Category Archives: Global Racing

Global Racing

Preview: Melbourne Cup

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Jockeys Joe O'Brien

Four hours…. then it’s Santa knocking on the door! Well, kind of… at least if you’re a racing fan, like I am. I love the Melbourne Cup to bits, my favourite race of the year. The build-up to the big race is sensational, the atmosphere surrounding a packed Flemington racetrack leaving goosebumps on my neck year after year… quite simply: it’s the race that stops a nation! One day I’ll be there and take it in all in flesh.

Not this year though, that’s for sure. But maybe backing the winner tonight could be a stepping stone to finance the flights for 2016? Let’s wait and see. I never backed the winner, although had a couple of each-way selections placed in the last number of years….

It looks a wide open race in my mind. Nonetheless you see some mad short prices in the betting market. That says I can’t have the Japanese runner Fame Game at all. He may have a good draw and some big form, but how does this translate into the race the Melbourne Cup is? 4/1 or shorter seems a mad price in my mind.

Trip To Paris is second favourite, currently a 7/1 chance. He has not the kindest of draws but it could have been worse. He impressed me in the Caulfield Cup and I really like him. He’s a tough, genuine stayer. But hardly value at his current price. Unfortunately.

I really don’t understand why a National Hunt horse is a short 7/1 third favourite to land the Melbourne Cup. Sorry. Willie Mullins is a great trainer and Max Dynamite an excellent horse under both codes, he has strong form in the book but had an absolute dream run in the Lonsdale Cup – this is a completely different ball game, in my mind. I can’t see it happening.

Last years Victoria Derby winner Prefermant is hot on the machines. I don’t wanna pretend to know him well. Could be anything potentially, depending on whether he stays the trip. Class is there it seems, good draw too. But at 10/1? Not for me.

I absolutely loved the way Almoonqith won the Geelong Cup recently. But that was only a Group 3 and much more is required here. He might be found out for class. Same could apply to The United States. Formerly a Group 3 winner in Ireland, he landed the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Others are better treated.

Criterion has been in top form lately but the trip should find him out off a big weight. Multiple German Group 1 winner Our Ivanhowe had a great preparation to the big race since arriving in Australia. A wide draw and doubts over this stamina let me shy away from him.

Now, there is one horse that stands out of the crowd in my mind: Bondi Beach. When this lightly raced stayer won a Group 3 at the Curragh earlier this year, a day I was there and saw him in flash battling hard with stable mate Order Of St. George who subsequently landed the Irish St Leger in brilliant style, I thought this lad is the real deal if is about a staying prospect.

He subsequently lost two big races in the stewards room, most importantly the English St Leger after appeal weeks after the actual race. That doesn’t take much away from the fact he is a proper Group 1 stayer, proven in fact. Now he has to take on older horses but you can argue that he weight he receives doesn’t stand in the right context to his class and what he should actually carry.

There aren’t too many proper Group 1 horses in this race, and less than a handful are Group 1 stayers anyway. Bondi Beach is. At 16’s he looks a massive price. Granted he gets a run. The draw isn’t ideal and he’ll need luck. But favoring that into the price I still don’t get my head around this price tag.

Bondi Beach @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Preview: Breeders Cup Classic

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Breeders Cup Classic (Grade 1)

All about American Pharoah of course! Can he end his amazing career with a triumph in the Breeders Cup Classic? Well, he’s the favourite, but surely has to be at his best to see of some strong competition. Mind you he has been on the go for a long time this year.

I’m prepared to take him on. You could say he was a bit unlucky in the Travers where he battled with Frosted from a long way out. nonetheless it might have been also a fact of him having so much racing this season. Did it wear him down?

Honor Code is seen as one of the main dangers. He’s usually spectacular when he wins. But the trip is a question mark today. It could be too far.

Tonalist was more than five lengths beaten in the Classic last year but has been in excellent form lately. He can go close but needs things to fall right for him to win. Keen Ice the Travers winner can’t be expected to follow-on from this success. He profited from the two main contenders making their respective moves way too early.

No doubt Gleneagles is an intriguing contender. It all evolves around his ability to handle the dirt. His fate might be obvious after the first furlong ran in case he struggles then. His ability is there, of course, but I find it hard to have to much believe in that this is the right kind of test for him.

Whether Frosted is good enough to land a major Grade 1 remains to be seen. The jury is still out. He has improved with his racing this year, though, and fought one or another battle with American Pharoah before. That says he is not quite as talented as the Triple Crown winner, but looked excellent when landing the Pennsylvania Derby in excellent style.

One a Grade 2, but it proves Frosted holds his form and must rate a major contender today. For me he is the value in this race and I expect him to outrun his price tag.

