All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
Royal Ascot

Preview: Royal Ascot – Coventry Stakes

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Round Two

Jim Bolger’s Round Two (photo) was utterly impressive when beating a smart Ballyoyle prospect at the Curragh recently. The step up to 6f can only be in his favour here, so he’s red hot favourite for all the right reasons. Which doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a price to invest in. Slight question marks over the fast ground have to be put to bed before I’d be prepared to dig into 9/4 in a race where so many others make plenty of appeal too.

Wesley Ward has been successful with his printers at Royal Ascot in recent years – can he do it again? He brings over another speedball – Finnegan was only beaten on his debut run, though on Dirt, but didn’t make a mistake second time out, when switched to turf. He’s a really good looking individual with loads of speed. If he can stay the extra furlong he’ll be a big runner.

Aiden O’Brien enrolss only one runner in the Coventry: War Front son Air Force Blue. He got off the mark on debut at the Curragh, despite being green particularly at the start of the race. But he showed plenty of pace and travelled like a dream. He got a bit tired in the end but held on. Clearly a smart individual who should relish the fast ground, he’s a major contender, given that this form works out extremely well.

Buratino is unbeaten over six furlongs in two starts. He won a Listed contest on Derby day in tremendous style. He’ll absolutely love the fast ground ad must be taken very serious. War Department was a fine debut winner at Leicester and can improve. William Haggas’s charge ran to a Timeform rating of 100+ first time out, so is clearly a smart individual.

There are many more interesting colts in the line-up. First Selection is a bigger price to take into consideration. Richard Hannon’s pair of Eltezam and Age Of Empire can’t be underestimated either. Maccus for Brian Meehan looked good at Windsor on debut.

Verdict: There isn’t much form available and it is always difficult to accurately assess the potential each and every individual in this race has. That says, as mentioned before, I’m inclined to take on the favourite, for price and ground reasons. While the US runner might be found out for stamina over the stiff Ascot finish.

But I really like Aiden O’Brien’s Air Force Blue and it looks significant that there is seemingly confidence behind this horse as that is signalled by the fact that Ballydoyle has only this one runner in the field, while theoretically they’d have a whole armada of two year old colts good enough to run. This son of War Front was impressive on debut and looks a tick overpriced here I feel.

Air Force Blue @ 8/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Royal Ascot

Preview: Royal Ascot – Ascot Stakes

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DSC_0752

Big field, long distance – it’s the Ascot Stakes over the marathon trip of 2 miles and 4 furlongs! Despite 20 runners in the line-up we have one clear favourite. David Simcock’s Ray Ward is well fancied to land the odds. It’s easy to see why. He acts on fast ground, stays the trip and and is potentially on a good mark. His prep run over sharp 10f couldn’t have gone any better either. Clearly, there’s plenty to like about Ray Ward.

Generally lightly raced Fun Mac may join Ray Ward at the head of the market come the start of the race. He was an ultra impressive winner on his seasonal reappearance. An 11 lengths winner in a class 3 Handicap – you don’t see that too often. Fun Mac goes on any kind of ground and has clearly potential for further improvement. A 14lb hike in the mark makes life tougher though and he’s untested over marathon trips.

Veteran Clondaw Warrior has been in fine form over hurdles in recent weeks. He won the November Handicap at Leopardstown last year, so is a good stayer on the flat as well as he is good over the sticks. Lightly raced Lycidas won a good 2m Handicap when last seen. There is more to come from him.

Irish raider Digeanta has the benefit of feather weight. He just made the cut as an 88 rated individual but has some good staying performances to his name. He wasn’t disgraced on his seasonal reappearance and could go well.

Godolphin’s Statutory is an improving stayer and ground independent. Main concern is the lack of a recent run as well as his high handicap mark. Another lightly raced sort is Asbury Boss. He shaped with promise in 2m contests in his last two starts. On only his third Handicap start, he is one to like.

