was found out for the 9f trip when last seen.

With his course and distance form and the soft ground sure to suit, as well as recent forms all franked, he is a likely sort to go close and certainly overpriced. Only concern is the wide draw obviously. He will need to overcome it somehow. If he can get a good break and is right up with the pace early on he will have a great chance.

That’s the obvious question mark as the race may be already lost after the start. I’m prepared to take the risk as even that factored into the price doesn’t justify 8’s in my mind.

Woody Bay @ 8/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Betting: Monday Selections

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Leicester Racecourse

A really nice performance by Sound Investment at Aintree yesterday afternoon brought the week down – finally a positive one, betting wise. Sound Investment jumped well, travelled well and out battled his rivals in the closing stages, powering home in the final furlong. Some sight, for me in particular, given that my selections haven’t done that all too often in recent weeks.

1.50 Leicester: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

An open looking affair here at Leicester in the mud today, with most of these having no issue with this type of ground whatsoever. Least the favourite who looks well handicapped on old form and will be difficult to peg back should he enjoy an easy lead up on front. So Robert The Painter is certainly the one to beat, but a rather shortish price in this strong field…

Top of the weights Educate has been disappointing since finishing second in a Listed event back in May. He drops to a handy mark though. Question mark is whether he has the form to take advantage of it. Marcret in contrast certainly has been in good form lately and another good run is on the cards, he isn’t all that well handicapped, on the other side.

Veteran Pintura finds the mile trip his limit stamina wise usually, but he’ll enjoy the conditions today. He showed plenty when close runner-up at the Galway festival in an ultra competitive affair back in August and was a shade unlucky not to win at Ayr one month earlier. He’ll be competitive if the sparkle is back.

Not harshly treated by the handicapper has been Jack’s Revenge after a good runner-up effort at Chester recently. His poor strike is a concern, however. Athletic may find this trip a tick too far in soft ground conditions, but has place claims, at least.

Polar Forest is only 2lb above his last winning mark, although has found life difficult whenever he stepped up in class. He loves these conditions, so can’t be ruled out, still. And the same goes for Spirit Of Law, how might prefer it a bit further generally, but will enjoy the slow conditions. Hard to know what to get from Storm Rock today, but he is still lightly raced, so may have more to offer.

Summary: You can’t rule out any of the nine runners, although some have better credentials than others. I really like Robert The Painter but not his price tag. I take a chance on Pintura instead. He hasn’t been in good form lately, but if he finds back some sparkle he can be dangerous. He’ll be competitive off his current mark, given he finished a head beaten second at the Galway Festival. He’s the overpriced runner in this field in my mind.

Pintura @ 25/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.55 Ayr: Novice Handicap Chase (Clas 3), 2m 4f 110y

I feel the favourite Jack Steel is quite a skinny price. I can see why, to an extend: lightly raced and potential for big improvement. But does he look like a chaser? I’m not sure. He is a full-brother to two horses who have achieved zero – I’m prepared to take him on.

I really like the look of the grey Un Noble instead. He is a big, scopey chaser in the making, equally lightly raced. He won a Handicap Hurdle earlier this year in nice style over this sort of trip and any cut in the ground won’t inconvenience him. Un Noble is the type of horse sure to improve for the switch to fences and therefore represents better value than the favourite.

Have to call out Dr Moloney as well, who is likely to benefit from the drop in rip . However I have reservations about the ground and he might be one to keep an eye on for the future.

Un Noble @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Wincanton: Don’t underestimate Best Boy Barney

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Aintree parade ring

2.30 Aintree: Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2)

It’s easy to see why Danimix is favoured to complete a hat-trick today. He was utterly impressive in his last two, for whatever reason clearly a rejuvenated horse and this race doesn’t look too deep. Question mark is a career highest mark.

Better value than the 5/2 favourite may be Grade 2 winning chaser Ely Brown. It is a concern that he didn’t complete either of his last three races, but the break will likely done him the world of good and his record as a fresh horse is remarkable. He has won twice at Aintree before and also over the 3m 1f trip.

He gets a big chance by the handicapper, having been dropped to 135 now – his last winning mark, albeit over hurdles. But judged on Novice Chase Grade 2 success, he could be leniently treated today, if he can find his old sparkle back. Top jockey is booked, so he has every chance to run well.

Ely Brown @ 6/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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2.45 Wincanton: Handicap Chase (Class 3)

Competitive stayers contest where most of the eight starts are in with a fair chance. The “sexy” horse the Nicholls favourite Cowards Close but given the competitive nature of this race, he’s a skinny price. If According To Trev could find back to his best form, he’d be a prime selection for this race, but his last three starts are clear reason for concern.

I do like Handy Andy as the bottom weight to go well, his poor win record puts me off though. Forgotten Gold and Standing Ovation have a decent shout in this, but Best Boy Barney looks underestimated in this field.

He has been mostly competitive in his last handful or so starts, rarely goes really wrong. He won at Kempton back in April a good chase and followed up with another nice performance at the same venue when runner-up behind Champion Court – a very strong piece of form.

He didn’t quite run to the same sort of form the next two, but this here looks a bit easier, and with conditions sure to suit as well as fitness assured, he could run a big race.

