Category Archives: United Kingdom

United Kingdom

Saturday’s Flat Tipps

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Newmarket Rowley Mile

3.10 Newmarket: Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1), 7f

Two super exciting colts go to post to fight it out here: Aiden O’Brien’s Air Force Blue and Godolphin’s Emotionless. Both created big impressions this season, both look special.

However I feel Air Force Blue should be a clear favourite here, given he already is a two times Group 1 winner – in fact he landed the two most important races for two year olds in Ireland, the Phoenix Stakes and National Stakes – and he seems to get better with each run.

The son of War Front has no issues with the ground today, after winning on yielding ground before. And he looked even more home over the 7f trip in the National Stakes than the sprints.

Air Force Blue @ 6/5 Racebets – 10pts Win

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5.35 Newmarket: Darley Stakes (Group 3), 9f

Mutakayyef is a very fair favourite to land this race but his odds offer no value so I go with lightly raced Ooty Hill who could easily be good enough to win at this level. He looked smart when getting off the mark last year at this venue but has had only two starts since.

A very promising runner-up effort behind subsequent Group 1 scorer Starof Seville was followed by a setback and a half year long lay-off. When he repapered at Newbury last month in an Arc Trial trainer Roger Charlton warned that Ooty Hill will most likely need the run.

The three year old colt dropped out tamely over 3f out which is a worry but he didn’t get a hard time either and one would hope the race has brought him along nicely for today.

Whether that is the case remains to be seen. Some horses never recover from their injuries. Ooty Hill deserves his chance today, though, and if he can find back to his form he’ll be a big runner with conditions very much to suit.

Ooty Hill @ 14/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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6.05 Chelmsford: Nursery (Class 5), 1m

Cogent makes his nursery debut and looks a very likeable sort. An opening mark off 70 looks stiff enough, but given the fact that he was far from disgraced in a super hot maiden when last time seen gives the indication that is a fair start. This son of Paco Boy is related to plenty of decent All-Weather winners and steps up to 1m which on pedigree will suit perfectly.

First time gelded today after a bit off a break, he makes plenty of appeal, given that sons of Paco Boy have often improved quite dramatically after a gelding op in the past. A good draw today is a help too – so in an open race, Cogent could easily outrun his odds.

Cogent @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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Kempton: Gelded Perche can be a big improver

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Belardo

6.10 Kempton: Maiden Stakes, 12f

Godolphin’s Perche cost a lot of money as a yearling and actually looked a promising sort on his two starts last year, albeit he showed some problems at the start in his final run back then. Back off a break in July, he reared at the gate and lost his race there. Gelded in the meantime, which usually works exceptionally well for sons of New Approach as well as trainer Charlie Appleby, he might be a bit more calm now.

Still lightly raced, he remains with loads of potential, and the 3lb claim of talented apprentice Kevin Scott as well as a good draw are a big bonus today. The step up to 12f is a slight question mark, albeit far from impossible.

Perche @ 9/1 VC – 5pts Win

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Market Rasen: Big Price’ Harris Can be involved

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Leicester Racecourse home straight

3.50 Market Rasen: Handicap Chase (Class 4), 3m 

Hard to put too much faith in any of the six starters, including the short favourite Ready Token. He has the best form in the book and has an ideal chance to overcome a career highest mark today. Whether he is good enough to do that, we’ll see.

From the bigger prices the Alan Brown runner Harris jumps out. He’s back after break but should be very much involved if fit, He won a Class 4 Handicap Chase at Bangor in April on good ground, but something was amiss the next next time. Off since then, and admittedly not a truly reliable sort, but still only five pounds higher today than his last success – what looks strong form .

Conditions should suit well and the yards goes well enough – so I can see Harris being very much involved here.

Harris @ 14/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Fontwell: Mile House A Danger Back Hurdling

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Becher's Brook

3.20 Fontwell: Handicap Hurdle (Class 2), 2m 3f

A fairly open race I feel, but someone has to move forward and make the next step to win this. Could it be Mile House? He doesn’t get much love in the betting but feel is too harshly judged on his latest efforts over fences.

The big obstacles didn’t work out for him but a return to hurdling could easily see him back to form. He won a good Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f back in July and looked long good the next time in a hot race off a 5lb higher mark. He was up with a quick pace but faded late to finish 3rd eventually.

