Meydan

Preview: Meydan – Zabeel Mile (Group 1)

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After his latest two impressive wins over seven furlongs, Safety Check is a hot favourite to make it three in a row. He always looked a classy individual and it is good to see him fulfilling his potential. His most recent Group 2 success in the Al Fahidi is the stand out form and for that reason alone he warrants an awful lot of respect. Is he a sure thing in this field, though? I’m not so sure about it. It’s now his third race in rather quick succession, and he has shown his very best over seven furlongs, which could point to him being a specialist for that particular trip. He has to bring all this now to a mile today, and will have to give three pounds away. He has previous form over the distance, but he encounters some classy rivals today.

On of those rivals comes from his own stable. Outstrip returns to turf after a rather disastrous try on the dirt. This should suit much better for obvious reasons. His Breeders Cup Grade 1 success is the form that is the best in this field by a country mile. Since then things didn’t go to plan in his classic season last year. He went straight into the Guineas after his seasonal break and finished tailed off. A very much improved performance saw him finding back to form in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot when he finished third behind Kingman and Night Of Thunder. The small field in the Sussex Stakes and a slowly run race didn’t suit him at all subsequently and it didn’t get better in the Joel Stakes either, which ended his season. After this recent outing on the dirt, it is hard to know what to expect of Outstrip today. He is the highest rated individual in this field, though probably flattered by a mark of 118. I believe he deserved another chance. No excuses today. Ground and trip are sure to suit.

Progressive Dark Emerald was impressive in Handicaps this winter and his latest triumph was very taking indeed. Not impossible that he can improve further, but he’ll have to lift his game to another level today. De Kock has a strong hand in the race with Anaerobio, who, if he could find to last seasons form, would be in with a good chance to go close, though age may be catching up with him and his best came over 7f. Darwin is an interesting runner. Thought to be a potential superstar when brought over from the US to Aiden O’Brien, he couldn’t quite live up to the early promise, but a third in the Sussex Stakes must rate strong form, however he had the run of the race back then and he’ll need to bounce back after a poor effort on the dirt. Johann Strauss is another former O’Brien horse now in De Kock’s care. Hard to know what to expect from him today.

Hugo Palmer’s Short Squeeze deserves a shot in this race today. He is a very fair performer in hot handicaps and Listed level. Perception is that he needs to find a bit to be really competitive here today. That says, on balance, I feel Outstrip is overpriced. One has to trust him to find back to something of his old best. No excuses for him today, though. It one last chance he deserves. All is set for a big run. It’s on Outstrip to show if he is good enough these days. A performance like at Royal Ascot last year, would be good enough to win this I suspect, and with fitness on his side after the last outing, he’s the one I side with here.

5.40 Meydan: Zabeel Mile, 1m 
Outstrip @ 13/2 Coral – 5pts win

United Kingdom

Preview: Lingfield Feature

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This is a really fascinating contest. The betting already reveals that the race is as open as it gets, with almost any of the seven runners in with a very fair chance. Current favourite Trojan Rocket has been nicely improving this winter and won two on the bounce. Can he overcome a new career highest mark? Ballista showed a return to form lately and can race off the same mark as when beaten only on the line the last time. Same applies to Mishaal who improved nicely on the All-Weather and was only beaten in a photo at Lingfield last time out. Quiet Warrior and Golden Amber aren’t out of the equation either. And let’s not make the mistake to rule out classy Chookie Royale, despite a significant drop n trip.

What makes this race particularly compelling from a tactical point of view is the fact that most runners are known to be right up with the pace, if not making all. It’ll be interesting to see how that pans out. On the deep Chelmsford polytrack this could easily end in a test of stamina, rather than end speed.

I feel that this may play into the hands of Chookie Royale who is a top class performer over seven furlongs. He’s the class act in this field, as a result has to give weight away and the drop in trip to 6f doesn’t look ideal at the first glance. But with the pace in mind and the fine form he showed lately, I think he could be ready to run a big race. Trainer Keith Dalgleish isn’t travelling 383 miles with his top performer to have a good night out. At the current odds, I think he is too big in the market and should be much closer towards the head of it.