Best Boy Barney @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Preview: Monet’s Garden Old Roan Chase

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Aintree Racecourse

A hugely competitive renewal of this Grade 2 race, certainly a tougher contest than the one Wishful Thinking won last year. The 12 year old has a difficult task on hand to try and defend his crown. Because he is down to last years handicap mark he is not completely out of it, but others make certainly more appeal.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Johns Spirit is one of those well fancied runners. He’s done remarkably well as a fresh horse in the last number of years, so a bold bid is expected. A career best is required, but this progressive chaser has a good chance to go close judged on his fair effort in the Grade 1 Melling Chase when last seen at this very same venue.

Rajdhani Express has won here at Aintree over the Grand National fences on his final start last season. He is competitive on that particular form obviously, although his win record isn’t all that impressive and a big mark makes life not easy today against excellent opposition.

Always improving over the last two seasons has been Paul Nicholls’ charge Sound Investment. The seven year old won four of his ten starts over fences and was placed in three more of those. He rounded up last season with an excellent Grade 3 success at Newbury and connections will hope for further progress this year.

He already has a prep run under his belt – he run okay in a competitive Grade 3 hurdle a fortnight ago and was lucky not to exit the race after the first when his young jockey almost fell off. He’s expected to come on for the run and that should put him right into the mix here of a good mark.

Another rather lightly raced sort over fences is Buywise, who already has a Grade 2 success to his name. Last season he only won over hurdles, although he was competitive in strong races, mostly around Cheltenham. He’s on a competitive mark but will need to prove that he can act on this flat speed track as well.

Duke Of Navan is an interesting contender. So far mostly tested over two miles, he will step up in trip and we find out whether his stamina holds up. If he stays the distance he’ll be right there when it matters I suspect.

It’s hard to trust Splash Of Ginge these day but on best form he can be in the mix. The Irish bring over Lord Ben. A versatile chaser, who was not disgraced when last seen at Listowel behind a good Gigginstown winner, although more is required here.

You can’t fully rule out Brave Spartacus who has fitness on his side. He’s already a Listed Chase winner and could improve again. It’s harder to make a case for Surf An Turf and also Le Bacardy, as those two will have to prove their worthiness in this competitive field.

Summary: This is an excellent renewal: competitive and close to call. Price wise I feel Sound Investment makes the most appeal though. He’s expected to be fit and is a progressive sort, probably not at the end of the road yet in terms of improvement and should love the conditions here. His mark gives him every chance and connections had this race in mind for a long time.

Sound Investment @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Newbury Preview: St Simon Stakes

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Newbury

2.25 Newbury: St Simon Stakes (Group 3), 1m 4f

Hard to put much face into any of the nine horses – although Romsdal, judged on his placed efforts, would be an obvious pick. But his strike rate is poor, and the fact that he only won on the Kempton All-Weather and never really excelled in similar races like this today means he is one to oppose.

Favourite filly Koora is a likeable, lightly raced sort with room for further improvement. But given what she has done so far it’s impossible to see any value in her 5/2 price tag.

I like Rawaki from the older horses. He has a profile to do well here, if in the right mood. You definitely can’t rule out progressive three year old filly Melodious either, though she has to prove that she can win on this level over a trip that far.

The most intriguing contender, and clearly the one with the most scope for improvement, is three times raced Moderah. She comes into this race as a relatively fresh individual, having only two starts this season. She made a big impression when getting off the mark last month in a Leicester maiden. Travelling all over her modest rivals, finding plenty when given a tiny bit of reign in the final furlong.

Obviously she has it all to prove, stepping up dramatically in trip. But with the fair chance of improvement this seemingly talented individual makes loads of appeal to me. In the context of the race I believe she is too big a price.

Moderah @ 6/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Saturday Betting: Cheltenham

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DSC_0565-2

Nice drift for Dark Spirit today, who won nicely at 11/1 in the end, storming up the hill for her inexperienced rider in the saddle. A relieve, a nice, big winner – finally again! It didn’t continue that way. Drumlee Sunset finished only 2nd. He was beaten for speed in the end.

2.10 Cheltenham: Class 2 Handicap Chase, 2m

Question marks surrounding most of this field, but I do really like Going Concern for the in-form Evan Williams yard. a progressive sort last season over fences, he has won three of his last six starts. He has to defy a career highest mark and was disappointing when last seen in April, but has done well off a break in the past.

Conditions should suit down to the grounds, with the rain expected over Cheltenham tomorrow not having to be an inconvenience

Going Concern @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.30 Cheltenham: Class 2 Novice Chase, 2m 4f

I was initially very much drawn towards Parlour Games. The classy Novice hurdler left a lasting impression but whether this flat bred gelding can take to chasing is very much up in the air. Also I had the perception that he is best on a flat track and that Cheltenham doesn’t quite suit.

As the value alternative I really like Double Shuffle though. Bred to be a chaser, he is still lightly raced, was progressive last year, has form in an Irish point to point and will love the trip. He has only won at flat tracks yet, so Cheltenham is very much an unknown. But with the low weight he makes appeal.

