Palpitation ready to strike on Nursery debut

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Finally a winner last night, Mujasaam hacked up at Salisbury under a strong front-running ride. Could have been even better as Astley Hall ran a massive race but was beaten in a photo unfortunately. To the naked eye there was nothing that could differentiate him from the eventual winner, but I’ve to trust the judges here.

2.40 Carlisle: Nursery, Class 5, 5f

Open little Nursery with a strong favourite but I feel Palpitation is a capable rival. This Fast Company son has been gelded since his last run and that usually works out pretty well for this sire.

He showed a bit of promise in three maiden races, but is expected to do much better now switched into Handicap company. he is quite well bred, though his future should lie over a bit further. An opening mark of 65 is fair and first time cheek-pieces may offer some additional assistance.

Palpitation @ 9/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

Mujassam bound for a big run

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5.10 York: Nursery, Class 3, 5f

Astley Hall looks overpriced here if he could find back to the form he showed on his impressive debut run. That day he looked extremely green throughout, completely messing up the start but still was overcame that all to win well in a decent maiden.

He was disappointing in his two starts subsequently, but now dropped down to 5f again on quick ground should help on his nursery debut. An opening mark off 77 doesn’t look impossible.

He has been gelded since his last run There are positive sire stats for this kind of procedure and Richard Fahey often gets it right if it comes to geldings.

Astley Hall @ 16/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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8.15 Salisbury: Handicap, Class 4, 7f

Roger Varian has only one runner at Salisbury today and that looks significant. His Mujassam is an intriguing contender, dropping in class off a lowered mark with ground likely in his favour. He didn’t show too much in two starts this year but remains with potential.

A gelding now, this may help him to focus a bit better on his racing too. Kyllachy’s often improve as geldings and Varian has a positive track record for first time geldings too. He could go well tonight.

Mujassam @ 13/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

Preview – King George VI

Ascot Grand Stand, by Florian Christoph

Will Golden Horn run? We don’t know yet. The ground is soft, and despite the fact that the sun is out, it won’t help to dry quickly enough. I suspect that the hot favourite won’t take up his chance here. But regardless of whether he is in or not, it should be an intriguing affair as not too many are suited by the conditions.

Well, Clever Cookie surely is. He’ll love every drop of rain in the ground. He is in top form, won two on the bounce and should have things the way he likes it. I think he is potentially overpriced, but also feel he may be tactically disadvantaged with his usual running style – he simply might get going too late. It could be difficult to peg back some others who are attempting more aggressive tactics.

I believe Snow Sky is a major runner here today, with or without Golden Horn. He stays further than 12 furlongs and might be actually better over two additional furlongs, but he proved his class in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot over this trip when he was very impressive to land it from the front.

He may not get the lead this time, but will surely be prominent nonetheless. That will enable him to kick on 3f out, turning for home. He has a bit of a change of gear, so may be able to put some lengths into the rest of the field at this stage. And one thing is assured – he’ll stay.

This Nayef son is a typical Sir Michael improver, he’s blooming this year. The ground of course is a question mark. His best performances came on a quick surface. However he used to win his maiden on bottomless ground with ease, so he is probably fine.

There aren’t too many others who appeal to me. Flintshire is a quality runner, but he’ll hate the ground. Eagle Top isn’t sure to enjoy it either. While Postponed remains one with potential but has never encountered these conditions before. Romsdal has yet to win on turf, though the filly Madame Chiang has course and distance form on soft ground as she was victorious at British Champions Day last year.

She is an intriguing contender. Track, trip and ground will suit. Her seasonal comeback run over shorter 10f in the Middleton Stakes wasn’t all that bad, however she hasn’t been seen since, which is a concern.

And what about Golden Horn – if he runs? Of course he’s the one to beat. His record speaks for itself and he has the vital weight for age allowance on his side. But the ground is a major worry. Yes, he won his maiden on good to soft, but he looked so exceptional on a fast surface – I’m worried.

