The Curragh

Curragh Opener – Review

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And they’re off! The 2016 Irish flat season is under way and it started with an excellent card and some promising performances on Sunday. Here’s a quick round-up of the day and some photos – Find a complete photo gallery here.

Promising Kick-Off: The first race of the new year was a 5f maiden, won by Mister Trader who made all and quickened nicely. Could be a nice type for the early 2yo races but he may not necessarily turn out to be best of this lot.

Callender in third travelled eye-catchingly well off the pace and had loads to do from his position, he wasn’t knocked over but finished with plenty of promise given first and second were the pace setters. He’s extremely well bred and could develop into a nice sprinter.

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Cosy Club

A mentioning also for Cosy Club, the first So You Think son we’ve seen at a racetrack in Europe I believe.

Considering that the 5f trip is probably way too short, he travelled well enough actually, though it was obvious that he wasn’t quick enough when the pace quickened over 2f out.Subsequently he didn’t get the best of runs but also appeared to be green. It was a good debut nonetheless and he should improve once he steps up in trip.

New Star fo Bolger? The 6f maiden was won by an interesting Bolger newcomer in Stenographer. He cost $450.000 as a yearling and impressed physically as a big and scopey type. He was badly outpaced in the middle part of the race but stayed on strongly to get up on the line eventually.

He obviously needs further, given the visual evidence here in combination with his pedigree given he’s  son of Distorted Humor and out of a Sadler’s Wells mare. Jim Bolger likes to introduce good ones at this very first meeting, so Stenographer is clearly one for the notebooks.

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Stenographer

Upset the Group 3 Park Express Stakes: Nobody gave a toss about Queen Blossom. She was unfancied in the betting – though in my preview I called her out as a 20/1 value shot for the race – and travelled in rear of the field for most parts of the race.

Favourite Devonshire looked to have things his own way entering the final two furlongs, but then Queen Blossom worked her way through the field and made a fight out of it. The three year old filly eventually piped Devonshire on the line to land the big price. Surprising in a sense, but it has to be said in her two starts as a juvenile last year she already appeared to have some potential. It remains to be seen whether this was a fluke or if she can build on it, whereas runner-up Devonsire continues to find ways to get beaten over one mile.

Irish Guineas for Awtaad: There was some talk about the son of Cape Cross over the winter after he impressed in two starts as a juvenile. Then, a massive drift in the betting before the off of the Madrid Handicap on Sunday was a major worry. Did he not train on?

There was nothing to worry as the top weight made light work of his rivals in what looked a pretty good and deep race beforehand. He was simply too good for this lot, despite possibly still a bit light of fitness, as connections mentioned afterwards.

Awtaad really impressed me with the way he kicked clear against a good bunch of three year old’s and confirmed what I saw in the parade ring before. He looked a nice, athletic and scopey type. According to his trainer the Irish 2000 Guineas is the plan.

Sruthan’s Lincoln Romp: I didn’t fancy him, feeling a mile in soft ground with a big weight on his shoulders in a deep field may just stretch him, but I couldn’t have been more wrong. Sruthan in hands of Chris Hayes, slaughtered his rivals in the Irish Lincoln. Two furlongs out and you could count your chickens if you backed him, Hayes sat motionless in the saddle.

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Sruthan romps home

Once the button was pressed, Sruthan stepped up a gear and romped home by 4 and half lengths to win the feature of day one. 11/4 favourite Ashraf finished down the field but was found to be wrong afterwards. It’s best to ignore this performance and to give him the benefit of the doubt. He could still develop into a a very good horse.

Intriguing 1m Maiden: The final race on the card shaped as quite a good race on paper and turned out to be exactly that. The winner Embiran looked extremely promising on his sole start in 2015, when he was unlucky not to beat a subsequent listed winner. He didn’t encounter any problems this time. He travelled like a dream until Smullen said “Go” – in a matter of strides the son of Sharmadal put the race to bed.

He’s nicely bred out of Group 3 winning mare Emiyna, and Dermot Weld said it shouldn’t be a problem to drop back to 7f for a bid of black-type in the Tetrarch Stakes in May.

The runner-up Stellar Mass makes a habit of bumping into the “one too good”. He was a one lengths beaten 4th in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes last season but still remains a maiden. He travelled very strongly here but was simply beaten by a better horse on the day. That says the son of Sea The Stars appears to have strengthen up over the winter and is not a lost cause.

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Claudio Monteverdi

Eye-catcher of the day was Claudio Monteverdi. Aiden O’Brien’s inmate was well backed but met considerable in-running trouble at a crucial stage. Once in the clear he thundered home to finish an excellent fourth.

He finished similarly promising on his sole run last year and is one of the most exciting prospects for the new season. A full-brother to super filly Lush Lashes, he’s a a candidate for the Derby, no doubt. You can find far worse 40/1 ante-post shots.

I expect him to come on an awful lot for this pipe opener and look massively forward to seeing him next time because the more I watch the replay from Sunday, the better it gets.

Cook Islands a potential star: Another one for O’Brien I really look forward to see racing is Cook Islands. I loved what I saw from him in his two starts last year and he did impress me when working at the Curragh on Sunday. He looks to have strengthen up over the winter, is very athletic, though a bit a tricky character all the same.

Whether or not is was significant, but Pat Smullen was on board for the workout and you’d may want to think for a reason; and if it’s only for a feedback from one of the best in the business. Cook Islands may turn out to more like a French Derby type, one who could really excel over 10 furlongs.

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Cook Island

All photos credit Florian Christoph

The Curragh

The Flat is Back!

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Good morning world – the flat is back! Racing never sleeps but Cheltenham was yesterday, the Curragh is today. I’m genuinely excited, going into my fourth year as a Curragh member, a racetrack that is so fucked up that it’s actually great. It’s called charm, I guess. I mean, once the whole thing is revamped, will it still have the same old shabby character which I love so much? Maybe I’m the only one who’s going to miss those power cables waving frighteningly close over racegoers heads in the ever present wind.

Anyway, there’s at least one more year to enjoy it all in it’s full glory. And knowing the Irish by now, after living five years+ in the land of rain, I understand that timetable- and plans are generally nice things to have but nothing to obbey to. Sure, we do that bit different in Germany, but hey, if you don’t like it, you can right feck off! I’m not complaining – I like it exactly that way!

But what I try to say: while there is seemingly a timeline in place to complete the “new Curragh”, the likelihood of it starting on time, never mind the actual completion, is probably slim.

Whatever, that wasn’t the point I wanted to make. Point is: I’m excited. The flat is back! My love – I do like the jumps too – but I like fast horses just a bit more.

The Curragh opener looks pretty decent. Three fair maiden races – some nice types where unveiled here over the last couple of years – quite intriguing handicaps, particularly the 1m one for three year olds with a market leader who’s got an entry for the Derby. The Irish Lincoln is as massive a field as you can get and quite a deep race too. The first pattern race of the new season brings some unexposed and more experienced fillies together. And that all on soft ground – how could it  be any different?! So let’s have a look:

2.10 – 5f Maiden: Jim Bolger won this one on a number of occasions in the past, most notably with Dawn Approach. But the year before his Whip Rule was successful, and that is noteworthy because Intensely Focussed hails from the same family and is therefore not surprisingly the favourite here.

Other individuals to keep an eye on are Terrific Feeling for trainer Michael O’Callaghan, who won this last year. This son of Sir Prancealot has a bit of speed on his side, so could go well. Kieren Fallon is on board. He’s the retained rider of the O’Callaghan yard this season. Prendergast’s Tawaleef and Weld’s Tilly Trotter can go close.