8.10 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 6 furlongs:
Chookie Royale @ 13/2 Coral – 5pts win

South Africa

Fire Master can overcome big weight

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Didn’t tip many winners in recent days, but The Hangman went in yesterday at Vaal at advised 10/1 odds! He clearly found something back of his former best and was a rather easy winner in the end. Because it worked yesterday, I gonna stick with South Africa today again

The 1.40 on a rather low grade Kenilworth card looks set up for one of the three year olds to take. The older horses are largely exposed and didn’t show anything that instils confidence in them, neithert hat they’d be able to produce anything better than the level they have performed to so far.

Favourite Sail For Gold looks pretty short though, given the fact that he had nine career starts already without looking all that progressive. He won a maiden race over a mile on his penultimate run and performed with credit on handicap debut and he may have still a bit more to offer dropping to 1.400m, but for all of that he is a good deal too short. Around Not Across makes more appeal on his Handicap debut after winning over 1.200m a maiden in fine form. Opening mark looks fair and stepping up in trip may well suit on only his fourth career start. However he is also a pretty short price.

Fire Master looks a pretty big price in comparison. He is also still lightly raced, won a maiden over 1.200m in good style and followed up with a strong performance in a MR77 Handicap stepping up to a mile, when he was less than two lengths beaten in third in the end. He was disappointing subsequently, but something was amiss in the latest and if he can reproduce his penultimate run, he must be in with a big chance as he is dropping in class today and is the highest rated individual here. He could have still plenty of improvement left, dropping to more suitable 1.400m should work in his favour. The downside is that he has 61.5kg to shoulder which is massive obviously.

But he is not giving too much weight away to the other 3yo’s which are all on big weights here due to the fact that is actually only a MR72 and the older horses a group of poor individuals. On balance, he should be a good deal shorter in the betting in my mind.

1.40 Kenilworth – MR72 Handicap:
Fire Master @ 6/1 Sportingbet – 5pts win

USA

Khozan’s a special colt!

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You may remember this: I made recently a case for Dortmund to the win the Kentucky Derby. Nothing has changed in that regard, I still believe Bob Baffert’s colt will be a big runner on Derby day, in fact I do fancy him to be one of the shining stars this season. However, sometimes you come across something that makes you think: “WOW, this is special!”.

It’s likely that I wasn’t the only one who thought this way after the lightly raced Khozan won a Claiming race at Gulfstream Park by a mere 12 lengths last weekend. This low mileage colt is rapidly emerging as one of THE prime Derby contenders for the Kentucky Derby. But Why? Well, there is his outstanding pedigree first of all. He is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Royal Delta, and simply bred to be a champion. Take this: His sire, dam, and damsire were all graded stakes winners, and his damsire was even inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame

Then there is his price tag. He was purchased by Al Shaqab Racing for $1mio at the sales. Right, you may say, money doesn’t make necessarily a good racehorse. Only to point out then, that Khozan looked the real deal when he appeared on the racetrack! He ran extremely well first time out on a very eye-catching debut. But Khozan clearly stepped up to another level over the last weekend. He couldn’t have been more impressive on what was only his second career start then when winning a claimer by a street under a light hands and heels ride. Yes, he didn’t beat much, but as mentioned, this was only his second career start and he got a really nice educational ride, having some difficulties to overcome right after a start and also getting some dirt into his face. This experience will toughen him up and he should have learned plenty. The manner he drew clear in the home straight was nothing less than impressive after all.

So far so good. Okay, here’s a bit of a dilemma, though: History is against him. Horses that haven’t raced as two year olds have failed in their attempt to win the Derby since Apollo managed to do exactly that for the last time – back in 1982. They call it the “Apollo Cause.” But hey, you know what? Sometimes it needs something special to break the duck. Khozan has the talent to do so… if he can qualify for the Derby. Because he hasn’t qualified for the race yet! Obviously he didn’t have any chance to earn points yet.

But, breath easy, he’s due to run in the Florida Derby next. If he wins it, he’s in. The race should suit perfectly as he has won twice at Gulfstream Park now. If he is a legitimate Derby contender, well then he has to perform strongly in this next qualifier anyway. Do I expect him to live up to his rapidly growing reputation? Yes, absolutely. You can still back Khozan at 20/1 with Bet365 & Racebets. I’d recommend to lump on. Back Dortmund and this boy at the big prices which are available now – surly not on Derby day though – and you’ll have two extremely strong runners for your money when it really matters!

South Africa

The Hangman is still a class act

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A quick trip to South Africa today or the feature Handicap on the Vaal card – a very competitive looking MR92 Handicap. Many runners are of interest here, but I can’t let the top weight go unbacked at a pretty huge price. That is because The Hangman is clearly the class act in this field.