Verdict: I’m prepared to take on Golden Horn in these conditions ans believe Snow Sky has a major chance. He shouldn’t mind the ground and tactically the race could pan out to perfection for him. He’s a big price.

Snow Sky @ 15/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

Flight Risk can surprise again

Jockey

3.10 Curragh: Minstrel Stakes (Group 3), 7f

Gordon Lord Byron could be hard to beat here. He has been in fine form lateley and finds perfect conditions at the Curragh. British raider Home Of The Brave won’t go down with a fight, though. He has shown some excellent form this year and seven furlongs looks his optimum. It remains to be seen how he acts on the ground.

Sovereign Debt was an impressive winner on Irish Derby Day here at the Curragh. That day everything fell into place for him. The drop to 7f will surely suit, though. Ramone is a tough mare but may need a stiffer test. Dark Emerald was progressive in Meydan, nonetheless a career best is required today.

Jim Bolger’s Flight Risk was a surprise winner of the Gladness Stakes back in April. This form has worked out very well, while the four year old colt has proven his class since then too. Some creditable efforts in Group company subsequently, rounded up with an unlucky runner-up effort in the Celebrations Stakes behind Sovereign Debt last month.

The race wasn’t run at a suitable pace for him, but turning for home he made good progress on the inside and looked to mount a big challenge, but got stuck on the rails with no room to go. Kevin Manning switched wide, which cost ground and momentum, yet Flight Risk flew home late.

Ground and trip will suit today. There should be a good pace ensured, and while it is not easy to give weight away, he is clearly in excellent form and can go close.

Flight Risk @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Local Time deserves another chance

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3.45 Curragh: Kilboy Estate Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2), 1m 1f

Favourite Brooch ran inexplicably flat in the Pretty Polly Stakes, she is better than that, but has to concede an awful lot of weight here once again. That makes her vulnerable. Talmada’s recent runner-up effort behind subsequent Irish Oaks winner Covert Love sets a strong standard, but the slight drop in trip isn’t sure to suit.

Mutatis Mutandis could go close if she doesn’t miss the kick this time, while strong travelling sort Bocca Baciata will be much better suited by this test than when last seen at Royal Ascot. Raydara has to bounce back from a poor seasonal comeback run.

I’m intrigued by Godolphin’s Local Time. She looked smart at Meydan, won the UEA 1000 Guineas and Oaks earlier this year. She hasn’t been able to back these performances up since her return to Europe. But both times she competed in Group 1 class on quick ground, and the slight drop in class as well as an easier surface may help her to find back her best.

Saeed bin Suroor is adamant that she needs a bit of give in the going, that is the reason why they are coming over to Ireland. It has rained over night quite heavily which should clearly benefit Local Time’s cause. 9 furlongs could be an ideal trip too. I feel she deserves another chance and she could well able to outrun her price tag.

Local Time @ 20/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

Preview: Irish Oaks

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5.50 Curragh: Irish Oaks (Group 1), 1m 4f

Ribblesdale Stakes winner Curvy sets a strong the standard in the Irish Oaks. She is progressive, has strong course form and couldn’t have done more to impress at Royal Ascot. But there are plenty of dangers in this field so it certainly won’t be a walk in the park for the 5/2 favourite.

Aiden O’Brien’s cavalry consists of “only” three runners, after Qualify pulled out. Munster Oaks winner Words is the most fancied one of the trio. Only two starts to date, she can improve again and is clearly poised for a big run. Stable mate Together Forever was well beaten in the Epsom Oaks. She was up with a strong pace, got hampered 2f out and tired subsequently. She deserves another chance.

So does Kissed By Angels. An impressive winner of a hot 1m Leopardstown maiden earlier this year, she was last seen at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas. After stumbling out off the gate, she probably made a bit too much early on, yet travelled quite strongly a most parts of the race – though didn’t find anything when it really mattered. Jockey booking is a big negative but the step up in trip should suit.

Jack Naylor wasn’t quite suited be run of the Epsom Oaks. She was a big eye-catcher in the Irish 1000 Guineas though and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her bounce back today. Jessica Harrington’s charge remains clearly with potential.