2.40 – 6f Maiden: I’m most intrigued by Jim Bolger trained Stenographer who cost a staggering $450.000 as a yearling. Could be the right type for this race. Though it’s interesting that Richard Fahey brings over the 90 rated Paddy Power, who’s got some fine maiden form from to his name. Also an intriguing contender is The Moore Factor who finished runner-up at Galway with plenty of promise on his sole start.

3.15 – 6f Handicap: Open enough race where favourite Laganore has excellent form in the book yet appears short enough in the betting given he drops markedly in trip and is going to race on really soft ground for the first time.Richard Fahey’s Patrick is an intriguing runner if he acts on the ground.

For a huge price I like to call out Deeds Not Words. Bottom of the weighs, races off a nice low mark, but should enjoy the return to 6 furlongs and has won on soft ground before. Far from disgraced in his last starts at Dundalk. 20/1 is huge.

3.50 – 1m Park Express Stakes: Fair to say Devonshire is the one to beat. She sets a high standard given her 3rd place in last years 1000 Guineas. Her win record isn’t all that positive though. In fact she never won over a mile, though the going is to her advantage.

Joailliere hasn’t been seen since she bombed out in the Irish 1000 Guineas. However she looked very talented when winning a Gowran Park maiden on her debut and she might be the type that gets better with age.

Such a late bloomer could be Aiden O’Brien’s Fluff as well. She’s had only one career start, as she produced a stunning turn of foot at Navan last year. She can be anything but is certainly an exciting. prospect. At 6/1 I like her a lot.

From the bigger prices I feel you can’t fully rule out Queen Blossom. Lightly raced, she looked a scopey sort last year, who appreciates cut in the ground. She surely showed some promise in her two starts.20/1 is too big.

4.25 – 7f Handicap: An intriguing contest with exciting Awtaad leading the betting. The son of Cape Cross looked excellent when winning a 7f maiden last season and subsequently was talked up as a potential Derby horse. In fact he has an entry for the big one in June, so it’s slightly surprising to see him starting his campaign in a handicap.

Albeit it’s a deep one which provides a really tough test. Top weight Awtaad won’t have it all his own way here. Johnny Murtagh’s Newsman is a nice Makfi colt, whereas Ger Lyons’s Roderic O’connor gelding Mint Chai is anotherone worth mentioning.

The biggest challenge could come from a filly though. It took Verbosity a while but the penny finally dropped at Cork in October on her handicap debut. In soft conditions she was able to produce a stunning change of gear and her revised mark is probably on the lenient side. She looks like a filly that’ll do better with age anyway. At 9/1 she’s the one I put up against the classy favourite.

4.55 – 1m Irish Lincoln: A hot renewal where Dermot Weld’s Ashraf looks the class act. The four year old is still unexposed but looked a Group winner in the making last season. Although a mark of 97 is quite a tough task to overcome.

There are plenty of alternatives. Cailin Mor was an impressive winner when last seen in Cork and an 6lb raise might be lenient. Then there is last years Lincoln winner Onenightidreamed. Still lightly raced, he won both his starts in 2015, including the Lincoln and followed up with a Group 3 success. He loves the soft ground but has a huge mark to overcome. Nonetheless at 11/1 he’s a tick overpriced in my book.

Two big prices I also like are Vivat Rex and Lady Giselle. The latter one is 4lb out of the weights but is a real soft ground horse who has a pretty good record over 1m too. Vivat Rex in contrast isn’t quite sure to appreciate the going but is generally unexposed on turf and drops to a fair mark after a pipe opener at Dundalk for new connections earlier this month. Both are 40/1 shots.

5.25 – 1m Maiden: Could we see some future stars in this field? Favourite Embiran could be one. He finished extremely eye-catchingly on his debut and sole start in 2015. Aiden O’Brien’s Bravery is not one to underestimate. He ran on well in a 7f maiden when runner-up behind Awtaad. He looked green but clearly talented that day.

Stable mate Claudio Monteverdi was absolutely clueless on his debut last year but shaped very well in the finish and might be an even better prospect than Bravery I feel. Stellar Mass sets a good standard as he was only a lengths beaten 4th in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes last season.

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

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That’s it, all over, the Cheltenham Festival 2016 done and dusted. Time’s flying! The build-up, twelve month long, the Festival fever, and then, blink with an eye and you miss the whole thing. This is my personal review of the week, calling out the moments that caught my attention; positive and negative, beyond all the the self-adulation of an industry that can be prone to turn a blind eye on some things.

Sprinter brings the house Down

All that was good about the week is unified in the this one horse, Sprinter Sacre. It can’t be any different. The old warrior made dreams come true. Dreams many have dreamt but few dared to believe could become reality. And yet here he was, the ex Champion Chaser, jumping the third from home, niggling along but suddenly finding another gear, under  pressure called on for a big effort, jockey De Boinville not shy to ask for everything.

The comeback of comebacks. It’s what makes racing so beautiful. The only sport that can deliver a drama as rich as this, where the red hot favourite find himself overturned by a horse that only twelve month ago looked finished. But Sprinter Sacre is no ordinary horse. He’s an individual full of heart and class. To see him jumping the last ,clear and striding on to win his second Champion Chase – it one of those moments that make this place, Cheltenham, so special. It makes or brakes you. It makes you a legend.

Yes, we could discuss whether this Champion Chase was a vintage renewal, whether it was a below par race, whether the favourite was caught up in  a battle for the lead and therefore racing way too early, whether the eventual winners performance was the performance of a true Champion or not. But no, let’s not do that. Let’s enjoy it for what is was: a moment of magic, a moment where dreams came true,  a moment that made usbelieve in the beauty of the sport.

Victoria silences the Doubters

Personally I never doubted Victoria Pendelton’s ability to ride in the Foxhunter Chase. What I saw from her in advance was clearly good enough to ride in the race. Her credentials weren’t any worse or better than the ones of most of other amateur riders in the field.

In the race itself, she did a good enough job. You can’t ask much more from someone who’s only riding for a year. She looked good for most parts of the race, she showed balls going on the inner, saving ground and waiting for a gap to open. Other than that is was not an outstanding ride or anything close to it in my opinion. She started riding when it was way too late. Any other day and she may have been even called in by the stewards to explain herself under the non-trier rule.

But then, she is an amateur, never rode at Cheltenham before. She reflected afterwards and what she learned and could have done better. This ability to analyzise and reflect is what you expect from a professional athlete as she is. I really liked the way she conducted herself. Open, honest and  transparent.

As such it was good to have her there, it brought unparalleled PR to the sport. It was a feel good story, which was much needed after the death of seven horses during the week.

But I also would have preferred the media to be a bit less VP obsessed in the immediate aftermath of the race. It was attention which the actual winner, On The Fringe, given a peach of a ride by arguably  the best amateur rider around, Nina Carberry, deserved.

On the other hand it is understandable why Pendelton got the full winners treatment. Channel 4 interview, ovations entering the parade ring, all of that. She deserves it. But so does any other amateur riding in the race. It an achievement for all of them to make it there, to ride, to get over the line. We shouldn’t forget that.

Bryan Cooper flipped the right Coin

It must have been some sleepless nights for Bryan Cooper leading up to the Festival. He had to make a difficult decision. Who to ride in the Gold Cup? Stick with Don Cossack – the highest rated chaser in trainer? Who may not be totally suited by Cheltenham, and with whom Cooper – in the opinion of some – didn’t seem to get on well with? Instead should he switch to Don Poli, the up-and-coming star chaser? Twice a winner at the Festival, the horse Cooper won the Lexus Chase with earlier the season?