One has to remember that the five year old is a former winner of the big Grade 1 Champion Stakes! He hasn’t been in the winners circle since a Grade 2 triumph back in December 2012, though he was a good third behind subsequent Guineas runner-up Forest Indigo (who was that day then only denied by Triple Crown winner Louis The King) last February.

Since then he hasn’t shown too much. However his second start after rest tomorrow should see him in much better light given that he drops a good deal in class right in higher end of Handicaps. Trip should suit perfectly and rated a career lowest now, he must rate a big chance if he can regain something of his former best.

2.15 Vaal – MR 92 Handicap:
The Hangman at 10/1 Sportingbet – 5pts win

United Kingdom

Fresh Boonga Roogeta set to cause an upset

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Dream Child is on a four-timer and looks rock solid to perform strongly once again in the Wolverhampton feature today. Dropping to 9f shouldn’t be a problem as she has won over this trip before. With a good apprentice booked, the rise in the weight is offset to an extend. However one has to wonder how much improvement is still in her. Also she has a huge weight to shoulder today because of the big difference in ratings. She may well be good enough, but she better be at her best.

As always I try to oppose those short favourites and I feel with Boonga Roogeta there is one mare in the race who has the ability to cause an upset. She has won on the All-Weather in the past was mostly seen on turf in the last couple of seasons. She has slipped to a very handy mark now, as she won off similar or higher three races in the past. The last one at Brighton last May off 9lb higher than today. She likes to go from the front, and with her ability to get further she may well be able to dictate matters, set a strong gallop and fend off all her rivals.

She has been off the track for a while, but has performed strongly as a fresh horse in the past, and this record instils confidence that a big run is on the cards with her regular rider in the saddle too. Paddy Power is offering a huge price in this small field and it looks huge value to my eyes, so I’m bullish with the stake.

5.00 Wolverhampton:
Boonga Roogeta @ 8/1 PP – 10pts win

Ireland

Taste of Champagne for James at Naas

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Naas
This big novice handicap looks wide open with plenty of improving individuals in the line-up. Conditions at Naas are going to be tough today, with plenty of rain falling overnight.

Personally I do fancy one runner in particular. I was already pretty sweet on Champagne James’s chance at Leopardstown last month, but it turned out that things happened a bit too fast for him over 2m 1f on rather decent ground. That was his Handicap debut after he was a good second in a Novice chase at Fairyhouse before where he caught my eye initially.

He’s a big strong horse, made for chasing and hasn’t shown his true potential yet. Rated at 126 he could be exploiting this mark today, stepping up back to 2m 4f in soft conditions. This race is hotter than the last one, but as a result he is on a good weight, much in contrast to the big top weight he had to shoulder lto. I’d expect him to go really well today as he looks still overpriced, despite prices already falling.

2.50 Naas: Champagne James @ 13/2 Betfred – 5pts win

United Kingdom

Preview: Ladbrokes Handicap Lingfield

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The progressive Shyron looks a very worthy favourite and is chasing a hat-trick today. He won with a bit in hand the last time. But while he’s renewing rivalry with a couple of runners today, and on this last performance looks likely to be up to his revised mark, it also has to be stated that he got the run of the race and bumped into two rivals, which meet him on better terms this time. He looks the likeliest winner, but is a very short price in this strong handicap.

One would expect that Grey Mirage will perform with credit once more, though he may need some assistance from the handicapper to be able to win in this class again. Related didn’t quite get a clear run in the home straight the last time and may get closer to Shyron with a clear passage. Another one who was interfered in the very same race was Brigliadoro. He still finished well enough in the end and run with credit over a mile the next time in a hot race that threw up a nice winner subsequently. Dropping back to 7f again, he may be able to outrun his price tag today.

Money Team is still trying to win a race on the All-Weather but came very close the last time when he stayed on nicely. He goes 2lb up in the mark and tries 7f for the first time. The way he finishes his races suggests that it’s worth a try, also on pedigree it looks not unlikely that he gets the trip. The apprentice on board is well worth his 3lb claim and that should give Money Term every chance to run big today.