Three English raiders try their luck: James Fanshawe’s progressive Speedy Boarding faces arguably her toughest test. She is an intriguing contender, nonetheless. The same could be said about John Gosden’s Gretchen. She was thrown into deep water at Royal Ascot. On the back of a good maiden win, she run her heart out in the Ribblesdale Stake. Although caught wide in the home turn, she lost an awful lot of ground subsequently, She’ll have learned plenty on that day.

Hugo Palmers ships over Covert Love. This filly is still unbeaten in three starts this year and she may improve again as she steps up to 12f for the first time today.

Verdict: Intriguing contest. Curvy is a fair favourite but there is plenty of opposition in this race capable of taking her scalp. Together Forever with less aggressive tactics could be the main danger. But price wise I believe stable mate Kissed By Angels is massively overpriced. Still lightly raced, she travelled well in the Guineas and this new trip could see her in much better light.

Over the top is also the price on offer for Gretchen. She was green at Royal Ascot and didn’t have the run of the race. The galloping Curragh will suit down to the grounds and with natural progression she is a huge runner.

Gretchen @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
Kissed By Angels @ 33/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

Preview: Grand Prix De Paris

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After a bleak Sunday at Dundalk’s All-Weather, where non of my selection even went anywhere close enough to give me a run for my money, I have set sights firmly on France today – for a change of scenery. The French of course celebrate Bastille Day… let’s hope I can celebrate a winner instead!

6.25 Longchamp: Grand Prix De Paris (Group 1)

I can see the reason why many are keen on Balios after his impressive success at Royal Ascot. Not sure if the race is run to suit him, though, as he seems to need a quick pace and every inch of 12f trip in the King Edward.

Storm the Stars has been runner-up in Irish Derby and third in the English equivalent. He sets the standard, obviously, however may be found out for speed once again. He looks a stayer, and I can see him only winning a Group 1 over the Leger trip. He also had a tough season up to this point, and it might be a race that comes too soon.

For the French it is once more an Andre Fabre trained colt who is going to provide the key challenge. Ampere is unbeaten in two starts, already a Group 2 winner and clearly an exciting prospect. The better ground is a slight concern, as well as his form is nothing particularly special after all.

Silverware should find this trip stretching his stamina, while progressive Erupt is clearly one to take seriously. But it is Aiden O’Brien’s Archangel Raphael who is the most intriguing contender in this field.

He was one I was keen to see as a three year old. He made a belated comeback but couldn’t have done much more than winning his seasonal reappearance at Fairyhouse earlier this month. The runner-up has subsequently franked the form with a good victory at Dundalk.

Archangel Raphael was a good juvenile. A bit unlucky not to win on debut, when 2nd to a good winner. He was quite green that day as well as on his second career start – though then at Galway, he produced an impressive turn of foot to win in difficult circumstances.

Longchamp as a track should suit him perfectly and in a slowly run race he may be one of few who is happy to make all. Blinkers fitted for the first time doesn’t need to a negative. In fact he could be even sharper in the finish. This talented individual is clearly overpriced in my mind.

Archangel Raphael 12/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

Escapism a massive price on Handicap Debut

Postulation
Postulation

Yesterday afternoon at around 5pm I was pretty depressed…. but then came Dartmouth who got me out of the hole with his dominant success at Ascot. What started like a bleak day, ended in modest 10pts profit. Could have been better if not for hitting the post twice. Lightning Spear in particular was unlucky, as he ran into all sorts of trouble in the home straight.

3.45 Dundalk: Handicap (57-75), 7f

Good racing at Dundalk’s All-Weather today. The 7f handicap looks an intriguing contest. Favourite Ishebayorgrey has been a model of consistency and can race off the same mark as when he won a good 6f race at Leopardstown last month. Though he appears to be vulnerable over this trip; the additional furlong seems to stretch his stemina.