Todays trip and track should suit down to the grounds though, and still rated 130 he may well be able to progress again now back hurdling given this is only his ninth start over the smaller obstacles. He makes appeal as a big price against the better fancied horses towards the top of the market.

Mile House @ 14/1 VC – 5pts Win

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Redcar: Tupi Can Bounce Back at Listed Level

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2.35 Ascot: Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

This is a pretty poor renewal given that each and every runner faces allot of question marks. It is hard to put much faith into favourite Romsdal, who is on past form the one to beat, but after all has never won over this trip and in fact, despite some high class placings, only won a maiden and an All-Weather listed race anyway. He looks vulnerable.

The only three year old in the race warrants respect, naturally, due to the weight allowance. Star Storm is only a decent handicapper to this date, though, and will need to improve a good deal to win this. He may well do it, but at the given price, I find him hard to fancy.

If one horse stands out in this field it is the filly Queen Of Ice. A multiple listed winner over 1m 4f as a three year old, she has run only twice this year and was a big disappointment in both starts. However she remains generally lightly raced. Tongue tied for the first time today and her low mileage may give her the edge in this race, and at a tasty price, I give her the nod.

Queen Of Ice @ 11/1 VC – 5pts Win

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3.35 Redcar: Guisborough Stakes (Listed), 7f

Guineas fifth Celestial Path has an obvious chance dropping heavily in class, given he has shown enough speed for 7f in the past either. However he hasn’t been seen for a long time. It might well be a positive to turn up fresh, but at a very short price I’m happy to leave him alone in the betting.

Much beloved Top Notch Tonto is extremely competitive at this level and has strong form to offer. Despite being a CD winner in the past, this drop in trip may not quite suit him on drying ground. Others are quicker.

So Beloved sets a high standard in my mind. He has top form to offer and loves the trip. But it won’t be easy giving weight away, which opens the door for three year old Tupi, who seems underappreciated in this field.

The Richard Hannon inmate has won two listed races over 7f and 1m earlier this year and was subsequently highly tried, without landing a blow against much too strong opposition. The drop back into listed class will help him surely to be competitive again. With trip and ground to suit, he deserves a crack at this and is overpriced big time.

Tupi @ 12/1 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saliisbury: Radhaadh deserves another chance

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Newmarket July Course

4.00 Salisbury: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 2f

Raw Impulse looks a strong favourite but at 9/4 is hardly a bet for me. Fellow three year old Radhaadh seems a big price compared, though. The filly got off the mark in a Chelmsford maiden over 10f two starts ago and did that in most impressive style.

Upped in trip to 1m 3f the next time in a hot handicap, she was racing for the lead, kicked on to win the race with the race leader over 3f out, however faded inside the final furlong. The slight drop in trip will surely suit better and the jury is still out whether she is up to her current mark.

She is related to smart Munaaser, though and well bred, which suggests there could be still more to come. She has the perfect draw today to accommodate her aggressive racing style – only concern I really have is the ground. She may well prefer a quicker surface. The sun over Salisbury will help though to dry out the last patches of soft… hopefully.

Radhaadh @ 16/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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Monday Selection: Gameplay A Big Price at Wolvs

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Warren Hill

7.10 Wolverhampton: Nursery (Class 6), 1m 141y

A poor nursery which gives well bred Gameplay a big chance to get off the mark on his nursery debut. He hasn’t shown a lot in three maidens, but the slight step up in trip and the fact that he gets into this race of an opening mark off 60 must give him a big chance.

Add to this that cheekpieces are applied for the first time and his recent gelding op – Mr. Appleby has a tremendous record with geldings first time out – and a price of 9/2 becomes suddenly quite a big one in a race like this. Gameplay could have easily more to offer.

Gameplay @ 9/2 Coral – 5pts Win

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Saturday Selections: Newbury

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2.15 Newbury: Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2), 6f

Wide open renewal, which lacks a real stand-out performer. I feel, though, rapidly improving King Robert is overpriced. He did a lot of good things in his two starts, overcoming all sorts of trouble. On his debut, when checked and short of room, he was brave and tough. He didn’t have a smooth run the next at Chester either. But he managed to win both times and found another gear when it mattered most.