Cooper stuck to the form book. Decided to ride Don Cossack. It turned out to be the right decision. Young Cooper gave his mount a brilliant ride, patient, waiting for the right moment to press the button. Maybe advantaged by the fact that Cue Card fell, nonetheless Don Cossack looked so classy on Friday, stayed up the hill in the manner of  a true champ – he put the doubters to bed.

So did Bryan Cooper. Not getting on well with Don Cossack? Well, both just won the pinnacle of jump racing! And Don Poli? Cynics where quick to make fun of “Slow Poli” in the aftermath, but seem to forget that he remains a young and promising chaser, who finished 3rd in the Gold Cup, nonetheless. He got rolling when it was too late, that’s for sure, though.

That might have been down to an ultra patient ride by Davy Russell. From my armchair position I’d say with a slightly more aggressive ride Don Poli would have finished closer. However no other ride would have made any difference about the winner of the race. Don Cossack is the best chaser in training.

Mike Cattermole ruins the Gold Cup

I felt Racing UK did an okay job throughout the week. The build-up to the racing every day in the morning was excellent. The coverage in the afternoon was decent, without being really good. Opinions are always divided, but personally I feel RUK’s coverage of the 2015 Royal Ascot meeting was far superior. Somehow the spark was missing this time.

There was more than only the spark missing from Mike Cattermole commentary of the Gold Cup – the feature of the entire week! It was dismal, unworthy of such a big race. Sure, it’s always down to individual taste, but in this case I would have preferred no commentary rather than listening to an uninterested, unemotional, dreary sounding Cattermole who seemed to lose interest completely in the closing stages.

The Gold Cup deserves a commentary that brings the emotions and excitement across, that stands  up to the phenomenal performance of the winner. This after all is the race everyone wants to see. I would have much preferred Mark Johnson, who’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but he’s one who always puts his all into calling a race.

Death is Jumping

Seven horses died this week: Long Dog, Pont Alexandre, Montdragon, No More Heroes, Niceonefrankie, The Govaness and Rezorbi. It’s the ugly part of our sport. In racing people don’t want to talk about it. Usually this topic is brushed away. “It is what it is.”

I’ve been contacted by friends this week, asking about what’s going on there with all the dead horses. The topic debated on national radio, it’s the one thing non-racing folks hear about, it’s what sticks in their mind; not Sprinter’s heroics.

“It’s cruel, how can you support this bullshit?” – It’s a relevant question. And I make the points – happily defending the sport I love – those horses didn’t suffer, they receive the best care in the world, live a happy & healthy life in a way the majority of the human population doesn’t do. It’s not necessarily racing that kills horses.Even leisure horses break their legs when taking  a wrong step on the field. It’s just happens, is what it is. And that is all true.

But even I have to admit – on Friday, two dead horse again – it sometimes gets difficult defending this, no? We bring these beautiful creatures into the world, care for them deeply, bond with them, just to see them getting destroyed jumping hurdles?

It’s a strange thing. I guess it’s one of the things why I prefer flat racing. Although I’m probably just a hypocrite in saying that. Death is less visible in flat racing. But who knows how young horses die before they ever make it to the racetrack? Well, it’s the ugly truth of our sport and Cheltenham gave it a face this week. It’s something I as a fan have to accept.

An over-hyped Festival

So this gets controversial now, and it goes against the general happiness that surrounds the Festival, which again was of course the greatest, the best ever, nothing like it…. everyone seems so freakin’ happy! Praise for yet another sublime festival on every corner, every tweet, blog, commentary. It’s Cheltenham after all!

I didn’t feel it this year. Maybe it’s just me, maybe it was always like that and I just never saw it, however I felt this year the whole thing was so dramatically over-hyped, hyped up so long before an actual race was even run. All this big talk, it drove up the excitement, the “bring it on I can’t wait for it” feeling from pretty much five, six months before the legendary roar of the crowd.

It all got me so early in a state of eager anticipation; I purchased several guides, listened to tons of podcasts, trainer interviews, visited preview nights – all leading up to the big week of course, which should be the culminating point of all the excitement.

It was the complete opposite. By Tuesday the 15th of March there was this empty, burned out feeling: All those details, tons of information, all the emotions created well in advance, already lived through the last number of months.There was nothing left.

There is nobody but myself to blame, of course. Nobody forces you to take part in this. Though this time it seemed more difficult than ever to not get soaked in by the wheels of the Cheltenham machinery. As a racing fan it’s hard to avoid it, isn’t it? As a racing fan I crave for all the details, all the thoughts of “is this a Cheltenham horse?” questions.

Obviously this in itself is nothing new. It been always hat way. But no, not THAT way. It was a different intensity this season, different in a sense of how Cheltenham was at the forefront of anyone’s mind, so much, so early. Everything’s about Cheltenham. A well oiled machinery, in top gear right from the start. Anything beside? Ornamental Art. Hennessy, King George….? Preliminaries. Nobody cares.

Admittedly, that might be slightly exaggerated and I’m not sure if I’m actually able to articulate properly what I really mean. But in short: the Cheltenham hype starts as early as the horses pass the line of Grand Annual. There is no break. It’s constant. Anyone’s caught up in the hype from the earliest moment. It’s like being on drugs constantly. The Festival drug!

To add one more thought: I generally like the idea of  having a season that goes out with a big bang, like you have it in jumps racing with the Cheltenham Festival. But I also like it the way the flat keeps the momentum over a full season with highlights here and then. And this diversity between the two codes is what I generally love about the sport.

And don’t get me wrong, I do love Cheltenham. I’ve been there myself in the past. It’s just this year, I – and I can only speak for myself – got caught up in the hype way to early, which meant when the actual event came around, it felt like all the races had been ran thousand times before.

Now, onwards and upwards I guess. Tomorrow the new Irish flat season starts. Up until now I haven’t really thought about it. But you know what? I’m mightily excited driving up to the Curragh tomorrow afternoon. #Theflatisback

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham: Thistlecrack & Vautour run the Show!

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World Hurdle day, and boy did we see an impressive winner in Thistlecrack! The hype was real – this horse is THAT good. Sure, it wasn’t a vintage renewal of the race, but honestly, is there ever one? Three milers aren’t the most exciting horses in the world, but this lad clearly is one with a bright future. Gold Cup 2017 I hear ya calling?!

I was worried when Vautour was on the drift earlier today. You could back him at staggering 11/10 for the Ryanair. A fools price, one would think, but only if the horse is fit and fine, which we couldn’t be sure of after connections performed a dramatic u-turn.

In the end nobody, including myself, who was big time on Vautour, had to worry. The ultra talented chaser jumped well mostly throughout the race and put the race to bed turning for home as quickly as Ruby gave him a bit of reign.

Relief…. it’s been by far my biggest bet in the last 24 month – Vautour evens with the NRNB insurance of course. So while Cheltenham in general is more like a betting disaster, it doesn’t really matter in the end if this lad goes in. Thankfully he did.

Friday’s Menu: 

It’s all about the Gold Cup and my stance on the race is clear: I’m on the Don Poli bandwagon and can’t wait to see him flying up the hill past anyone, putting all the doubters to shame, who are nicknaming him “Slow Poli”. I’m delighted about the fact that Davy Russell is riding. Nobody’s better equipped to steer home a lazy but classy horse as Don Poli is.

The other ante-post bet  is Velvert Maker @ 16/1 in the Grand Annual. This horse will run a huge race, I’ve no doubts. If all goes to plan this lad should have way too much on his plate for lot he’s facing in this handicap.