Some lightly raced and potentially well handicapped sorts can make their presence felt. Most interesting is Escapism on her handicap debut, however. The John Oxx charge has done not too badly in maiden races, most notably eleven days ago in a hot sprint. She travelled well but seemed to be out-sprinted in the closing stages.

She steps up to 7f now which should certainly suit on pedigree. Both sire and dam have won over this trip; in fact she is not badly bred at all. An opening mark of 66 is lenient in my eyes, given her most recent performance and the potential improvement to come over this trip. The All-Weather surface won’t be an issue either.

Escapism @ 7/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.15 Dundalk: Marshes Handicap, 5f

Ultra competitive race with plenty of pace – it should be fast and furious. You can’t discount anyone lightly here, but Ger Lyons’ Ardhoomey is particularly well fancied in the betting after a good performance in a hot Curragh Premier Handicap. He did well to finish 4th from the position he came from and gets help from the handicapper who drops him below a mark of 100 now: his wind problems in the past are a concern, though.

My Good Brother showed a return to form when an unlucky fourth at Fairyhouse. He is down to a handy mark and should go close. Lightly raced Urbestchance is interesting here, dropping in trip on her handicap debut. She is open to any amount of progress.

Old boy Russian Soul will have to overcome a wide draw in order to get to the front in a race where competition for the lead is likely to be fierce. The big weight is even more likely to stop him anyway. Prince Connoisseur hasn’t been any good this year so far but slipped down to a dangerous mark if back to his best.

I really do like Kimbay, who appears to be overpriced. She has been very progressive the last two seasons, and it didn’t stop this year as she got close on her seasonal reappearance and then took advantage of a drop to her prefered 5f trip at Tipperary. Forgive her last performance at the Curragh where she wasn’t in a good position.

She has been dropped 3lb for that and is now effectively only 4lb above her last winning mark. She could be still well in, particularly today where she is returning to Dundalk’s All-Weather. She is unbeaten in three starts over course and distance and should be a major player of her low weight here.

Kimbay @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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4.50 Dundalk: Conditions Race, 1m 1f

Only three runners, and with Xebec exposed as a mid-80 rated handicapper, this should be a match between Outspoken and Don Camillo.

Outspoken was a fair runner-up behind stable mate Archangel Raphael. He is very lightly raced and open to further improvement, the switch to the All-Weather may not be an inconvenience. Says the slight drop in trip is not sure to suit given how one-paced he looked as well as easily outpaced one the tempo of the race increased turning for home. He’s clearly no superstar.

Dermot Weld’s Don Camillo was utterly disappointing last week in a listed event at Roscommon. However the race itself was a strange one, so was the ground. He was eased in the closing stages and may be better judged on what he did before. He wasn’t disgraced in Group company at Royal Ascot, and I liked what he did on the Dundalk All-Weather before.

He won here a maiden in great fashion and travelled all over older & more experienced rivals in a Handicap off a mid-90 mark the next time. He was outstayed eventually but should have learned plenty.

He was thought to be good enough to warrant an entry for the US Triple Crown series earlier this year, though he didn’t take it up eventually. Nonetheless quite well bred, by a Breeders Cup Classic winner, Don Camillo is likely to relish this trip and the surface. With a visor fitted for the first time, he can be sharper in the closing stages now.

Don Camillo @ 11/4 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

Preview – Lightning Spear has the class!

Newmarket July Course

It has been rather quite this week for me personally…. there was brilliant racing on offer the last number of days at Newmarket, but I couldn’t been arsed. Life is busy, and some days off the horses can do the world of good sometimes. I feel fresh and rejuvenated in that sense at least. Let’s give it a proper go today – there is top class sport on offer!

2.45 Ascot: Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2), 1m

I’m prepared to take on favourite Arod. He’s clearly top class but the slight drop in trip is not sure to suite on lightning fast ground. He is a fair price, but nothing more.

In the same ownership, progressive Lightning Spear made giant strides this season. He followed up on an impressive display at Lingfield with an even more impressive performance at Salisbury last month. Bumped at the start, stuck in traffic until late, he stormed clear under 9st 10lb when finally in the clear. He’s a major player today.