Whether he is up to Group 2 level is in question We’ll find out today. Certainly he’ll appreciate the slow ground, as I fear on a faster surface he’d be probably quickly outpaced. But he acts fine on softish ground and seems a rather big price in this field.

King Robert @ 8/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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2.50 Newbury: Handicap (Class 2), 1m 2f

Burano is a highly attractive price today given he finds his preferred conditions. Down to his last winning mark at the moment he should be competitive on the soft ground, as he won a similar race at this track last year on a rain softened surface. He seemed to find back to some sort of form when last seen at Goodwood. He wasn’t too far beaten in a hot race, but will appreciate the additional furlong and good pace today.

Burano @ 25/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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Big Race Preview: St Leger

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2000 Guineas Field going to post

Only seven go to post in this years St Leger, which shapes to be a below-par renewal. Its status in the world of racing has diminished in the last decades, but this year seems a real low point. Further to this you can add the likelihood of softish ground. It won’t be an exciting race to watch and not one that will live beyond today in our memory.

Anyway, the favourite Storm The Stars is a very decent individual. He finally scored on Group level when he landed the Group 2 Voltigeur Stakes in a controversial finish. In other countries, his interference with Bondi Beach would have cost them the race – not so in Brittain.

Stepping up in trip will Suit Storm The Stars though. He looks an out and stayer and will probably fine on the soft ground. He is a fair favourite.

Ballydoyle has two good chances in the race. Bondi Beach looks a progressive stayer. He was unlucky in the Voltigeur as pointed out before. This trip will suit him down to the grounds and he’s fine on the ground. He’s a better chance than Fields of Athenry, who flopped in the Ebor.

While I fancy Bondi Beach to win the Leger, for price reasons do opt with Medrano. He is a long way off the standard to win a Group 1… normally. However this is not a normal Group 1. It’s a poor one. The ground will play right into his hands, and so should the trip. He has a pretty good chance to be able to pull out a bit more over 2m. For a big price, he’s the one I select against the more fancied runners.

Medrano @ 33/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Doncaster Preview: Mallard Handicap

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.30 Doncaster: Mallard Handicap (Class 2), 1m 6f, 132y

A wide open handicap for stayers and a clash of the young with the old. For the veterans, I feel Noble Silk is an interesting contender back up in trip – he warrants more respect than his big price tag suggests. He is usually consistent and can go close here, albeit his mark offers little room for error. This is a recurring theme in this field as most have either to prove a point or have to overcome career highest marks.

Royal Signaller is another one of the brigade of older horses who has fair credentials on form, given that he should appreciate this marathon trip, but who is not on an overly favourable handicap mark. We have not seen the best of four year old Battersa yet, so this new trip and the likelihood of good ground may help him to find back to his fine three year old form.

Others like Pressure Point or Curbyourenthusiasm may not appreciate the very long distance, while Saved By The Bell would need to find a huge amount of improvement to overcome a career highest mark.

The classic generation seems to hold the key in this contest, though. First and foremost bottom weight Not Never. A fine runner-up last month, it is not unreasonable to think that he can progress further for his sixth career start. Whether he can win relies on his stamina, however – which is untested beyond the 1m 6f trip.

Not Never was a slightly unlucky second behind Polarisation. This hardy Mark Johnston gelding had already an awful lot of racing in his career but seems to thrive for it and finds ways to win. His stamina will the tested to the limit today and personally I feel the trip is beyond him.

Godolphin’s Future Empire was once thought to be a potential Derby contender, although it became clear pretty soon that he is a rather slow horse, once he returned to the track this year in the Derby Trial. So far he has only won a maiden on his debut, however he has ran three big races in succession on his last starts when 3rd at Royal Ascot in the Queen’s Vase, then runner-up behind smart Mr Singh in a Group 3 at Newmarket, and most recently runner-up again, then at Musselburgh in Handicap company.

That day, he was beaten by Pressure Point whom he meets today again – however on different terms. Future Empire didn’t cope particularly well with the fast track that Musselburgh is, however stayed on in very impressive style. He looks an out and out stayer who will certainly appreciate the step up to this trip here. While his mark went up, he could well improve for this extreme test of stamina.

Future Empire @ 7/1 William Hill – 5pts Win