Frosted  @ 20/1 Ladbrokes / 5pts Win 

Global Racing

Preview: Breeders Cup Mile

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7.30 Breeders Cup Mile (Grade 1)

Very hot race which becomes even more open since the ground has further dried out. The French have a strong hand in this with Make Believe a clear favourite. The colt has top form in the book and has a good draw at his disposal. However there are a couple others who are likely to join him in a bid for the early pace.

French filly Impassable is a lovely progressive sort and with first time lasix must enter calculations. I fancy her to go well. Another filly, Tepin, makes appeal for the home team. She has been in excellent form lately and I like her, but feel she is a right price, the same as the French filly.

Esoterique and Time Test are top notchers too and should do well if the pace isn”t too hot form them.

There is some value to find here in this race on Grand Arch I feel who is way overpriced. A winner of the Group 1 Shadwell Turf mile here at Keeneland, he has top form and may get the race to his liking. Stalking a strong pace and then kick on when it matters.

Grand Arch @ 33/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Preview: Breeders Cup Friday

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7.30 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)

Aiden O’Brien has two very strong contenders in a race he has won twice in the past. Hit A Bomb is probably the strongest candidate of the two Aiden saddles –  the colt scooted home at Dundalk when last seen after he got off the mark on his debut. Clearly a very talented individual, he would be very hard to beat if he hadn’t been drawn in the car park. Ryan Moore will have to work his magic. It won’t be easy.

Soft ground is detrimental to the chance of Ballydoyle’s second string, Shogun. He drowned at his only try in really soft conditions, however looked special when winning a maiden at the Curragh on good to yielding ground – similar to what is expected at Keeneland’s turf track today.

Whether he can perform on this sort of ground to a level that is required to be competitive in in top race like this remains to be seen – but connections hailed this colt as a special one not so long ago. I really liked his performance at Longchamp earlier this month when he finished  strongly in a race he meat plenty of in-running trouble. He wasn’t far beaten in the end behind Cymric, who finished a close runner-up that day and is one of the leading fancies here again.

Shogun has a good draw and I would hope to see him being ridden positively as the trip shouldn’t be a problem. He looks a colt we haven’t seen the best of yet and I believe he is underestimated.

Shogun @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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8.50 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)

A wide open race for the juvenile fillies. Aiden O’Brien saddles the favourite with progressive Alice Springs. There is plenty to like about her: draw is handy, trip will suit this Galileo filly, fine form in the book. Question mark is the ground. It’s likely to be tacky. We have to see if that really suits her.

Harmonize was a nice winner of the Grade 3 Jessamin Stakes here at Keeneland recently. She encountered a wide trip and did well to win from where she came from. Interesting though that the horse beaten in second by half a lengths seemed to have a more ideal run visually, but in fact only saved a neglectable amount of ground according to Trakus figures.

The runner-up that day was Sapphire Kitten. A very lightly raced filly. That was only her second career start and she travelled really nicely. She seemed to be outstayed eventually, but that means the slight drop in trip to 1m will suit today. How she copes with the ground is a question for all in the field – on pedigree she has a fair chance to handle it just fine. At 16/1 she is a nice value play in this field.

John Gosden has brought over talented sprinter Illuminate. Already a Group 2 winner and excellent runner-up in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes, she has obvious credentials to land this race if her stamina lasts. I’m not all that confident in that in the ground conditions.

One that doesn’t seem to get any love is formerly in Ireland trained Last Waltz. She’s having his first start in the US today after showing plenty of promise in his native country. She was a close 3rd in the Group 3 Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh when last seen, where showed plenty of early speed and was just beaten in the dying strides. That encourages me to believe that she can overcome her wide draw here.

The ground won’t be an issue either I believe. Given that it is drying all the time, she should be okay. On pedigree the step up to 1m will suit her well enough too and first time lasix can only be a positive – so at 20/1 she is quite a big price.

One more to mention is Catch A Glimpse. A two times winner on turf, she is likely to be up with the early pace from a good draw and may well improve if she can cope with the ground.

Sapphire Kitten @ 16/1 VC – 5pts Win
Last Waltz @ 20/1 WIlliam Hill – 5pts Win

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9.35 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Fillies’ Grade 1)

You can’t fault Wedding Toast – she is the clear and fair favourite to land the Distaff. Two Grade 1’s on the bounce, both in utterly impressive fashion. Only question is: can she bring her top game to Keeneland? She finished 4th in her only start at this track last year and has a clear preference for Belmont.

