Going to the beach this afternoon! But not for a swim, but for racing! It’s the annual raceday on the Laytown beach, and it’s the first time for me to go. Finally! I though it would never happen. The races are low grade but the scenery is unique + I’ve identified a couple of “good things”.
4.10 Laytown: 50-70 Handicap, 6f
Mr Bounty makes appeal in this field now down to a very workable mark again. He won here at Laytown last year over 6f off a 1lb higher mark and won a decent Navan sprint back in April off his current mark. He should be competitive with the weight and course sure to suit.
Mr Bounty @ 6/1 William Hill – 5pts Win
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4.45 Laytown: 47-65 Handicap, 6f
Doonard Prince was a good runner-up here at Laytown in a better race off a 9lb higher mark last year. He won an Apprentice Handicap off 61 earlier this year but has largely been poor since then. Down to a mark of 59, he should go close if the return to the beach helps him to regain some of his form.
Doonard Prince @ 13/2 SkyBet – 5pts Win
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6.25 Laytown: 50-80 Handicap, 7f
Veteran Swiss Cross is a versatile horse who can win on a variety of trips and grounds. He has been a bit on and off this season but ran well more often than not. Down a mark off 76 he should be thereabouts in a race that lacks depth.
4.10 Curragh: Debutante Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2), 7f
Minding appears to be the 3rd string for Ballydoyle judged by jockey bookings but she looks massively overpriced her nonetheless. She is extremely well bred and should enjoy this trip big time. She tried 7f on her debut but was there very green and bumped into a smart winner when finishing fine runner-up.
She stepped up her game when dropped to 6f subsequently and won a Leopardstown maiden with ease. She still looked green and awkward, very head strong and keen. However she kicked clear easily and should have learned plenty. There is much more to come from her and she could be a proper Guineas candidate if she does well today.
A really competitive sprint handicap on the Dundalk All-Weather with 107 rated Russian Soul topping the field. However not many seem to be well handicapped today. Certainly not the three top weights.
Progressive Have A Nice Day is a fair favourite, given he has been in splendid form lately and may still be on the upward. The drop in trip is against him though. Consistent Master Speaker has found a way to get his head in front this year. Can he do it again? I wouldn’t bet on it.
Togoville loves it on the All-Weather. The trip should be too sharp but off his current mark he has a chance if he could lead at a pace that suits him. Ger Lyons’ Trinity Force responded well to the change in trip and first time blinkers the last time. He can be competitive today again, although his trainer voiced slight concerns over the slow surface.
I’m most intrigued by old boy An Saighdiur who may have found a good opportunity to score. He certainly acts around here, is is a course specialist who’s best over 6f and while he didn’t set the world alight in recent weeks, he’s dropped to a dangerous mark. He was a good 3rd in a Naas Handicap earlier this year off an 8lb higher mark. So I feel he is overpriced today.
An Saighdiur @ 14/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win
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4.15 Dundalk: Handicap, 1m 2f 150y
Despite a wide draw and the drop in trip potentially not quite suitable, Botany Bay makes appeal to me big time. Forgive him his latest run, he is better judged on his penultimate start when winning a hot Handicap at Down Royal, which is extremely strong form given how it worked out subsequently. Botany Bay is still learning the game could have easily more offer from his current mark.
It’s easy to see why Cougar Mountain is odds-on. He took on some of the hottest milers in the world this season and didn’t fare to badly. I feel, though, he has been flattered by the results. he doesn’t seem to have the cruising speed required to win at top level. Nonetheless that gives him a clear shot at an easier target today. He’s vulnerable to the younger horses, though.
Of the tiro of three year olds, Tamadhor is hard to fancy, but Convergence and Raydara must have excellent chances to win this race. The former one has already won a Group 3 at this track earlier this year. He carries a penalty for the success but with further improvement might be able to defy it.
However everything points to a big run of Raydara. The filly is a juvenile Group 2 winner and will appreciate the quick ground today. It was a tough assignment to kick off her classic campaign in the Irish 1.000 Guineas where she didn’t land a blow, not surprisingly. But her subsequently 4th place in the Group 2 Kilboy Estate Stakes rates a big performance. She travelled like the winner until the final furlong marker, found the 9f trip then a bit too far eventually.
Dropped back to a mile, on quick ground, she should be a big runner. She receives tons of weight all around from her rivals and on this terms she looks the most likely winner in the race for me. I consider her to be overpriced at 7/2 in this small field.
The Vincent Delaney Memorial weekend is the highlight of the Irish harness racing season. Reason enough for me to get down to Portmanock where Ireland’s premier harness raceway is located. Haven’t been to harness racing for many years – the last time must have been a decade ago in Berlin at “Trabrennbahn Mariendorf” – I was intrigued to see how the experience would compare to the Irish thoroughbred racing scene.