Experienced stayer Broxbourne was in good form over jumps this season. He returns to the flat and is on a handy mark, only 1lb above his last win.

Top weight Hurricane Higgins will have a tough task off 9st 10lb but has been in fine form this year and is a classy stayer on his day. He won a Novice Hurdle last month and a good staying race on the Lingfield All-Weather in February after a long break. He proved to stay this sort of marathon trip in the past and acts on fast ground. He’s one who relishes these kind of tests with a big field where he can stay on from the back passing as many horses as he likes.

Boite has been third in the Group 3 Queen’s Vase two years ago, so has excellent Royal Ascot form. He couldn’t quite follow on from there but seems to find something back of his old best this year – he hasn’t been out of the money in four starts. Johnny Murtagh’s Hardstone has been prolific on the All-Weather and coped well with the step up in trip at Leopardstown earlier this month. More is required here, though.

Big Thunder would be well handicapped if he can stay the distance. Shwaiman is on an interesting mark if he can bring his recent Hurdle form now to the flat.

Verdict: A wide open renewal of the Ascot Stakes. Many horses seem to come right for the big race and you could easily make a serious case for half the field. I’m in the hunt for for a bit of value, though and my initial feeling has only hardened: Hurricane Higgins is overpriced.

Yes, he has quite a big task assigned as top weight, but horses with big weights usually do well here. HH finds ideal conditions at Ascot, is sure to stay, sure to be in good form, happy on the ground and usually likes these type of races. He is still as good as ever as he proved when winning first time out off a near three year long break at Lingfield earlier this year.

Hurricance Higgins @ 16/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Royal Ascot

All About Royal Ascot

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Royal Ascot – there is no other place in the world where you’ll get a better five consecutive days of (flat) racing! This week is a week of celebration; celebrating out wonderful sport.

The best horses from all over the globe competing at the beautiful venue that is Ascot Racecourse. It’s a week I look forward to the whole year. Now it’s finally upon us!

Royal Ascot – Thursday:

Gold Cup, 2m 4f > Read Preview

Day III Overview > Thursday Selections

Royal Ascot – Wednesday:

Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, 1m 2f > Read Comprehensive Preview

Day II Complete Overview > Wednesday Selections 

Royal Ascot – Tuesday:

2.30: Queen Anne Stakes, 1 mile > Read Preview

3.05: Coventry Stakes, 6 furlongs > Read Preview

3.40: King’s Stand Stakes, 5 furlongs > Read Preview

4.20: St. James’s Palace Stakes, 1 mile > Read Preview

5.00: Ascot Stakes, 2 miles 4 furlongs > Read Preview

5.35; Windsor Castle Stakes, 5 furlongs > Read Preview

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Royal Ascot

Preview: Royal Ascot – King’s Stand Stakes

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Richard Hughes

Can Sole Power make it a hat-trick in the King’s Stand? That’s the all important question. History is against him and of course Eddie Lynam’s charge isn’t getting any younger. But Sole Power showed no signs of ageing when landing the big sprint on Dubai World Cup night earlier this year. Give him five furlongs and quick ground and he’s still capable of producing his trademark turn of foot!

The ground is going to be on the fast side on Tuesday – only a sudden monsoon could change that. A rattling pace is also ensured, with plenty of front-runners in the field – conveniently  drawn in close proximity of Sole Power – which means, if the field splits into two groups, he is likely to be in the right one.

Progressive Muthmir appears to be the biggest danger on paper. He won a good Group 2 sprint in France recently. Muthmir seems a sort likely to improve with time and age and for that reason is one to take very seriously here.

The Australians send over experienced mare Shamal Wind. She is a seasoned runner and undoubtedly a good sprinter in her own country, but It took here a very long time to win on the highest level. It’s probably fair to assume she is not quite Australia’s sprint elite, though she won the Grade 1 Oakleigh Plate when last seen.