What are the dangers? Got Lucky has to be one. The dramatic winner of the Grade 1 Spinster won’t mind a poor draw as he usually comes from behind. He’ll need a lot of luck though if he wants to do it again here, this time in an even deeper field.

Classy Sheer Drama has got a poor draw, which could be detrimental to her chances. She won two Grade 1’s this year and clearly has to enter calculations. But with the track an unknown, and the draw against her, others may make more appeal.

The pick of the three year old’s is clearly I’m A Chatterbox. I’m a big fan of her I have to admit. She is gutsy, honest filly, but one who poses tons of talent. She usually travelles well thanks to her ability of an outstanding cruising speed and once in front doesn’t let go.

She won the Grade 1 Cotillion when last seen after finishing second twice as well as third in her last three starts the top level – though if not for a crazy demotion in the American Oaks, she would have two Grade 1’s victories to her name now.

I’m A Chatterbox has been on the go for a while now, and that is a concern. So is the draw. From box one it’s never easy but she showed plenty of early pace in the past so I’m hopeful she can get out of this easily. If she has still something in the tank then it’s hard to see her not being involved when it really matters here, given that she has won at Keeneland before.

I’m A Chatterbox @ 8/1 Paddy Power

Global Racing

Big Race Preview: Canadian International

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Second Step

No surprise to see the Europeans dominating the betting for Canada’s major Group 1 on turf. Sir Michael Stoute brings over fast ground loving Cannock Chase who seems to hit top form at the right time of the year. He’ll love this track, fast ground and the trip plus first time Lasix administered will give him the edge – he’s the right favourite….

….. but at the same time a very skinny price given thathe hasn’t fulfilled the promise this season yet. While in good form at the moment, no doubt, it is a big step up from winning at Listed race to go on to win at the highest level. While I have him down as the likeliest winner nonetheless, I can’t trust him betting wise.

On ratings and form Luca Cumani’s Second Step is the biggest danger, if not the horse to beat. A Group 1 winner in Germany this season, he found the Ledger trip in Ireland a bit too far subsequently but should be more home in this race today. Questions marks arise over his racing style. He’s a hold-up horse and it can be difficult to come from the back the field here, particularly on fast ground. No Lasix is a disadvantage too.

Sheikhzayedroad has won a Grade 1 at this venue last season. From a good draw he can’t be discounted today either, though he hasn’t shown anything this year to believe he is in the same sort of form. He’s no price to be overly excited about either.

What’s the home opposition like? Modest. And that puts everything said about the Europeans into context. Whether they have the right form on European standards does matter little, given that most US rivals in this field aren’t quite up to standard here.

Although two contenders stand out: that is formerly Australia trained Habibi. He made some big progress in recent weeks, landing a Stakes race here at Woodbine in August and following up with a big runner-up effort in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer Turf Stakes. He came from the back off the field that day and with a slightly clearer run my have finished even closer than the final 1/2 lengths margin behind Interpol.

This Interpol is here today too, and in my mind is by far the most intriguing contender, even more so given his rather enormous price tag. He’s a late bloomer but really has hit the ground running in recent months. He caused a huge upset in the Grade 2 Sky Classic over 10f here at Woodbine, but proved this wasn’t a fluke when following up with a gutsy win in the Northern Dancer.

This four year old English Channel colt looks a very genuine, tough sort, who battles hart once in front. He always held the charge of Habibi last month, despite being in front for the whole long Woodbine home stretch. He usually races more up with the pace, which should be an advantage today on fast ground. Question mark is whether he can overcome his wider than ideal draw.

If he can, and the past has proven he has gate speed, he’ll be right up there when it matters. Whether he is good enough against the Europeans remains to be seen. But he’s a huge price and by no means deserves to be four times the price of favourite Cannock Chase.

Interpol @ 12/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Arc Review: Golden Horn spoils the party

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Golden Horn

That’s not the result we all wanted. Record bidding wonder mare Treve beaten. A rather disappointing fourth place – it ends the career of the two-times Arc champion on a slightly sour note – given the immense hype in the build-up to the race. Her scintillating turn of foot – not there. Instead she looked a tricky ride and Thierry Jarnet never comfortable.

The French jockey has been slated in some corners for this ride on Sunday afternoon. Rightly so, to an extend at least. He wasn’t aware of the pace scenario and the fact that the quick ground can make all the difference to bring back classy contenders who are up with the speed.

On the other hand he rode Treve exactly the same way as he did when she was so utterly impressive in the 2013 Arc. With the difference that this time she didn’t make ground on the outside in the same impressive way as she did back then. She looked a tricky ride for Jarnet in the closing stages too. He could never get her organised for a big finish.

