Category Archives: United Kingdom

United Kingdom

Saturday Betting: Cheltenham

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Nice drift for Dark Spirit today, who won nicely at 11/1 in the end, storming up the hill for her inexperienced rider in the saddle. A relieve, a nice, big winner – finally again! It didn’t continue that way. Drumlee Sunset finished only 2nd. He was beaten for speed in the end.

2.10 Cheltenham: Class 2 Handicap Chase, 2m

Question marks surrounding most of this field, but I do really like Going Concern for the in-form Evan Williams yard. a progressive sort last season over fences, he has won three of his last six starts. He has to defy a career highest mark and was disappointing when last seen in April, but has done well off a break in the past.

Conditions should suit down to the grounds, with the rain expected over Cheltenham tomorrow not having to be an inconvenience

Going Concern @ 11/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.30 Cheltenham: Class 2 Novice Chase, 2m 4f

I was initially very much drawn towards Parlour Games. The classy Novice hurdler left a lasting impression but whether this flat bred gelding can take to chasing is very much up in the air. Also I had the perception that he is best on a flat track and that Cheltenham doesn’t quite suit.

As the value alternative I really like Double Shuffle though. Bred to be a chaser, he is still lightly raced, was progressive last year, has form in an Irish point to point and will love the trip. He has only won at flat tracks yet, so Cheltenham is very much an unknown. But with the low weight he makes appeal.

Double Shuffle @ 12/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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Friday Betting: Cheltenham Selections

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The Festival

3.20 Cheltenham: Class 2 Hurdle, 3m

I missed the big prices for Dark Spirit but still feel the current odds represent some fair value in this field for a mare that likes the track, the ground and has won over this sort of trip in the past. Her record fresh is fine and the drop back into handicaps will suit.

She wasn’t disgraced in much better races towards the end last year, however clearly found out for class there. She remains a progressive mare nonetheless and is on fair mark. The help of a decent 10lb claimer is a bonus though, given that the yard is going strongly in recent weeks too.

Dark Spirit @ 6/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.30 Cheltenham: Maiden Hurdle, 2m

Drumlee Sunset is a very exciting prospect. Connections paid some good money for him at the sales after he won a pretty good point to point in Ireland. He justified optimism when landing an Exeter NHF in February.

He should be ready to go and instead while the quick ground in combination with the minimum distance is a slight concern, I would expect him to have too much on the plate for his rivals here. Connections could have targeted a better race to start off but want to give him an “easy” race to start the campaign off, building from here on.

Drumlee Sunset @ 11/8 Coral – 10pts Win

United Kingdom

Tuesday Selections

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2.20 Windsor: Class 5 Nursery, 6f

Recently gelded and with first time cheek-pieces I feel Another Boy deserves another chance. He drops in class as well has been given a chance by the handicapper after a couple of decent, albeit far from exciting performances. He third placed effort in a three runner race lto doesn’t look exciting at all. though it came against two pretty decent rivals and the form looks good. The race wasn’t run to suit him, yet he stayed on to be beaten only two lengths after all.

A return to a bigger field should help. And if the gelding op and headgear have any sort of positive effect, he should go close today – although the draw isn’t the kindest. He seems a bit overpriced nonetheless.

Another Boy @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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8.40 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 1f 103y

Horrible race with not much recent form on offer. However Vastly makes plenty of appeal here, dropping in class and stepping up in trip after two very respectable efforts on the All-Weather over 1m. The gelding didn’t appear to like Chelmsford lto and was badly outpaced, though was game and genuine in the closing stages in a race that looks not too shabby on paper in terms of how the form has worked out since.

Vastly has won over course and distance in the past, albeit pre-tapeta times. He’s done that in February 2014 of a mark off 68, had since then only four more starts, the last two respectable, as mentioned. He’s 6lb lower rated at the moment, so that gives him an excellent chance in this field to find back to form.

A decent 3b claimer has been booked for the ride, which adds to the arguments pro Vastly here. If he can only improve slightly for the last two outings and the trip, he’s gonna go very close.