County Handicap Hurdle: I really like Starchitect who has the right profile to land this.But he’s short enough in the market and I also like two much bigger prices. Devilment at 40/1 looks overpriced for a horse that goes well around Cheltenham and who’s ran two nice races this year but most importantly will love the fast ground.

It’s a bit more difficult to make a case for Ivan Grozny who can’t be trusted at all. But he shaped not all that badly in his two races this year after a long absence. He’s was a decent flat horse and showed plenty of promise over hurdles before getting injured. If he comes right fitness wise now he’s got a chance to go close. Again ground can be key. I’m pretty sure he’s a different animal on better ground.

Foxhunter Chase: You can be sure On The Fringe is primed and therefore I wouldn’t read too much into the fact that he tired badly when last seen at Leopardstown. More concerning is his age, he’s not getting any younger, and there is at least a small doubt whether he’ll come back from the tough campaign he had last season.

There were plenty of good words about the Jim Culloty horse It Came To Pass in the build-up of the festival. And it’s easy to see why. Lightly raced, unexposed, progressive. Successful in point to point company, he won a maiden hunter chase on his first under rules. He went on to finish an encouraging second at Leopardstown in February, when he had too much to do.

This six year old is likely to have more left in the locker. That says the Foxhunter is a tough test for such a young and inexperienced horse. There’s also a question mark whether he can handle good ground. All in all It Came To Pass remains a very playable price at 12/1.

Martin Pipe CJH Hurdle: I don’t understand how Nabucco can be a 33/1 chance. If you draw a line through his last performance, where he was clearly not himself, you have a progressive animal who’s coming fresh into this race of a very fair mark.

There is a question mark over his stamina, particularly around Cheltenham, but the better ground will surely play to his strengths. Nabucco was a classy flat performer, who too kwell to hurdles, winning three on the bounce last year, including a Listed Handicap off only 4lb lower than his current mark.

If he can ran to that sort of form he’s got to be in the mix, if he finds a bit of improvement for what is only his sixth start over timber, with conditions likely to suit, he’s got to be a big runner.

Cheltenham Festival

Sprinter Emotions

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“Unbelievable! That’s un…be…lievable!!!” My words sitting in front of a screen in an open space office located on the outskirts of Dublin; Racing UK stream on, headphones on, sound up to the maximum… apparently emotions got the better of me. Co-workers made clear gestures:”Pssssssssssssssst!!”. The race was over anyway.

It was a funny thought beforehand, a joke told with a bit of a cynical undertone – but here it was: REALITY!  Nicky approaching the parade ring, emotional, close to tears. And there he was, the hero, returning to the winners enclosure, accompanied by the loudest cheers imaginable. A euphoric crowd trying to get a glimpse of the horse they call Sprinter Sacre. You have to see it to believe it. I mean: he REALLY did it. Unbelievable!!!

Look, I’m the first to stand up and say I got it wrong. 12 month ago I sure said “retire him”.  I’m sure I wasn’t the only one, was I?. And surely I can’t have been the only one entirely dismissing Sprinter’s chance in today’s Champion Hurdle. I certainly did. And I got it spectacularly wrong.How wonderful!

Let’s enjoy the day but at the same time let’s not get too carried away. This wasn’t the Sprinter Sacre of the old, glory days which were days of pure brilliance. However today was one closer to it than ever since all the injury problems started to emerge.

What I really want is: take my hat off to Nicky Henderson! What an unbelievable job you’ve done with this horse. Fit and ready to go to war at the moment when it mattered most.

And Sprinter delivered! I loved how he found more and more once under pressure. He’s not a bridle horse. He’s a fighter! Admittedly there was a moment when he was rather too early off the bridle for my taste and I thought “that’s it”. But here came the surprise. He kept going, embraced the fight and won duly. Stuff dreams are made of!

Any Currency – Consistency pays off

Placed twice before, now he got one better – finally! Any Currency, at the grand age of 13, out battled the younger legs of favourite Josies Hill. He was prominent throughout the race, jumped well and clearly knew what was asked of him. Still, turning for home I would have put my money on rival Bless The Wings, who were there coming with a very strong ride.

But experience prevailed. Any Currency, throughout his career, was a model of consistency, excelling particularly in this discipline. Ten starts in cross-county races, five times placed, two times a winner, both victories at Cheltenham, including this one today, the biggest day of his long lasting career. Well done!

Novices’ Upsets

Blacklion caused a bit of a shock in the RSA. He outstayed the strong travelling Shaneshill, who – that’s probably fair to say – is not quite a 3 mile chaser. But neither of the well fancied No More Heroes and More Of That where involved in the finish, although the Gigginstown horse has a good excuse, was found lame afterwards and is lucky to have survived, if Twitter is to be believed. On a personal note I’m happy here, given Blacklion provided me with a first Festival winner (13/1).

Slightly surprising, albeit not quite as shocking, was how how easily Yorkhill disposed red hot favourite Yanworth in the Neptune. Yanworth looked a superstar in the making when winning the Neptune Trial here at this very same venue back in January but was clearly only second best today.

Yorkhill, who won the Tolworth hurdle on his way to Cheltenham, didn’t mind the better ground and looks a super exciting prospect. How good he can be, we have to find out. But he’s been quoted 10/1 for next years Champions Hurdle.

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Thursday: What’s on the tab? *Updated Wed. 11am*

First race, the JLT; I have had a proper look through this race but still feel it’s some kind of lottery race. Ground, trip, form – question marks everywhere, none of the better fancied ones really stands out.

So I like to go with a horse that could be anything: Three Musketeers. Still available at 12/1 which could look big later one. Had excuses for his last bad run but is pretty much unexposed, an excellent jumper, was brilliant before when winning a Grade 2 at Newbury – plenty to like about, though the ground is a bit of an unknown.

But he was far from disgraced on fast ground at the Aintree festival last season, when an excellent third in a Grade 1 hurdle behind Nichols Canyon.

If the JLT is a lottery, what would you call the Pertemps Final then? Madness! It’s funny though that after having a proper look I feel quite strong about the value of some in the field. There’s the dramatically improved Kilfinichen Bay. Maybe too high in the mark now? We’ll see, but sure to act on the ground and stays the trip. 50/1 is a huge price.

The same can be said about Broxbourne. He’s only had eight starts over hurdles and could still improve a bit, particularly in today’s conditions. I like the 28/1 for him. I also feel 18’s for Saddlers Encore  is slightly over the top. He’s got the right profile. Progressive, fair mark, ground, trip all what he wants.

And I also feel 50/1 shot Rolling Maul is massively overpriced if he can find back to his past hurdling form. Back over timber off a competitive mark gives him a chance to run well. I’ll be on all four individuals each-way; a rarity for me, but five places and 1/4 of the odds is too good to leave alone.

The Ryanair Chase and back to the “Vautour Saga”. It’s not the Gold Cup for him as we know now. Anyway, my evens wager looks a “good thing”. Go Vautour go! Nothing else to add. Except: While Road To Riches is probably to slow to beat a fit Vautour, he could make this a true test of stamina and should be at least in the money. If I’d be an each-way backer I lump on the 8/1.

World Hurdle, and here I have an ante-post stake as well. Cole Harden. Though the closer the race, the more I feel Thistlecrack is near impossible to beat. Although my 8/1 looks a steel of a bet with the good ground sure to bring out the best of the reigning champ. Still, the more often I watch the reply of the favourites last race, the better it looks.