Maybe she peaked a couple of weeks too early? Remember her stunning performance in the Prix Vermeille weeks before. Maybe it was the ground though. On the quick side of good, which seemed to inconvenience her in the past, seemingly didn’t suit on Sunday yet again.

But: she remains a two time Arc winner. A fantastic mare, one we’ll remember for a long time. An all-time great? Who knows. Let’s put away with this rubbish of comparing horses from different generations with the purpose to establish who is great and who isn’t. Treve has been a brilliant race horse. That is what matters and that is the way we shall remember her.

What a brilliant ride by Frankie, wasn’t it? He may not be quite as strong in the saddle as he used to be 15 years ago, but his brain works as well as ever. It was pure genius to mitigate the obvious disadvantages of Golden Horn’s wide draw; moving forward right away, on the far outside of the field. He avoided any hassle, kept the colt relaxed, got right to the top of the field without any problems and only seconds after the race started Golden Horn was suddenly in the best possible position.

The fast ground clearly helped him to float over the grass easily and effortless. The pace was good, kept him at ease, interested, but wasn’t too quick either. We know Golden Horn stays, and after the first quarter of the race I said to myself: he’ll be hard to peg back once he kicks on in the home straight. That’s exactly what happened.

The conditions clearly helped Golden Horn but it also helps if you’re the best horse in the race, I guess.

Credit where credit is due: John Gosden has done a phenomenal job with Golden Horn. He kept him well and fit throughout the season, campaigned him bravely and didn’t duck away from challenges. Now a Derby, Eclipse, Irish Champion Stakes and Arc winner – Golden Horn deserves the tag of a superstar. Next stop Breeders Cup?

Global Racing

Sunday Selections: Queen’s Jewel Ready To Bounce Back!

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1.35 Longchamp: Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) 

I stick to Herald The Dawn – was keen on him in the National Stakes when the ground turned soft though, which is not ideal. He finished a decent second behind classy Air Force Blue nonetheless. To an extend he followed up on his gutsy Futurity Stakes success, where he overcame softish conditions.

But the full-brother to Dawn Approach is a top of the ground horse as Jim Bolger pointed out, so today’s conditions at Longchamp do very much favour him. If he is as classy as his trainer says he is, he’ll be a big runner. With the benefit of the doubt, I give him this chance here.

Herald The Dawn @ 9/2 Betfred – 5pts Win

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2.10 Longchamp: Prix de l’Opera (Group 1) 

Queen’s Jewel was a very short favourite to land the Diane earlier this year. She seemingly had problems that day, though, reportedly bleeding, that you can easily forgive her the poor showing there. The filly is much better judged on her utterly impressive display in the Saint-Alary, when she overcame greenness as well as a wide passage.

The Freddy Head inmate looked special that day, which was the reason for her short odds in the French Oaks. Her break since then may be a blessing in disguise, given that she arrives as a fresh horse here. Still lightly raced, you would assume there is more to come from here.

Queen’s Jewel @ 13/2 VC – 5pts Win

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3.45 Tipperary: Istabraq Hurdle (Grade 2)

This should be a battle between the two Tony Martin inmates Thomas Edison and Ted Vale. The latter one finished an excellent third in the Galway hurdle, while having been caught a bit too far off the pace and in slight in-running trouble at a crucial time turning for home. He travelled strongly, though, coming with a big challenge jumping the last, when his stable mate Thomas Edision, equally looking to win the race, fell and hampered Ted Vale.

On that form, both horses are closely matched, although Thomas Edision stands better in the weights today, and potentially has a bit more room for improvement, while we basically know what Ted Vale is. However given the discrepancy in price, it is easy for me to go with Ted Vale here.

Ted Vale @ 3/1 Bet365 – 10pts Win

Global Racing

ARC Preview: All to lose for Treve…?

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Treve bids for a historic third Arc – yes, that’s a third one….. on the bounce! But you probably know that already. Anyway; she’s going to win? Possibly. The wonder mare is hard to oppose. Her form stands up to all scrutiny. She was utterly impressive in her prep. She has a fair draw. Only in-running trouble can spoil the party. Or the ground? Maybe. It’s slightly quicker than ideal for her.

So, what to make of the race? Treve is going to win if all goes to plan. However every horse has only a certain chance by percentage after all and with the favourite over-bet, there is value elsewhere to find.

Tapestry: A super filly. Now four years old, she returned from an almost year long absence last month at the Curragh where she finished an excellent runner-up behind smart Ribbons in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes. She was beaten for speed but fought gamely. She’ll be better over the 1m 4f Arc trip.

The Ballydoyle filly was second in last years Irish Oaks but made no mistakes when lowering the colours of supper filly Taghrooda in the Yorkshire Oaks. A long, hard season was telling, though, when she finished down the field in the 2014 Arc.