Vastly @ 9/2 William Hill – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Kempton: Maputo A Rock Solid Favourite

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3.20 Kempton: Novices’ Hurdle (Listed), 2m

Maputo looks rock solid favourite and very hard to beat if he progresses as he promised in all his start over hurdles so far. A Group 3 winner on the flat and Group 2 placed as well, he has taken well to this discipline. Three starts, three wins, and a very impressive performance two weeks ago at Huntingdon brings him along nicely.

He didn’t win by much but was hardly off the bridle that day – the runner-up won a decent race subsequently by a country mile – so it’s fair to assume Maputo is potentially well up to Grade 3 level.

Swansea Mile is an interesting alternative. He wasn’t quite lucky on his debut run at Market Rasen. I feel he may have not the speed required over flat 2m on quick ground though. Returning Midnhight Shot hasn’t been anything of note so far but is open to improvement.

I believe Maputo is a clear favourite hear and should be odds-on. Coral’s evens looks out of place.

Maputo @ EVS Coral – 10pts Win

United Kingdom

Wolverhampton: Amazing Blue Sky Can Make All

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20.45 Wolverhampton: Handicap (Class 6), 1m 4f

There is not much depth in this race and that is the reason why San Quentin is such a short favourite. He certainly has the form to land this but has to overcome a career highest mark. He may well do so, as the only other real danger seems to be A Little Bit Dusty, who has form over course and distance.

But what is very much evident in this race: lack of pace. That brings notorious front-runner Amazing Blue Sky into the equation. The 12f trip is his absolut stamina limit, so one has to hope that no surprise comes out and presses for the lead – on paper ABS should have it all to himself and that can often be n advantage at Wolverhampton.

The veteran hasn’t too much in the form book at the moment and the yard is not in any sort of form. It’s a speculative pick, based on the facts of Amazing Blue Sky finding here the perfect conditions today, which means he can be competitive if he’s on a good day.

Amazing Blue Sky @ 16/1 Coral – 5pts Win 

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Selections for British Champions Day

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Territories

1.55 Ascot: British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)

I’m a big fan of lightly raced Sea Calisi who seems to have the right traits to land this Group 1. She has been progressive all year, making the transition from Group 3 to the highest level seamingless. A Group 2 winner in her native France in June, followed an impressive performance in the Yorkshire Oaks where she was unlucky not finish closer than her third place, one and a half lengths beaten by Pleascach.

Sea Calisi was a long-shot in the Arc Trial Prix Vermeille last month, but ran a big race when third behind Treve – who that day, was from another planet.

There is every reason to believe that this likeable three year old filly can still improve – I certainly believe a big victory is due! Her high cruising speed will allow her to make the progress from the back of the field from 4f out where it’s usually the crucial point for those held up.

Sea Calisi @ 13/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

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2.30 Ascot; Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

Still unclear what the situation is with Gleneagles. The ground is against him, so much is sure. Sollow in contrast is certain to run and will appreciate the underfoot conditions. On form he’s very hard to beat here. But Territories is an interesting alternative. The three year old with the weight advantage, has very strong form and should love the trip on slightly easy ground.

3.05 Ascot: Champion Stakes (Group 1)

Difficult race. I believe Jack Hobbs is not as much a clear favourite as the odds say, for the reason of his poor draw and the ground not really what he wants.

However from the older horses Fascinating Rock is a fascinating contender. He’ll love the ground and the trip, has been in excellent form this season and proved his class at this level – he should be right there when it matters.

Both Territories and Fascinating Rock have good chances to go close and be placed at least. They offer some “each-way-value” combined as a double.

Territories+Fascinating Rock @ 164/1 Paddy Power – 2.5pts E/W

United Kingdom

Kempton: Cascading potentially well in

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

8.15 Kempton: Fillies Handicap (Class 4), 7f

Milady could be too good if she stays the trip, which isn’t unlikely, but given the prices I feel fellow three year old Cascading is better value. She has been in excellent form in recent weeks, without getting her head in front. When last seen here at this scene, albeit over 1m, she looked the winner one furlong out, just to get a bit tired and get beaten by a shoulder eventually.