Her nation has the reputation for developing the best sprinters in the world, and there is surely some merit to. That says not every Aussie sprinter coming over to Europe is automatically better than the domestic opposition.

Last years Haydock Sprint Cup winner G Force can’t be underestimated, although he seems better over six furlongs. The ground has gone against Mecca’s Angel, otherwise she would be very well fancied for a big run.

From the bigger prices I’d call out Goldream and last years runner-up Stepper Point. They could outrun their price tag. It’ll be interesting to see whether recent Temple Stakes winner Pearl Secret can follow-up with another big performance or if it was only a fluke.

Verdict: To be perfectly honest I find it very hard to oppose Sole Power. His record speaks volumes, he finds the right conditions here and has the pace around him. He’s still capable of winning the big races as he proved at Meydan and appears to be a better price than I would have expected.

Sole Power @ 7/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Royal Ascot

Preview: Royal Ascot – Queen Anne Stakes

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Able Friend - Photo: www.summerhill.co.za
Able Friend – Photo: http://www.summerhill.co.za

Royal Ascot is looming large – my favourite race meeting! It kicks off with the Queen Anne Stakes – my favourite race in the world! Races over one mile always fascinated me. It’s no surprise – my all-time hero is a miler: the almighty Paco Boy. He himself won the Queen Anne back in 2009 in breathtaking style; Richard Hughes sitting off the pace, Paco hard held on the the bridle, produced a devastating turn of foot when finally unleashed. Good, old memories….

The 2015 renewal shapes as a race for the ages. It reminds me a bit of 2010, when wonder mare Goldikova got the better of Paco Boy in a dramatic finish. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a similarly tight result this time again. Five years later Goldikova’s trainer Freddy Head has another chance to win the big one – this time with Solow, a five year old gelding.

Solow, unbeaten in his last six starts, couldn’t be in better form. He won the Dubai Turf and Prix D’ispahan this year, both times in sensational fashion. It took him a while to win his first Group 1, but he improved dramatically over the last number of month to develop rapidly into a global superstar.

Currently trading 6/4, he is well fancied to land the odds in the Queen Anne. Is he a good thing? He probably is. Although if you want to to find some negative aspects you don’t need to dig too deep.

It’s the very nature of the race which may or rather may not quite suit him. The mile trip on fast ground against top level opposition is a new test for Solow. His recent top performances came over slightly further and he has never raced on anything faster than good. That does not have to be a problem,  but my suspicion is he’ll need certainly a quick pace which ensures the emphasis is more on stamina than on raw speed in order to be seen to full effect here.

Whether we get a good pace or not is hard to say. The race could well turn into a tactical affair. This would potentially count against Solow. Not because he hasn’t a turn of foot or the class, but because he meets a rival who is very likely to possess even more speed, a rival who’s likely to enjoy exactly those kind of conditions: Able Friend.

The joint leader in the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings (on turf), he has bagged four Group 1’s in his unbeaten run of six. He’s thought to be the best miler in the world at the moment – and it is easy to see why: Regular jockey Joao Moreira, merely a passenger on most occasions, usually can start to salute the crowd at Sha Tin from half a furlong out, so authoritative is the manner of Able Friend’s victories.

Arguably his most impressive success came in the Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup this January this year, when beating a classy field hard on the bridle, despite meeting some in-running trouble.

Able Friend will encounter unusual conditions at Ascot. Not so much the ground, which will suit perfectly – but a straight, stiff mile is completely alien to him. How is he going to cope with it? That’s the big question. He probably won’t mind whatever pace they go. They often go a good clip in Hong Kong’s top class races. He loves to come from the back in a strongly run race, but equally is able to unleash a deadly turn of foot if they crawl.

If Joao Moreira is able to settle the big horse early on and conserve energy for when it really matters, I feel Able Friend could  have too much speed for Solow. Though, this is not a match-race. On can’t rule out recent Lockinge Stakes winner Night Of Thunder.