The beautifully named Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate is a race I want to be involved in. Because I fancy one of Willies’s! Doesn’t happen often, I have to say, which is more for price reasons than anything else. But Ballycasey in this grade, trip on ground he acts on, makes plenty off appeal from his current mark. He’s not as good as he used to be but still has some decent form in the book. At 20’s he looks a big price.

The Mares Hurdle looks a sure thing for Limini… according to the bookies. The mare has done really well since joining Willie Mullins but her price is over is plain wrong and only as short because she is trained by the Irish Master.

I seriously like Smart Talk at 8/1 as the value. There is a bit of concern about her jumping, she has to improve in that department, has to be slicker and more efficient over her hurdles, but her record is hugely impressive and the way she put away decent opposition the last time at Doncaster, despite almost coming down at the second last demonstrated the enormous engine this mare has.

The Amateurs race is dominated by some familiar names. An equally familiar name makes plenty of appeal with his mount. Grandads House and Sam Waley-Cohen must be a good chance to go close I feel. The horse stays the trip, acts on the ground and ran a blinder in the very same race last year but is getting in this time off a much better mark. At 33/1 it’s a nice each-way shout with 5 places, 1/4 odds.

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham: Wednesday Thoughts

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It’s Wednesday and I finally have worked myself through all the other racing where up until now I din’t really have an opinion on. I keep it short and simple this time though as we all have a life to live and I’ve got to make some clients happy, I guess….

Coral Cup: An impossible race. 26 starters, make a case for more than half of the field and it wouldn’t look silly. But I broke it down to those who are sure to act on the ground and the trip. Even that doesn’t make the task much easier, but eventually I ended up with two horses on my short-list.

French Bred Theinval is only a six year old but has plenty of fine form on good ground. He seems to come alive in spring, so he won two valuable races last season March and April. I’m happy to forgive him his last poor showing in soft conditions. And then 40/1 looks really a big price.

I also like the 28’s for Brother Ted. True, he may prefer a flatter track but give him a chance on only his second Cheltenham start. He’s clearly a good horse, beat Silviniaco Conti at Kempton this season, although an only half-fit Conti. Still a good performance. Finishing less than 3 lengths beaten behind Rock On Ruby wasn’t too shabby either.

Selection: Brother Ted & Theinval

RSA Chase: Those two short priced favourite, More Of That and No More Heroes, are too short in my mind. This races is much more open, particularly Blacklion, Roi Du Frances, Seeyouatmidnight (all 12/1),Shaneshill (20/1) and Vyta Du Roc (10/1) are all horses with the potential for further improvement over this sort of trip.

It’s probably not quite smart to put all five up as selections, but backing any of these is value in my book. The two favourites may well be too good in the end, but it’s clearly not a given. Should be an exciting race to watch!

If you haven’t done yet, have a look at my other Cheltenham articles:
– Tuesday Review & Wednesday Outlook
– Jumping On the Don Poli Bandwagon

Cheltenham Festival

Third Time Lucky Annie!

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Cheltenham is well and truly alive! But beware, blink with an eye and it’s all over! Not quite yet though… thankfully. Now, the opening Tuesday has been a remarkable day. For many different reasons. Some good, some not so good. First of all let me confess: I had a shite day punting wise.

By hopes rested firmly on the back of Identity Thief – boy oh boy, he bombed out! All the hype, I wanted to believe it. Forget it. He looked beaten halfway through the race. Silver Concorde? Never seen closer than last.

On a side-note: William Hill was gracious enough to allow me a €2.38 stake on a longshot in one of the big Handicaps. Not 30 quid, not ten, not five, and no – certainly not €2.40. The risk was too high of me robbing them of their annual profits, it seems!

Anyway, let’s quickly recap what happened; writing this while watching the replay package on Racing UK.

Bin those Mullins Accas

Altior, what can you say. That was f***ing impressive! Got a peach of a ride and the way he flew up the hill… imagine he’d be trained by Willie M! Bookies would beat each other over “who makes the silliest ante-post quote for Cheltenham 2017”.

Says, there actually where some questionable quotes flying around soon after Altior crossed the line….

Min jumped like a 15 year old chaser. Sometimes big and round, sometimes clumsy, but certainly not as sharp as expected. Maybe he didn’t like the track. The hype around him has certainly stalled. But I wouldn’t give up on him. He remains a nice prospect. The prospects for all those wild accumulators including Willie Mullins’ horses are bleak after this, though. Call that off to a bad start….

Douvan, Douvan, oooohhh you lovely Douvan

What a superstar. Watching him jump his fences is a thing of beauty. So athletic, so accurate – it’s beautiful. Simple as that. He’s made all and won comfortably. As expected.

To be fair he didn’t really have a race on his hand once jumping the second last, mainly because Vainteux fell, who was trying to challenge hard, but even more so because the wobbling Vainteux hampered the eye-catchingly strong travelling The Game Changer big time!

The Game Changer looked for a split second like he’d be able to transform his name into reality. Turning for home, approaching the second last, he clearly came with a huge run…. for second.

Annie Jumps the Last

She did it, but I’m sure thousands of punters collectivity held their breath when Annie Power approached the last hurdle clear of the rest. She didn’t fall this time, so she won – and she won well.

She was the class act, received 7lb from her male rivals and as called out in my preview of the race she made full use of her tactical advantage – to run the finishing kick out of her male rivals. How could they let her go off at 5/2?! Sounds all so easy in the aftermath. Of course I didn’t back her. But I’m delighted for the mare. She deserved this.

My Tent or Yours ran a tremendous race finishing second. Almost two years off the track, all those niggling problems , yet travelling so well here. Excellent training performance Nicky! The New One wasn’t good enough though. Can connections except that? They seemed to find it hard conceding defeat in the past, that’s for sure. But let me say this: TNO is a good two miler, however not a brilliant one.

Vroum Vroum all class in crappy Mares’ Hurdle

Class prevailed. Never in danger, never in doubt, Ruby gave Vroum Vroum Mag an ultra confident ride. She had way too much on her plate for the rest of the field. It wasn’t exactly competitive racing, and while that can happen if one horse stand head and shoulders above the rest, the Mares’ Hurdle is a crap race.

VVM is a really nice mare, to make her run a race against inferiour opposition, a race where most are clearly not up to the highest level – it’s an insult to the mare, it undermines her class. She deserves to be tested in a real championship race, where she can show off her true talent. Personally I’d scrap the Mares’ Hurdle right away.

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Wednesday Outlook:

An intriguing Champion Chase is awaiting us tomorrow as well. UDS wins with a clear round of jumping, right? I made that point in my Champion Chase Preview as well as waving the flag for a big run of Sizing Granite. Though I’d really love to see Sprinter Sacre running one more big race. How awesome would that be?!

I also mentioned before I do fancy Very Much So in the bumper. He’s currently on the drift. Probably not a good sign, admittedly. Other than that I haven’t have a strong opinion on any of the other races yet, except for the Cross Country Chase!

 

4:10 Cross Country Chase

I’m a big fan of this race and that makes me probably a loner in the world of horse racing. Most people slate cross-country races, in fact hate them with passion – which is fine – though I love the purity of it, the diversity of the course and fences, the enormous test it provides for horse and rider. It’s a race for the eyes as well, it brings out the beauty of jump racing.

Last years winner Rivage D’Or – one of my brighter moments writing this blog, I tipped him for a huge price last year – is going to post to defend his crown. However there is very little evidence that he’s in any sort of form to go even close. I pass him over this time.

I find it hard to make sense of the field, with a rather short-priced favourite, who ticks plenty of the right boxes, but it simply a very short price for a race where plenty of different scenarios can play out.