I expect her to improve big time for her comeback run, which in itself was a strong performance. But fitness wise she’ll be better today, and she’ll certainty enjoy the sound surface- the good draw is a bonus. Tapestry is a smart, genuine filly, not the likeliest winner, of course, but has plenty of good things on her side, so at 40/1 I have to say she is more likely to outrun her price tag than not.

Erupt: A three year old colt with strong course and distance form; he is the reigning champ of the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris….. and you get 25’s? WOW! I guess he was an even bigger price earlier this week, nonetheless, this us huge, considering that this price tag is seemingly based on a poor showing in the Prix Niel.

Okay, he was easily beaten by New Bay that day, but the ground was very soft. It’s a different scenario today. The good ground will surely make all the difference to Erupt’s performance and with a perfect draw in 4 he’s very likely to find himself in an excellent position when the field turns for home.

Once he hits top gear, he can be difficult to peg back. He may not have shown his absolute best yet, either. There is a possibility for him improving, again. That says I’m pretty confident to see him finish at least in the top five.

What else? Well, Golden Horn, of course! The Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner is an intriguing contender. Personally I’m worried about the draw. He’ll have to be extra special to overcome it and to beat Treve.

French Derby winner New Bay is touted to be the biggest danger for Treve. But is he? The fast ground is a clear question mark in my eyes. He has a super draw, though. I do look forward to see whether he can translate his excellent form and talent to this different surface. No excuses being drawn in five, that’s for sure. But honestly, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Summery: Treve will win. I want to see her doing it. Make history, love. I don’t think the ground is too much of an inconvenience. She’ll be fine. If she gets a clear passage, she’s pulverizing this field. If not, well, then I hope quite selfishly, one of my two fancies can sneak in.

Erupt @ 25/1 Betfred – 5pts Win 
Tapestry @ 40/1 Racebets – 5pts Win

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Keeneland: Europeans have a strong hand

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9.35 Keeneland: First Lady Stakes (Grade 1)

Soft ground makes this quite an unpredictable race but potentially the Europeans are best suited. Aiden O’Brien’s filly Easter is well fancied but I prefer stable mate Outstanding at double the price. When last seen she finished a fine 3rd in a Group 3 behind Irish Oaks runner-up Jack Naylor and Easter when.

She has won on soft ground in the past, so she’ll handle the conditions and with the slow ground probably won’t mind the drop to 1m. A full-sister to Magician, she is obviously well bred, and with lasix used on her again – as when she was a fine 3rd in the Belmont Oaks earlier the year – she could be well able to leave this years form behind.

Outstanding @ 6/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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10.45 Keeneland: Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (Grade 1)

Two horses I have to put up for this race: European raider Kelinni has hardly the credentials to land a Group 1, but with first time lasix, slow ground and top draw, he should be extremely competitive in a race that lacks star quality. He stays much further than the mile trip, but won a 7f Handicap in Ireland when the last time seen, making all that day. Same tactics will be useful here.

The Pizza Man looks underestimated here. He drops in trip, and that may not quite suit, though the slow ground should help as he has a good record in softish conditions. He won the Arlington Million last month, his third success this year. He’s a tough, genuine type. Exactly what you want here.

The Pizza Man @ 10/1 VC – 5pts Win
Kelinni @ 12/1 VC – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Sea Calisi a major threat for Treve

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3.10 Longchamp: Prix Vermeille (Group 1), 1m 4f

Back to back Arc winning mare Treve is back and she’s expected to win on her return in preparation for her bid to glory in October. She’s all class and the should win this if things go normal, as everything works in her favour – even the soft going, which she enjoys.

However I simply can’t let a filly go which I was desperately waiting to see again: Sea Calisi. Still lightly raced and improving all the time, this will only be her sixth start. She was progressive throughout the year, won a French Group 2 and went on to finish a mightily unlucky third in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks, where she travelled in rear, while the pace was slow and it was a big advantage to be up with it.

Winner, second and fourth where all prominent or making it, while Sea Calisi travelled strongly, but had a tough task to come from behind when she also didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs. She produced a strong change of gear on rain softened ground nonetheless, given the impression there is more to come.

It’s tough ground at Longchamp today and that is a slight concern as she has never raced on softer than good to soft before. However she has an abundance of stamina in her pedigree and plenty of soft ground form on her dam side.

I believe this filly can give Treve a real run for the money, if she copes with the conditions. She may can capitalize on her fitness advantage, but whatever happens, shouldn’t be far away.

Sea Calisi @ 23/1 Betfair – 5pts Win