The 2014 Guineas heroine, found it subsequently tough to win last season, but bounced back to his best when landing the Lockinge Stakes in dramatic fashion. This represents good form, but might not be good enough to beat the big guns. Stable mate Toormore also bounced back to form in the Lockinge. He stayed on to finish second just beaten by a neck that day.

Andre Fabre’s mare Esoterique is a Group 1 winner in France. Quick ground counts against her, so does the overall look of her form. The trio Here Comes When, Cougar Mountain and Glory Awaits would need to find some dramatic improvement to trouble the better fancied horses in this field.

Verdict: This is a fantastic renewal – we’ll going to see two true superstars going head to head. No doubt, the Queen Anne Stakes evolves around the French Solow and Hong Kong’s Able Friend. It’s a duel to savour!

That says Night Of Thunder is a really good horse in his very own right and I could see him adopting positive tactics which might be an advantage in a potentially tactical affair – nonetheless, he lacks the class of the other two. To see anyone else involved would be a shock.

I already hinted that I have a slight preference for Able Friend in the likely fast conditions over a mile – as long as he is able to cope with the Ascot straight mile. But certainly there isn’t much between him and Solow. I have them both in and around 7/4 but the betting has Solow as the clear favourite. So it’s rather easy for me to select Able Friend since his price looks a bit over the top.

Able Friend @ 9/4 Paddy Power – 10pts Win

Global Racing

Outback Traveller Deserves Another Chance

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Cork Racecourse

Mixed Saturday from a betting perspective. 1 winner with Ogbourne Downs, though by the smallest of margins. My initial feeling right after the race was: It’s lost. But the photo proved “decisive”. OD stuck his nose out when it mattered. What a relieve! Otherwise it would have been a tough day because Gabrial and Jakob Black both ran superb but only managed to finish 2nd. Lily’s Prince and Snow Cloud never gave me a run for my money. So, after all, a small profit.

Before I move on to Sunday: Let’s briefly mention the performance of the day: Twilight Son at York today. He followed up with another massively impressive display and his way is clearly paved towards Group racing from now on. No surprise, though. As I felt already after his win on 2000 Guineas day that’s he a Group horse in the making.

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4.00 Salisbury: Cathedral Stakes (Listed), 6f

I can see why Absolutely So is market leader in this Listed contest, given his recent third place in a competitive Group 3. That says the likely very fast ground does definitely count against him. He has zero form in these kind of conditions.

Three year old Markaz has, though. However after nine career starts he still has only a maiden win to his name, though he performed with credit in most races, more often than not against classy opposition. This here is probably easier, and conditions will suit. But as a 3yo, despite weight for age, It’s a tough assignment.

A wind op helped Ruwaiyan to find back to form when he won a good Handicap at Goodwood in May. A subsequent poor effort in Listed company at Windsor may be forgiven and he is certainly one of the likelier sorts in this race.

Minalisa was a long way beaten in the very same race but probably needed the run. She is best judged on her Listed win at Naas in fast conditions last year. She is a definite contender if back on song.

Personally I’m most fascinated by Outback Traveller. He was very progressive as a juvenile as well as three year old. His Ascot win in October was nothing short of sensational. Admittedly he doesn’t seem to have grown over the winter but seem to have retained allot of his ability as he proved at Kempton on his seasonal debut when just beaten in a photo as to top weight by the very well handicapped Speculative Bid.

Under an even bigger weight he struggled the next time at Ascot when travelling to close to a suicidal pace, while Speculative Bid won the race, clearly franking the Kempton form. Outback Traveller drops back to 6f now which I feel suits this speedy sort, so should the quick ground. I’m inclined to give him another chance and find out once for all if he’s equally as good a four year old as he was in the last two seasons.

Outback Traveller @ 7/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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4.40 Cork: Cork Derby (Premier Handicap), 1m 4f

An unsettled betting market and a wrong favourite – there aren’t many horses who make appeal in the Cork Derby. That is because fast conditions won’t suit many. Unsinkable appears to be Ger Lyons’s number one in this race, but stable mate Unrequited could likely be better suited by this test.