We saw it last year, where Quantitativeeasing travelled really well but was bumped out at one of the last jumps towards the end of the race. He may have won the race that day and therefore must be a good thing this time around again. I just don’t feel confident about it, maybe because he had his chances here in the past and didn’t take them. As an 11 year old there is very little chance for more improvement too.

I want to find something unexposed with the potential to take to this type of race and bit of improvement potentially left. So the older horses aren’t doing it for me. But I got stuxk with nine year old Dolatulo.

Not necessarily an unexposed type, but one who’s progressed into a fair stayer last season, who took well to the National fences and who acts on better ground. He’s rated to be in with a fair shout if he acts on the cross-country course. He’s schooled over it in the past, so I guess connections have a good feeling of throwing him into this. So have I. This test could be tailor made for Dolatulo. He’s 28/1 with Paddy Power, which looks a tremendous price.

Selection: Dolatulo

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The Vautour Saga

One last thing: There was a bit of hysteria in the twitter world  when it was made public this morning that Vautour is not heading for the Gold Cup, instead goes for the shorter Ryanair Chase! It’s easy to see where most critics are coming from, nonetheless I feel there is a fair bit of hypocrisy in the outcry too.

Since when do people take words from owners and trainer literally? And whatever, if you punt ante-post you know the rules. It’s that simple. Horses are no machines, can get knocks any given second. If that happens, plans can suddenly  change. Yes it’s true, Richi Rich told the world Vautour would go for Gold or nothing, but at the very same time one didn’t have to look very hard to find rumours stating the opposite. So there was something surely not as 100% clear within the yard as it seemed through the Ricci word.

But was Ricci simply forced to be bullish? All those questions, any given day, the speculations, anyone with an opinion, particularly on the Preview Nights Circus, which is more like an industry these days. All the hype, starting month and month in advance. Why not let the people involved with the horses do their job? Why do we need clear-cut answers weeks in advance? Can’t we not wait until the Festival is finally upon us? I understand, people love an ante-post bet. But hey, if you do so, you know the risks involved.

This is not nesascarily an excuse for what happened. What happened is clearly quite unfortunate. It’s just some thoughts that came to my mind when I read all of it this morning. There are always two sides to the coin and the truth generally lies somewhere in the middle.

That says I would have loved to see Vautour trying the Gold Cup trip. It added to the intrigue of the big race. However for some weeks now I also have a big wager on him in the Ryanair with the NRNB insurance. I’m pretty happy right now cause this was a win-win

If Vautour would runsin the Gold Cup he gets outstayed by Don Poli (yes, that’s the winner of the 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup=. But having him in the market helped to get a bigger price on the Gigginstown horse. The only concern for my Rynair bet now: Vautour’s apparently only 90% and doesn’t show the same sparkle as last year. I’m not so worried about the fitness as more about the spark. Did the King George took too much out of him?

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham Thoughts Part II

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Some more thoughts on a couple of races – anything else will be posted throughout the week. Then I’ll be concentrating mainly on the handicaps on with a new rating system, which may or may not prove profitable. We shall see. Btw. if you can’t get enough of reading other people’s Festival previews, well, then you may wanna check out my Cheltenham Thoughts Part 1 and not to forget the Gold Cup Preview either!

 

Tuesday: Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1)

All about Douvan here of course. It should be a procession of pure class if all goes to plan. And that’s fine with me cause I only need my selection from the w/o Douvan merket to finish runner-up. Easy!

No seriously, I find it slightly odd that Gordon Elliott’s The Game Changer doesn’t get any love at in the betting. It seems his chances are are almost entirely dismissed by the general public, what seems to favour Vainteux and Sizing John to play second and third fiddle behind the almighty Douvan. Which is fair enough. Both are certainly progressive Novice Chasers in their very own right, and sure, their form is a bit more sexy I guess. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they are better prospects than The Game Changer. Right?

The Game Changer hasn’t run since Punchestown in October, when completing a hat-trick of wins. He’s had a wind op since then, which is a bit of a concern. But we also didn’t see him because connections didn’t want to waste him on bottomless ground which prevailed oh so often over the winter here in Ireland this season .

Thankfully the sun is out, the ground is drying at Cheltenham, a fact that will very much suit this lad who loves a sound surface. In fact those conditions may even bring out some further improvement particularly in combination with the wind op, given he already was already a progressive individual before his break.

More to like: The Game Changer’s. It’s accurate. Plain and simple. Also he travelles strongly through his races more and than not and posesses a nice turn of foot if he gets his ground. He’s comfortable travelling off the pace and I can see a scenario where he’s ridden with restraint, having place in mind, where he’s held together for as long as possible, but staying  up the hill to finish 2nd, outstaying those who tried to match Douvan earlier.

In the w/o Douvan market he looks a tasty price at 4/1 and no worse a chance than the other two ahead of him in the market. In fact The Game Changer is battle hardened from races outside Novices company, has got his breathing sorted and is sure to love the ground. A big run is clearly on the card.

Selection: The Game Changer (w/o Douvan)

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Tuesday: National Hunt Chase

I probably missed all the good prices but in this type of races I rather prefer to wait and see what line-up we’ve got field and what’s the ground like. It’s out of the hat now, so is there still any sort of value to find? Yes I do believe so.

Two horses in particular I like: Vicente for Paul Nicholls is probably an obvious one here: acts well at this course, looks a stayer through and trough, has still scope for further improvement and will absolutely love the good ground. He should go well as a fresh horse with conditions sure to suit.

Not much more original is to side with Ballychorus, and admittedly value has almost dried up. But I still like the mare from the bottom off the weights with her sex allowance. She can mix it up with the boys as proven in the past. I loved her Leopardstown run over Christmas bar the fall at the last, so it was good to see her back to best subsequently at Thurles. She acts well on good ground, is likely to get the trip and is still open to a fair bit of improvement on what is only her seventh start over fences.

Both horses have good amateu riders in the saddle who should give their moments a fair chance to run to their best. 16/1 and 12/1 respectively is still good enough for me price-wise too.

Selections: Ballychorus & Vicente

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Wednesday: Champion Bumper (Grade 1)

I’m not telling a secret in saying this is a wide open race… take your pick! I pick one of the Mullins armada, which is probably brave enough as those guys are difficult to distinguish.

Nonetheless, Very Much So intrigues me most. I loved the way he won a bumper at Punchestown two years ago. Green like a ripe lime, he overcame his cluelessness and stayed on very strongly, without seeing too much off the whip at all. He just found another gear, which was mightily impressive.

I like even more that the form came on good ground, so very similar to the conditions most likely on Wednesday at Cheltenham. And there is this little fact that this form has worked out tremendously well with plenty of subsequent winners coming out of that race.

There’s a big negative about his chance though: We haven’t seen him since his debut run… which dates back roughly two years now! He’s reported to be in good nick though and there is every chance he’s going to outrun a 16/1 price tag.

Selection: Very Much So

Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham Thoughts – Part I

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Three more nights to sleep…. clearly I’m in danger of running late with the articles I want to have up before the almighty roar of the crowd signals the start of the Cheltenham Festival. But it’s not my fault! A nasty viral infection made life miserable the last ten days or so. Truth told, I was halfway through the draft of this post before falling ill – so better finish now before it’s really too late!

So here it is, a couple of lose thoughts and bets on a handful of races with some ante-post taken before last week. I reckon some of those prices quote will change soon enough if they haven’t already at the time of posting.

 

Tuesday: Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1)

Visually I loved what I saw from Min so far. He’s such a in impressive individual! But hey, this is Cheltenham, this is a different ball game! Clearly he’s the weakest of the bunch of “Mullins banker” next week and it’s rather easy to pick holes and take him.