Double Shuffle @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Friday Betting: Cheltenham Selections

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The Festival

3.20 Cheltenham: Class 2 Hurdle, 3m

I missed the big prices for Dark Spirit but still feel the current odds represent some fair value in this field for a mare that likes the track, the ground and has won over this sort of trip in the past. Her record fresh is fine and the drop back into handicaps will suit.

She wasn’t disgraced in much better races towards the end last year, however clearly found out for class there. She remains a progressive mare nonetheless and is on fair mark. The help of a decent 10lb claimer is a bonus though, given that the yard is going strongly in recent weeks too.

Dark Spirit @ 6/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.30 Cheltenham: Maiden Hurdle, 2m

Drumlee Sunset is a very exciting prospect. Connections paid some good money for him at the sales after he won a pretty good point to point in Ireland. He justified optimism when landing an Exeter NHF in February.

He should be ready to go and instead while the quick ground in combination with the minimum distance is a slight concern, I would expect him to have too much on the plate for his rivals here. Connections could have targeted a better race to start off but want to give him an “easy” race to start the campaign off, building from here on.

Drumlee Sunset @ 11/8 Coral – 10pts Win

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Tuesday Selections

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DSC_0947

2.20 Windsor: Class 5 Nursery, 6f

Recently gelded and with first time cheek-pieces I feel Another Boy deserves another chance. He drops in class as well has been given a chance by the handicapper after a couple of decent, albeit far from exciting performances. He third placed effort in a three runner race lto doesn’t look exciting at all. though it came against two pretty decent rivals and the form looks good. The race wasn’t run to suit him, yet he stayed on to be beaten only two lengths after all.

A return to a bigger field should help. And if the gelding op and headgear have any sort of positive effect, he should go close today – although the draw isn’t the kindest. He seems a bit overpriced nonetheless.

Another Boy @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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8.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 1f 103y

Horrible race with not much recent form on offer. However Vastly makes plenty of appeal here, dropping in class and stepping up in trip after two very respectable efforts on the All-Weather over 1m. The gelding didn’t appear to like Chelmsford lto and was badly outpaced, though was game and genuine in the closing stages in a race that looks not too shabby on paper in terms of how the form has worked out since.

Vastly has won over course and distance in the past, albeit pre-tapeta times. He’s done that in February 2014 of a mark off 68, had since then only four more starts, the last two respectable, as mentioned. He’s 6lb lower rated at the moment, so that gives him an excellent chance in this field to find back to form.

A decent 3b claimer has been booked for the ride, which adds to the arguments pro Vastly here. If he can only improve slightly for the last two outings and the trip, he’s gonna go very close.

Vastly @ 9/2 William Hill – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Big Race Preview: Canadian International

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Second Step

No surprise to see the Europeans dominating the betting for Canada’s major Group 1 on turf. Sir Michael Stoute brings over fast ground loving Cannock Chase who seems to hit top form at the right time of the year. He’ll love this track, fast ground and the trip plus first time Lasix administered will give him the edge – he’s the right favourite….

….. but at the same time a very skinny price given thathe hasn’t fulfilled the promise this season yet. While in good form at the moment, no doubt, it is a big step up from winning at Listed race to go on to win at the highest level. While I have him down as the likeliest winner nonetheless, I can’t trust him betting wise.

On ratings and form Luca Cumani’s Second Step is the biggest danger, if not the horse to beat. A Group 1 winner in Germany this season, he found the Ledger trip in Ireland a bit too far subsequently but should be more home in this race today. Questions marks arise over his racing style. He’s a hold-up horse and it can be difficult to come from the back the field here, particularly on fast ground. No Lasix is a disadvantage too.

Sheikhzayedroad has won a Grade 1 at this venue last season. From a good draw he can’t be discounted today either, though he hasn’t shown anything this year to believe he is in the same sort of form. He’s no price to be overly excited about either.

What’s the home opposition like? Modest. And that puts everything said about the Europeans into context. Whether they have the right form on European standards does matter little, given that most US rivals in this field aren’t quite up to standard here.

Although two contenders stand out: that is formerly Australia trained Habibi. He made some big progress in recent weeks, landing a Stakes race here at Woodbine in August and following up with a big runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer Turf Stakes. He came from the back off the field that day and with a slightly clearer run my have finished even closer than the final 1/2 lengths margin behind Interpol.

This Interpol is here today too, and in my mind is by far the most intriguing contender, even more so given his rather enormous price tag. He’s a late bloomer but really has hit the ground running in recent months. He caused a huge upset in the Grade 2 Sky Classic over 10f here at Woodbine, but proved this wasn’t a fluke when following up with a gutsy win in the Northern Dancer.

This four year old English Channel colt looks a very genuine, tough sort, who battles hart once in front. He always held the charge of Habibi last month, despite being in front for the whole long Woodbine home stretch. He usually races more up with the pace, which should be an advantage today on fast ground. Question mark is whether he can overcome his wider than ideal draw.

If he can, and the past has proven he has gate speed, he’ll be right up there when it matters. Whether he is good enough against the Europeans remains to be seen. But he’s a huge price and by no means deserves to be four times the price of favourite Cannock Chase.

Interpol @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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