Brigliadoro @ 14/1 Coral – 5pts win
Money Team @ 16/1 Coral – 5pts win

United Kingdom

Preview: Cleves Stakes

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Another tremendously competitive race and even more so over this sprint trip where horses taking each other on on a regular basis, and often enough it only depends on form on the particular day who is going to win. I find it hard to distinguish the more fancied horses here though, and while trying to find out if there is one of the long-shots overpriced, I stumbled across the 20/1 for History Book. I believe if he’d be wearing still the well known blue Godolphin colours today, he might be a shorter price. But he left Charlie Appleby recently and has his first start for a new yard, interestingly with cheek-pieces fitted for the first time too.

History Book is still a rather lightly raced individual, in fact completely unexposed over sprint trips. Bred for something different, he didn’t really take off in his early days, but gradually dropped down in trip until appearing over 6f here at Lingfield last month in a pretty decent class 3 Handicap. He travelled very well and got up on the line with a late push in a thrilling finish. The form of that race worked out well in so far as that the runner-up prevailed subsequently in a very hot race while stepping up in grade.

Going right into Listed class today, this is obviously the toughest test History Book ever faced and it may turn out that he is not good enough. But he must have potential to improve further over this new trip, which seem to suit him well. He is drawn quite well too and may make use of that with more aggressive tactics today, using the bit of stamina he should have to offer. Considering all, he looks a huge price and deserves a chance here.

History Book @ 20/1 Coral – 5pts win

United Kingdom

Preview: Winter Derby Trial Stakes

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Grandeur is a class act, has done well in hot Graded races over in the US last summer and won this very same race last year off a break. No reason why he shouldn’t go well once more today.

Grendisa won back in December a Listed race over course and distance, is a proven All-Weather warrior over variety of trips while giving weight away today however.

Afonso De Sousa makes his first start for a new yard after break. Won as fresh horse before and usually performed well on Dundalk All-Weather in the past.

Ansaab has done really well at Lingfield over CD last two starts, when beaten by a neck and won by a neck in class 3 Handicaps. More required here but deserves his chance.

Cloudscape hasn’t been seen since 1.5l fourth in Group 3 over 12f at Goodwood. Drop in trip should suit if fit on reappearance. Won fresh last year and on debut on Kempton AW.

Maverick Wave has a 100% record over course and distance, won last month good class 2 Handicap. Fom pick in this field with more improvement likely.

What About Carlo is back off a break, won as fresh horse in the past and over 10f. All-Weather debut. Hard to know what to expect today.

Lamar proved himself an AW specialist. Won the last two in conditions races. Has to prove stamina today though.

Verdict: This is an ultra competitive contest and I’m surprised to see such a huge difference in prices. Yes, Grandeur is a fair favourite for obvious reasons. He’s here to defend his crown and no doubt will be the one to beat. But there are a couple of progressive rivals in the line-up that can be dangerous to underestimate. So I’m happily oppose him today.

I believe John Gosden has a very strong hand in this race. Cloudscape is a very interesting contender for obvious reasons. Still rather lightly raced, he shaped with loads of promise last season and has some excellent form to his name. If he is fit and well and has wintered well, he is a big runner. His price doesn’t really offer value in my mind though. Which looks different for Gosden’s second horse, Maverick Wave. An all the time improving colt, he is unbeaten at Lingfield over 10f and may have a tactical advantage if let loose in front. He deserves a shot on this and the weight he receives from the more fancied rivals, he is in with a big chance as on the ratings he hasn’t to find all that much.

Grendisar is a strong travelling horse, who will need a strong pace and all the luck in the world here. he is a classy individual but I feel the race may not be run to suit him. Afonso De Sousa also wouldn’t like it to be a crawl with all his wins on the All-Weather came over 11f. He is an interesting runner nonetheless on his debut for David O’Meara. Improving handicapper Ansaab deserves a shot at this too, but potentially he is not good enough.

I’m intrigued by bottom weight Lamar. He is really progressive on the All-Weather, won two conditions races over shorter last month and finished a strong fourth over 7f in a very competitive listed race at Deauville. I believe he has more to give and looks extremely overpriced. Question mark is the trip. However it’s only his second try over 10f and he didn’t seem to stop over 9.5f at Wolverhampton, also on pedigree there is a fair chance that he can get thus far. He may be tracking the leader, and if this won’t won’t be run at a mad pace, it could play very much in his hands.

Maverick Wave @ 13/2 VC – 5pts win
Lamar @ 20/1 VC – 5pts win

Horse Racing Around The Globe