I’m not 100% whether she really has the speed required to win over 7f, but it is worth dropping back and try as despite a revised mark, she could still be well in, particularly in a race like this today, where most appear exposed.

Cascading can race as the bottom weight, and it should help going head to head with her own sex this time too. From a good draw, she should be in the perfect spot when it matters and it’d be disappointing if she isn’t in the money at least, given she finished only once in seven starts on the AW outside the placings.

Cascading @ 13/2 Bet365 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Windsor: St Saviour Can Bounce Back

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Lexington Times

5.00 Windsor: Handicap (Class 4), 1m 2f

If the ground dries further it’ll be a big help to favourite Freight Train who is sure to try and make all. There is a bit of pace in the field though and with a bit of rain expected around Monday afternoon, soft patches are likely to remain in the ground, so it could expose the in-form Mark Johnston inmate.

Devonshire Place makes appeal dropping back to 10f. I’m worried though that his racing style will leave him with too much to do when it matters.

I feel St Saviour deserves another chance and could be quite a bit overpriced. After a below par effort at Sandown last month he has been dropped to a mark off 79 but in reality could be easily be a bit better than that.

He showed plenty of promise when 3rd here at Windor in a super hot maiden back in April, a form that works out extremely well. He got off the mark two starts later in a small field at Brighton but flopped subsequently as mentioned before. But it was a very competitive race in bottomless conditions off a higher mark – so lets draw a line through the performance.

Good to Soft ground at Windsor should suit well though as he acted well on it at Brighton, and with Oisin Murphy in the saddle, St Saviour may bounce back here.

St Saviour @ 12/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Betting: Sunday Selections

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Ivawood

3.05 Goodwood: Class 4 Nursery, 7f

Lightly raced Alabaaly only makes his second start in this company after showing some decent promise in three maiden races. First time blinkers lid him up the last time and he tired badly towards the end, yet finished 3rd nonetheless. Headgear has been dropped, he’s 3lb down in the mark and has been gelded in the meantime – a promising combination which should see him in much better light today.

Alabaaly @ 10/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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4.30 Chepstow PERSIAN WAR NOVICES´ HURDLE (Grade 2)

Emerging Talent sets a fine standard but can be opposed at a skinny price, given he has to prove that he can find something off the bridle – although the step up in trip should suit.

Against him Definite Outcome looks a reasonable danger. He is a former Irish point winner, who got easily off the mark in a NHF back in March when he looks still raw and green. He’s probably a nice chaser in the making but should take well to hurdling as well, for the moment. The trip must not be an issue and with the yard going well, he’s an interesting runner.

Definite Outcome @ 4/1 VC – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Saturday Betting: Chepstow

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Becher's Brook

3.55 Chepstow: Hamilton Hurdle (Handicap, Class 2), 2m

I really like Stars Over The Sea to do well here. He seems on a fair weight given his excellent performances last season, where he finished 4th in two big Grade 1’s at Aintree and Punchestown. Chepstow has the best possible jumping ground today which will suit this him allot and given that he had done extremely well as a fresh horse in the ears before, I would expect him to be a big runner today.

Stars Over The Sea @ 10/1 Coral -5pts Win

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4.30 Chepstow: Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Group 3), 2m 3f 100y

Plenty to like about progressive Our Kaempfer. Trainer Charlie Longsdon has his string in excellent order at this time of the year, so Our Kaempfer should be primed for a big run. A first handicap start for this six year old who really excelled last season over hurdles, winning twice and rounding it up with a big effort in the Grade 1 Sefton at Aintree.

Good ground and the trip should suit perfectly today and with only five starts over timber under his belt there is every reason to believe Our Kaempfer can improve again this year. He’s a tasty price against the overbet first two in the market.

Our Kaempfer @ 10/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win