So, last Sunday was some kind of new land for me, although I had in mind to go to Portmanock for quite a while. But if you’re not actively looking for it you wouldn’t know it’s on, never mind there is such thing as harness racing in Ireland. Finding the track itself can be a bit troublesome as well, if you’re not familiar with the area.
But once you’re there it’s just great fun. Obviously the crowd is different to what you would meet on a balmy Sunday afternoon at the Curragh. It’s a bit more raw, I’d say. Well, “honest”, is probably the right word. I certainly enjoyed. Some pints, some bets, you’re close to the action…. it’s a great day out!
The trip is a concern for the favourite, although the light weight is a huge advantage for Laganore. I feel the horses higher up the marks facing quite a stiff task and my interest mainly applies to the lower weights.
With Laganore making not much appeal due to a shocking price, the next best choice appears to be Wonder Holy. Of a mark off 79 with a useful 5lb claimer in the saddle, he is an intriguing sort.
He hinted a bit of ability in a maiden at Fairyhouse when he finished strongly coming from an impossible position. He got off the mark the next time at Killarney, when again not favoured by the way the race was ran, but he got there in time.
Today represents a massive step up in class, but I believe there is a good chance he is a bit better than his current rating. He has a good draw today and the ground won’t bother him at all – therefore he seems quite a big price.
Gordon Lord Byron could be hard to beat here. He has been in fine form lateley and finds perfect conditions at the Curragh. British raider Home Of The Brave won’t go down with a fight, though. He has shown some excellent form this year and seven furlongs looks his optimum. It remains to be seen how he acts on the ground.
Sovereign Debt was an impressive winner on Irish Derby Day here at the Curragh. That day everything fell into place for him. The drop to 7f will surely suit, though. Ramone is a tough mare but may need a stiffer test. Dark Emerald was progressive in Meydan, nonetheless a career best is required today.
Jim Bolger’s Flight Risk was a surprise winner of the Gladness Stakes back in April. This form has worked out very well, while the four year old colt has proven his class since then too. Some creditable efforts in Group company subsequently, rounded up with an unlucky runner-up effort in the Celebrations Stakes behind Sovereign Debt last month.
The race wasn’t run at a suitable pace for him, but turning for home he made good progress on the inside and looked to mount a big challenge, but got stuck on the rails with no room to go. Kevin Manning switched wide, which cost ground and momentum, yet Flight Risk flew home late.
Ground and trip will suit today. There should be a good pace ensured, and while it is not easy to give weight away, he is clearly in excellent form and can go close.
3.45 Curragh: Kilboy Estate Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2), 1m 1f
Favourite Brooch ran inexplicably flat in the Pretty Polly Stakes, she is better than that, but has to concede an awful lot of weight here once again. That makes her vulnerable. Talmada’s recent runner-up effort behind subsequent Irish Oaks winner Covert Love sets a strong standard, but the slight drop in trip isn’t sure to suit.
Mutatis Mutandis could go close if she doesn’t miss the kick this time, while strong travelling sort Bocca Baciata will be much better suited by this test than when last seen at Royal Ascot. Raydara has to bounce back from a poor seasonal comeback run.
I’m intrigued by Godolphin’s Local Time. She looked smart at Meydan, won the UEA 1000 Guineas and Oaks earlier this year. She hasn’t been able to back these performances up since her return to Europe. But both times she competed in Group 1 class on quick ground, and the slight drop in class as well as an easier surface may help her to find back her best.
Saeed bin Suroor is adamant that she needs a bit of give in the going, that is the reason why they are coming over to Ireland. It has rained over night quite heavily which should clearly benefit Local Time’s cause. 9 furlongs could be an ideal trip too. I feel she deserves another chance and she could well able to outrun her price tag.
Ribblesdale Stakes winner Curvy sets a strong the standard in the Irish Oaks. She is progressive, has strong course form and couldn’t have done more to impress at Royal Ascot. But there are plenty of dangers in this field so it certainly won’t be a walk in the park for the 5/2 favourite.
Aiden O’Brien’s cavalry consists of “only” three runners, after Qualify pulled out. Munster Oaks winner Words is the most fancied one of the trio. Only two starts to date, she can improve again and is clearly poised for a big run. Stable mate Together Forever was well beaten in the Epsom Oaks. She was up with a strong pace, got hampered 2f out and tired subsequently. She deserves another chance.
So does Kissed By Angels. An impressive winner of a hot 1m Leopardstown maiden earlier this year, she was last seen at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas. After stumbling out off the gate, she probably made a bit too much early on, yet travelled quite strongly a most parts of the race – though didn’t find anything when it really mattered. Jockey booking is a big negative but the step up in trip should suit.
Jack Naylor wasn’t quite suited be run of the Epsom Oaks. She was a big eye-catcher in the Irish 1000 Guineas though and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her bounce back today. Jessica Harrington’s charge remains clearly with potential.