Looking for a bigger price, for the potential of x amount improvement as well as proven Festival form: I look no further than Dermot Weld’s Silver Concorde. I was lucky enough to see him close up cruising past the winning post at the Cheltenham Festival this day two years ago in the Champion Bumper. A lasting impression – this lad ticks plenty of the right boxes.

Truth told, there are some of cons too. There always are. He’s yet to get off the mark over hurdles – however remains frighteningly unexposed over timber nonetheless  and I give him the benefit of the doubt as his jumping is not that bad at all. It’s more like in his three starts over hurdles he was beaten by either heavy ground or a trip beyond his stamina.

Silver Concorde goes two miles but not any yard more and he does it only on decent ground. That’s how he won the bumper. With the mild weather settling in, Cheltenham on Tuesday’s likely to be in and around good to soft – here’s hoping it’s going to be slightly better, given it’s dry and all the rain that was there last week should be well absorbed by a track that drains so well.

Look, that’s the risk. Will it be good enough for Silver Concorde? No clue! We’ll find out. But the fact that Dermot Weld has kept faith in him, brings him here again and has spoken very positively in recent weeks, gives me some confidence.

Previous Festival form is so vital in my mind; he stays the two miles, has it proven here, he jumps a hurdle and can only get better in the jumping game anyway – I got 25/1 ante-post (without the NRNB insurance though), but he’s now as short as 16/1. So if you want to follow me on this lad, you might be better off waiting till Tuesday, then fully aware of the ground and bookies maybe offering mad prices.

Selection: Silver Concorde

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Tuesday: Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

Maybe not quite as good a race as it was in the last couple of years, still an intriguing contest. The addition of Annie Power adds some sparkle and I actually think she’s got a great chance. Sure, there is plenty for and against her. Biggest negative is her lack of form over two miles. But she always looked a keen, pacey individual and there’s no doubt that she operates well at Cheltenham, despite the absence of that elusive W missing the respective CD column.

In a vintage Champion Hurdle of the past she might well have been found out for speed, but in this years edition I can easily see a scenario where she uses her stamina to her advantage. She could dominate from the front, setting freakish fractions in the hope of outstaying everyone in the end rather than outpacing them.

Says I’m not too keen on the price because I don’t feel she has such a big edge on the field, nonetheless. Stable mate Nicholas Canyon is probably not quite as his best around Cheltenham, and has some doubts after a tremendously hard race in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Though he’s got to be a key contender if he can bounce back. He won at Leopardstown at Christmas, slogging it out on horrible ground when caught flat footed at the run-in behind exciting Identity Thief.He just found the bit more under pressure in the end, against a less experiences rival.

The Gigginstown runner seems a bit a hyped up horse I thought. So many have been quite vocal about Identity Thief’s chances. Though I have to come to the conclusion: they are right. I loved the efforts of this lad when winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle and when second in the Ryanair Hurde behind Nicolas Canyon at Leopardstown. He’s still learning the game, doing so while competing against the best and is getting better each time.

He jumps well enough, although has still room for improvement in that department, but most importantly has plenty of scope. Still generally lightly raced, we don’t know yet how good he can be. Also he could be better on better ground , which he did get only on his successful seasonal reappearance at Down Royal.

It’s quite surprising that this lad is still offered at 6/1 which looks something like two full points over the top in my mind. Identity Thief clearly has a great shout in this race if he continues to improve.

Selection: Identity Thief

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Wednesday: Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

No real need to talk about who’s going to win this. Un De Sceaux has it all to take if he only gets round clear and safe. He did that last year and I don’t like to bet against a horse where the only hope of him not winning is him being a faller.

Some others can run well here. Stable mate Felix Younger most likely is one to be chasing the money. He’ll appreciate the better ground. That should be very much the same for Gods Own who has excellent festival from from last year when runner-up behind UDS. Though it’s hard to see him turning the form around even running the race thirty times.

Special Tiara should go well but his best chance to land this may have passed. Never underestimate reigning Champion Chaser Dodging Bullets if he can find back to something close of his best.

Whether Sprinters Sacre still has it in his locker or not is hard to say, but I doubt it Right, he’s two from two this season, but let’s not forget that a) the form is hardly Champion Chase form and b) he’s had as hard a race as not all too often before in his career when running it out on the line against Sire De Grugy at Kempton. It’s even more evident that Sire has not the legs any more required to perform at the top level too.

Saying that the “Without the Favourite” market is intriguing. For a moment I felt the urge to back old hero Somersby who looks a tasty price here. But he is probably over the edge by now and will be retired right after the race. More interesting is Colm Murphy new inmate Sizing Granite who has been rather disappointing in two starts this season but remains open to improvement.

He won a big Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Aintree last season, crowning an excellent 2014/15 but couldn’t quite fulfil the promise shown back then this season. But there are fair excuses: he was only beaten by a head on his season reappearance, probably not fully wound up that day, and got completely stuck in the mud at Leopardstown – conditions totally detrimental to his chances.

Sizing Granite is a different horse on decent ground, so it’s easy to assume that we’ll see a different horse at Cheltenham. He has changed yards in the meantime, something that may help galvanise him too. Not to forget he is still a relatively unexposed horse, open for further improvement. You can have 12/1 without the favourite, which looks generous.

Selection: Sizing Granite (w/o UDS)

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Thursday: World Hurdle (Grade 1)

Reading plenty of Festival Guides one could get the feeling it might be a wise move t put the mortgage on World Hurdle favourite Thistlecrack – it’s the “surest thing ever”! And I fully get that. He’s been nothing but impressive since last year. And boy, there was this almighty performance in January when he bolted up in the Cleeve Hurdle. Totally get that.

But wait! Do people realize that the ground was horrific that day? Do people realize that Cheltenham come Thursday will be closer to good than to soft? Bottomless ground often throws up those impressive looking wide margin wins – that sort of form is hardly one to trust! Not that I doubt the class of this lad – not all all. But it’s worth mentioning, isn’t it?! Ah well, it’s only me trying to pick holes into this “sure thing”.

However, honestly, I understand all the hype, and sure thing we find out soon if it’s all justified – but let’s not forget that this is still the hardest test to date for Thistlecrack – shall we run the race first before we crown him?

Saying that because in my mind many people seem to make a big mistake ruling out reigning World Hurdle Champ Cole Harden. A wind op and good ground transformed this horse 100% last season. He looked like the world beater most assume Thistlecrack to be. With the exception: we already know Cole Harden is it! He has proven it!

Point I wanna make: Cole Harden has been beaten in all starts this season, but I’ve no doubt we’ll see a different Cole Harden this time around again. It’s easy to see why. He’s trained only with the defence of the World Hurdle in mind this season. He’ll be primed for the big day.

Drying ground is going to be a big plus for him. Says Thistlecrack is by no means a bad horse on better ground. But surely a much better horse with cut in the ground whereas Cole Harden is a completely different animal on decent ground. So backing the reigning champ at 8/1 makes perfect sense for me under these circumstances.

Selection: Cole Harden

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Friday: Grand Annual Chase (Grade 3)

Big field, open race, through a needle, make your pick….. but I do really like the prospects of Velvet Maker here. He gets this into with a pretty fair handicap mark and showed plenty of promise in his first starts over fences. Still lightly raced, he’s bound to improve for his recent experiences I feel.

Velvet Maker was a fine Novice Hurdler, although found out for class in the Supreme at least years Festival. He got off the mark on his first start over fences at Naas, showing plenty of potential, dispatching a subsequent handicap chase winner easily.