He clearly acts on fast ground and has the trip well within his range. He won a Handicap in emphatic fashion on his seasonal reappearance, effectively on the the bridle. He stepped up to 2m subsequently and travelled like the winner at the Curragh three weeks, though failed to stay eventually. He could still be well handicapped is my feeling and this race should suit down to the grounds.

I nominate a second selection for this race as I can’t split the two: Break My Mind for the in-form yard of Eddie Lynam. The filly is likely to be ready for her seasonal reappearance, and if that’s the case then she’s a big runner. It took her five races to get off the mark last year but she won a 12f maiden on fast ground at Fairyhouse in nice fashion back in September. Soft ground and drop in trip didn’t quite suit the next time but she still finished third when on her final start in 2014. But conditions will suit here at Cork and a mark off 82 seems more than fair.

Break My Mind @ 9/1 – William Hill 5pts Win
Unrequited @ 9/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Saturday’s Racing: On The Hunt For Winners

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.20 Sandown: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

Whether some of the more lightly raced individuals can improve to a level that’ll see them going close is debatable, but the very much in-form Jacob Black is sure to have a prime chance once again.

The four year old is getting better with every race, and after getting close in a hot Newmarket Handicap on his seasonal debut, he made all to win here at Sandown a fortnight ago. The winning margin was tight in the end but Jacob Black got a bit lonely in front inside the final furlong and was actually eased down towards the end. He had still a bit in hand.

The Handicapper has given him a chance to prove his class and raised his mark by only 3lb. He may not be able to dictate this bigger field as he did the last time, but he has a good draw and should be in an ideal position when it matters.

Jacob Black @ 6/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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2.45 Navan: Handicap (60-95), 6f

Quick ground is a rarity in Ireland so there isn’t too much fast ground form on offer in this field. However Lily’s Prince is sure to appreciate the underfoot conditions. She has been it pretty good form in recent weeks. A fine success at Cork, followed up with a sixth place in a hot Tipperary sprint.

On paper this last performance doesn’t look inspiring, but the drop to 5f wasn’t suitable and she lost something at the start. She appeared dangerous briefly from 2f out but was found out for speed eventually. This slightly longer trip is what she needs, and with conditions to suit, she may have still a bit to offer from her current mark in an open enough affair.

Lily’s Prince @ 10/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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3.10 York: Ganton Stakes (Listed)

The race evolves around the question whether Wannabe Yours is 100% today and if he’s improved from three to four. Last years form is outstanding and gives him a leading chance no doubt. 3/1 looks tempting I admit, but with these question marks flying around I do opt for the form horse at twice the price.

That’s Lincoln winner Gabrial. Conditions come just right for him today with a bit of rain getting into the ground and his recent 4th in Listed Handicap over course and distance gives him a big chance. That day as top weight he had a really tough task assigned and was just beaten in the closing stages by progressive horses with less weight.

The form works out really well, though and Gabrial should find this here actually a bit easier, given he’s on level weights with his rivals. He is holding his form well and is likely to run his race today – which may be good enough to win.

Gabrial @ 7/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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5.25 Chester: Class 3 Handicap, 5f

I agree with the betting here: Bowson Fred is a very worthy favourite and has plenty in favour. Good draw, form and conditions. But the fact that he has gone close in all his recent starts without winning suggest he is vulnerable nonetheless.

In contrast if you can forgive Snow Cloud his recent poor showing, you’ll see a progressive, talented and improved filly. Ripon’s 6f in softish conditions were just not what she wanted but she showed true class on her seasonal debut at Redcar in quick conditions over 5f.

Travelling strongly, and producing a nice turn of foot, she looked to have loads in hand. Judged on that performance she might be still better than her current mark off 81, although this is a tougher race and Chester from draw five is something of an unknown experience to her. If she handles it, she is sure to be a big runner.