Three English raiders try their luck: James Fanshawe’s progressive Speedy Boarding faces arguably her toughest test. She is an intriguing contender, nonetheless. The same could be said about John Gosden’s Gretchen. She was thrown into deep water at Royal Ascot. On the back of a good maiden win, she run her heart out in the Ribblesdale Stake. Although caught wide in the home turn, she lost an awful lot of ground subsequently, She’ll have learned plenty on that day.
Hugo Palmers ships over Covert Love. This filly is still unbeaten in three starts this year and she may improve again as she steps up to 12f for the first time today.
Verdict: Intriguing contest. Curvy is a fair favourite but there is plenty of opposition in this race capable of taking her scalp. Together Forever with less aggressive tactics could be the main danger. But price wise I believe stable mate Kissed By Angels is massively overpriced. Still lightly raced, she travelled well in the Guineas and this new trip could see her in much better light.
Over the top is also the price on offer for Gretchen. She was green at Royal Ascot and didn’t have the run of the race. The galloping Curragh will suit down to the grounds and with natural progression she is a huge runner.
Gretchen @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win Kissed By Angels @ 33/1 Betfred – 5pts Win
Yesterday afternoon at around 5pm I was pretty depressed…. but then came Dartmouth who got me out of the hole with his dominant success at Ascot. What started like a bleak day, ended in modest 10pts profit. Could have been better if not for hitting the post twice. Lightning Spear in particular was unlucky, as he ran into all sorts of trouble in the home straight.
3.45 Dundalk: Handicap (57-75), 7f
Good racing at Dundalk’s All-Weather today. The 7f handicap looks an intriguing contest. Favourite Ishebayorgrey has been a model of consistency and can race off the same mark as when he won a good 6f race at Leopardstown last month. Though he appears to be vulnerable over this trip; the additional furlong seems to stretch his stemina.
Some lightly raced and potentially well handicapped sorts can make their presence felt. Most interesting is Escapism on her handicap debut, however. The John Oxx charge has done not too badly in maiden races, most notably eleven days ago in a hot sprint. She travelled well but seemed to be out-sprinted in the closing stages.
She steps up to 7f now which should certainly suit on pedigree. Both sire and dam have won over this trip; in fact she is not badly bred at all. An opening mark of 66 is lenient in my eyes, given her most recent performance and the potential improvement to come over this trip. The All-Weather surface won’t be an issue either.
Escapism @ 7/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
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4.15 Dundalk: Marshes Handicap, 5f
Ultra competitive race with plenty of pace – it should be fast and furious. You can’t discount anyone lightly here, but Ger Lyons’ Ardhoomey is particularly well fancied in the betting after a good performance in a hot Curragh Premier Handicap. He did well to finish 4th from the position he came from and gets help from the handicapper who drops him below a mark of 100 now: his wind problems in the past are a concern, though.
My Good Brother showed a return to form when an unlucky fourth at Fairyhouse. He is down to a handy mark and should go close. Lightly raced Urbestchance is interesting here, dropping in trip on her handicap debut. She is open to any amount of progress.
Old boy Russian Soul will have to overcome a wide draw in order to get to the front in a race where competition for the lead is likely to be fierce. The big weight is even more likely to stop him anyway. Prince Connoisseur hasn’t been any good this year so far but slipped down to a dangerous mark if back to his best.
I really do like Kimbay, who appears to be overpriced. She has been very progressive the last two seasons, and it didn’t stop this year as she got close on her seasonal reappearance and then took advantage of a drop to her prefered 5f trip at Tipperary. Forgive her last performance at the Curragh where she wasn’t in a good position.
She has been dropped 3lb for that and is now effectively only 4lb above her last winning mark. She could be still well in, particularly today where she is returning to Dundalk’s All-Weather. She is unbeaten in three starts over course and distance and should be a major player of her low weight here.
Kimbay @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win
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4.50 Dundalk: Conditions Race, 1m 1f
Only three runners, and with Xebec exposed as a mid-80 rated handicapper, this should be a match between Outspoken and Don Camillo.
Outspoken was a fair runner-up behind stable mate Archangel Raphael. He is very lightly raced and open to further improvement, the switch to the All-Weather may not be an inconvenience. Says the slight drop in trip is not sure to suit given how one-paced he looked as well as easily outpaced one the tempo of the race increased turning for home. He’s clearly no superstar.
Dermot Weld’s Don Camillo was utterly disappointing last week in a listed event at Roscommon. However the race itself was a strange one, so was the ground. He was eased in the closing stages and may be better judged on what he did before. He wasn’t disgraced in Group company at Royal Ascot, and I liked what he did on the Dundalk All-Weather before.
He won here a maiden in great fashion and travelled all over older & more experienced rivals in a Handicap off a mid-90 mark the next time. He was outstayed eventually but should have learned plenty.
He was thought to be good enough to warrant an entry for the US Triple Crown series earlier this year, though he didn’t take it up eventually. Nonetheless quite well bred, by a Breeders Cup Classic winner, Don Camillo is likely to relish this trip and the surface. With a visor fitted for the first time, he can be sharper in the closing stages now.
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