Upped in class significantly, he bumped into the almighty Douvan the last two times, but again there were plenty of positives particularly about his performance in the Leopardstown Arkle. He travelled well for a very long time, was there in touch with Douvan until the last and finished a clear second in front of the third placed Doomesday Book, a decent individual in his own right.

If Velvet Maker runs in the Grand Annual he drops back into Grade 3 and against opposition much closer to his own rating. I wouldn’t read too much into his sole Cheltenham start, he was out of his depth last year. But the likely better ground should certainly suit him here.

In addition to that, owner Barry Connell has called Velvet Maker out as his banker of the meeting. Nothing special, I know,  those sort of remarks have to be taken with a pinch of salt. Nonetheless it adds to the already impressive list of good arguments for Velvert Maker to be a leading candidate to the win the Grand Annual.

I don’t think he’ll be as big a price on the day as he is right now in the ante-post market. I got 16/1, again without insurance, but he currently still available at around 14/1 NRNB, which is a bit on the generous side I’d say.

Selection: Velvert Maker

Cheltenham Festival

On the Don Poli Bandwagon

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It’s been a quiet time for this blog… racing hasn’t really got my blood boiling lately. That’s okay. Everyone needs a break at some point, and mine was in recent weeks, taking a step back from racing. It felt good. There are other things in life as well.

Rejuvenated, fresh and less depressed with the days starting to be longer and brighter (and seemingly a bit less rainy – it’s been some depressing months here in Ireland on that front I can assure you!) – it’s time to head right into it again. I can smell the summer and oh…. I can hear the quick horses thundering down the final furlong at the Curragh! Would you believe it, the start Irish flat season is roughly two weeks away?!

There is this small matter of the Cheltenham Festival before that though… so one step at a time please! I was there, two years ago. It was great (just look at the enormous crowd in the lead photo of this article which I took on opening Tuesday that year). This year it’s me in front of the TV. Still good, Cheltenham is the most spectacular week of horse racing… only rivalled by Royal Ascot in my humble opinion. But let’s not get into an argument here. Let’s be focused on what’s really important: the races, the horses, the betting….

Shout it loud, shout it proud: Don Poli wins the Gold Cup! Okay, that’s not news for most of us…. or is it? Well, there’re some prominent advocates for the seven year old gelding, screaming it from roof for weeks, that’s for sure. I’m simply jumping on the bandwagon.

Why? Let’s start with the trainer. Master Willie. Never won the Gold Cup, but this horse is prepared to change it. Lightly campaigned, Don Poli will arrive fresh, trained to his absolute best on the day. But that’s also the case with the other Mullins inmates in the line-up . What’s a difference: the “Polinator” has vital course form – it’s no secret: Cheltenham is one of those rare tracks – it makes or breaks you.

Don Poli won the last two seasons at the Festival, with the RSA Chase arguably his biggest triumph. The way he poured it on and stormed up the hill after clearing the last that day in March 2015 was nothing but impressive.

Some have knocked the horse for his seemingly laziness and potential lack of pace. Don Poli a slow horse? It may appear to be so visually but I would argue that he usually just does as much as is required, without being fancy – nothing more, nothing less. He gets the job done. That’s it. It not “sexy” but Sea The Stars never won by a wide margin either yet I would argue was by far the best horse we’ve ever seen… though that’s a completely different argument, for another day.

In contrast to what some ‘experts’ say, I do like what I saw from Don Poli this season. Two starts, two wins, nothing overly impressive visually, obviously more’s required to win a Gold Cup. Nonetheless winning the Lexus Chase is still winning an important Grade 1 – regardless of how he did it, in terms of style. It’s a prestigious race and it takes a really good horse to land it.

Sure, Don Poli appeared outpaced rather early on, and you could bring up the argument again that he’s a slow horse, who’ll be out of touch once they swing for home in the Gold Cup if he’d show the same traits there. I argue: he has shown again and again in the past as well as here at Leopardstown that he is well able to move up a gear when it’s really needed. He knows to save the best for those key moments.

Not only that. You have to wonder whether Don Poli was actually at his absolute peak in the Lexus Chase. Knowing Willie Mullins I’d rather believe we’ll see an even better conditioned Don Poli when it matters most: at the Festival.

But one last point on the Lexus Chase, which I feel hasn’t been really made by many: while I wholeheartedly agree that on balance a 1/2 lengths defeat of First Lieutenant is short of Gold Cup winning form, I also would say that the runner-up wasn’t necessarily ridden with winning the race in mind, but rather to finish as close as possible – a bit like Arctic Fire in last years Champion Hurdle.

That sort of tactics enabled First Lieutenants jockey to commit much later to a run, asking his mount to go for all too late to win the race, though to preserve as much energy as possible for a big finish, to pass tired horses in front and finish eventually as close as possible.

That’s in stark contrast to what Don Poli had to do, who as a result was in front of First Lieutenant by a couple of lengths clearing the last while going for all of it. Don Poli went on to win his race and seemed to idle once hitting the front in the last 200 yards, while Davy Russell was able to tap into unused reserves on his mount First Lieutenant to finish extremely strongly, without ever looking likely to win – in my mind at least. No doubt Don Poli was the best horse in the race. The quality jumped out.

Now, that is controversial. I’m sure plenty of people will shake their head in disbelief amid such theory, and sure enough, what do I – the armchair jockey – know about riding winners anyway. That’s fine with me.

It’s just another argument adding on to the already impressive list of “pro-arguments” to Don Poli’s cause of winning the 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Now, that’s Don Poli. What about the opposition? Top class opposition is awaiting. Don Cossack, the highest rated chaser in training – I was mightily impressed with how he finished in the Ryanair Chase last year, after loads of trouble, making a big mistake, being short of room, yet staying up the hill very strongly. Nonetheless it looks that Don Cossack is not at his best at Cheltenham. Although the Gold Cup trip may see a different horse this time around?

The case of Vautour is a difficult one and could take up another thousand words to write about. Is he going to run in the Gold cup eventually? His owner certainly thinks so. Other sources seem adamant that he’s a sure thing for the Ryanair. Regardless of whether he runs or not, I have to oppose him anyway on the boring argument of stamina. Sure enough, you can say he has this super Cheltenham form, is potentially the most talented chaser in training and he got close enough at Kempton to win the King Goerge. I say: It’s two additional furlongs, plus the daunting hill. At this point in time I believe it’s too far for Vautour, even if he will strip fitter on Gold Cup day.

I’m not really sure about Cue Card. He seems to stay, he’s the form horse you could say  and definitely likes it around Cheltenham. I still have my doubts that he really wants it that far. Not only that, I believe Don Poli is simply a more talented horse, who could still improve. I don’t see that with Cue Card.

Although I see that very much in another Willie Mullins runner, Djakadam. Only seven years of age, lightly campaigned this season too and crucially an excellent runner-up in the 2015 Gold Cup. He’s got everything you want to see in a lively contender – however one shadow is casting my mind: his jumping. He fell here at Cheltenham in a Trial in January, and he fell at the Festival in 2014 in the JLT. So that has to be a concern. I find it hard to have him over Don Poli, for that reason.

Let’s not rule out Smad Place, brilliant winner of the Hennessy this season, nor Road To Riches – if he runs – third in Gold Cup last year…. but I can turn and twist it all day long, I always end up with Don Poli as the winner of the 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup!

You can still get 6/1 with some firms for Don Poli, which looks outstanding value in my mind. Sure, the final field isn’t 100% clear at this stage, nonetheless in any field this lad has a better than 15% chance.So lump on, as long as you can!

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