Snow Cloud @ 7/1 Coral – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Ogbourne Downs fancied to defend his crown

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Naas

3.50 Bath: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Quick conditions at Bath, seems to suit most in this small but competitive field. You can see why Hannington is well fancied. Won well lto and only 3lb up seems lenient. A good 7lb claimer on board gives him every chance to run big, given more is likely to come from this lightly raced gelding. This is a much tougher race today, though, against good opposition. So not it’s worth to look for alternatives to take the short priced favourite on.

Drop in trip should suit top weight Stosur. He should run well but isn’t particularly well weighted, given his record. Mister Musicmaster is in top form this year and may have his best ever chance to achieve a career best. Starlit Cantata in contrast may not enjoy the drop in trip, despite good recent form.

Most interesting runner is Ogbourne Downs in my eyes. He won this very same race last year and won again last season at Kempton of his current mark. He started 2015 in very hot Handicaps and this here represents a much easier task. Down to his last winning mark, with a 7lb claimer on board, he should feature prominently and looks overpriced.

Ogbourne Downs @ 5/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Newbury Preview: Ballymacoll Stud Stakes

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Newbury

Bit of a shocker yesterday – neither Bartholomew Fair nor Tamasha could land a blow and finished down the field. While Tamasha looked dangerous for a moment and may needed simply the run, Bartholomew Fair was very keen throughout and didn’t run any sort of a race.

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3.25 Newbury: Ballymacoll Stud Stakes (Fillies’ Listed)

It’s easy to see why Encore L’amour is favourite to land this Listed event. Her creditable runner-up effort behind subsequent Oaks third Lady Of Dubai is the best form on offer. She may well improve from the run and you have to think this looks an ideal opportunity to score for her.

I feel she is opposable on the basis of her short price, though. As she was beaten at Goodwood by quite a margin nonetheless and it’s not unlikely that something else in this race can improve in a way to be a real thread.

I like lightly raced Jasmine Blue. She is better than the bare form of her last run at Newbury. Speedy Boarding is another unexposed sort with potential of dramatic improvement.

However I feel the Irish raider Hot Sauce is overpriced. John Murphy’s inmate is a good looking, big and scopey filly who’s certainly progressive. She won a hot Gowran Park maiden on quick ground – this form works out pretty well. She stepped up into Handicap company and ran a huge race in a competitive field at the Curragh last month. Just beaten in the dying strides in a wild finish by an equally progressive sort who went on to win again subsequently.

She deserves a go at Listed Level and with more improvement to come from here, she must be a major player today, given conditions are going to suit her down to the grounds.

Hot Sauce @11/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Lightly Raced Tamasha Can Improve Big Time

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DSC_1171

5.10 Haydock: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f

Satellite wasn’t too far beaten in a very tough Handicap at York the last time. He didn’t have the run of the race and can come on for it. Back up in trip, down in grade and dropped 2 pounds he’s a key contender today. That says he’s to raise his game too, given that his only win was a maiden success over a year ago and since then he hasn’t finished in the money.

Revitalized Chancery goes back to 12f and has already shown some fine form this season. He needs to be back to his very best to win off his current mark and I’m not sure if he is really up to it these days. English Summer is on a workable mark without giving the impression to be overly well handicapped. Chance on best form, but not shown anything this year so far.

The race will inevitably evolve around lightly raced filly Tamasha. She was very impressive winning a maiden at Salisbury last year and was clearly not disgraced in a hot Listed event on the Lingfield All-Weather subsequently, when she got a troubled trip due to a wide draw.

As a daughter of Sea The Stars she is likely to improve as a three year old and out of a Group 3 winning Sadler’s Wells mare she is sure to relish middle-distance trips. Race fitness and quick ground are questions marks, but if she can overcome them she is entitled to run a big race of a mark which could easily underestimate her true potential. At 4/1 I’m rather on her than against her in this field.

Tamasha @ 4/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win