The joker, if you wanna say so, is Bow Creek. Excellent last season, he was clearly not himself on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown earlier this year. If he can find back to his best he’s dangerous.

Lightning Spear @ 7/2 VC – 5pts Win

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2.35 Newmarket: Superlative Stakes (Group 2), 7f

Hard to look past Aiden O’Brien’s extremely well bred Air Vice Marshal. He was pretty green on his debut but came on a truckload the next time. Admittedly, the maiden he won at Gowran Park isn’t worth an awful lot but the way he did it was ultra impressive. He could have won by any distance. He is good looking, big and scopey and has the pedigree to do well as a juvenile

Main danger is William Haggas’s War Department. Forget his Ascot run, it just wasn’t to happen for him that day. He looked good on his debut though and should be competitive today. But on the prices, I feel the Irish raider is  overpriced and should be a full point shorter in my book

Air Vice Marshal @ 3/1 Coral – 10pts Win

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3.45 Newmarket: July Cup (Group 1), 6f

Two big prices against the two hot favourites: Due Diligence is one. I’m inclined to give him one last chance. At this time last year he had the world at his mercy, yet things didn’t go right from there on. Two disappointing efforts this year, a particularly dismal one at Royal Ascot – it might be that he has never recovered from his injury – but Aiden O’Brien wouldn’t bring him over if he wouldn’t think Due Diligence is in with a chance.

The other one I like is Danzeno. Rather lightly raced, he may still be able to pull out a bit more. He was unlucky at Newcastle last month following his excellent seasonal reappearance in the Temple Stakes. Trip, track and ground are sure to suit perfectly.

Danzeno @ 20/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win
Due Diligence @ 25/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.55 Newmarket: Class 2 Nursery, 7f

Favourite Majdool was very impressive at Chelmsford over this trip, albeit it was a poor maiden. He was fair runner-up behind Beaverbrook before, however, so is clearly the one to beat today on that evidence. Spongy shares collateral form with him and has a chance on the weights today, but probably needs a bit further given the way he stayed on to win lto.

Mark Johnston has his juveniles in top form this season. Aleko is no exception. Off the mark in a 6f maiden in excellent style, he failed to follow up at Epsom, though. Might be wise to ignore that run as he missed the break and was never comfortable at the track throughout. The step up to 7f is sure to suit on pedigree, and this well bred individual should do better now in nurseries.

Aleko @ 4/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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5.05 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

Space Age performance at Royal Ascot was freakish to a point, given his wide draw and the frenetic pace he set – yet it seemed it suited him to be in front alone. H deserves to be hot favourite today. He is up by 8lb but could be well able to defy this new mark.

But it’s Dartmouth who appears to be quite well handicapped, given he wasn’t disgraced in the very same race and can race off the same mark. He had a wide draw to overcome and had to travel three wide. throughout. Given the circumstances he ran a fine race. He is well bred, still lightly raced, and can do better today.

Dartmouth @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

Merry Me Can Upset in Pipalong Stakes

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3.10 Pontefract: Pipalong Stakes (Fillies’ Listed), 1m

Favourite Temptress should be hard to beat given her brilliant run at Royal Ascot when she followed up on an ultra impressive performance on her seasonal debut. However her draw and running style are a slight negative at this track, so she might be vulnerable to someone who gets first run.

I feel this could be Merry Me. The filly seems on the upward with age. She left a poor season opener behind with a massive run in a Handicap at Epsom. She travelled strongly chasing the pace, didn’t seem to be impacted by a bit of a rough ride in the home straight and went clear inside the final furlong, just to get a bit tired or idle in the dying strides when eventual winner Gratzie came out of nowhere to get up on the line.

Merry Me didn’t have time to respond to this challenge and gave a good deal of weight away to the winner as well. The slight drop to 1m should suit perfectly today though as well as track and ground.

Merry Me @ 6/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Horse Racing Around The Globe