All posts by Florian Christoph

Photographer & Runner - lives in the land of rain.
Ireland

Local Time deserves another chance

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3.45 Curragh: Kilboy Estate Stakes (Fillies’ Group 2), 1m 1f

Favourite Brooch ran inexplicably flat in the Pretty Polly Stakes, she is better than that, but has to concede an awful lot of weight here once again. That makes her vulnerable. Talmada’s recent runner-up effort behind subsequent Irish Oaks winner Covert Love sets a strong standard, but the slight drop in trip isn’t sure to suit.

Mutatis Mutandis could go close if she doesn’t miss the kick this time, while strong travelling sort Bocca Baciata will be much better suited by this test than when last seen at Royal Ascot. Raydara has to bounce back from a poor seasonal comeback run.

I’m intrigued by Godolphin’s Local Time. She looked smart at Meydan, won the UEA 1000 Guineas and Oaks earlier this year. She hasn’t been able to back these performances up since her return to Europe. But both times she competed in Group 1 class on quick ground, and the slight drop in class as well as an easier surface may help her to find back her best.

Saeed bin Suroor is adamant that she needs a bit of give in the going, that is the reason why they are coming over to Ireland. It has rained over night quite heavily which should clearly benefit Local Time’s cause. 9 furlongs could be an ideal trip too. I feel she deserves another chance and she could well able to outrun her price tag.

Local Time @ 20/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

Ireland

Preview: Irish Oaks

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5.50 Curragh: Irish Oaks (Group 1), 1m 4f

Ribblesdale Stakes winner Curvy sets a strong the standard in the Irish Oaks. She is progressive, has strong course form and couldn’t have done more to impress at Royal Ascot. But there are plenty of dangers in this field so it certainly won’t be a walk in the park for the 5/2 favourite.

Aiden O’Brien’s cavalry consists of “only” three runners, after Qualify pulled out. Munster Oaks winner Words is the most fancied one of the trio. Only two starts to date, she can improve again and is clearly poised for a big run. Stable mate Together Forever was well beaten in the Epsom Oaks. She was up with a strong pace, got hampered 2f out and tired subsequently. She deserves another chance.

So does Kissed By Angels. An impressive winner of a hot 1m Leopardstown maiden earlier this year, she was last seen at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas. After stumbling out off the gate, she probably made a bit too much early on, yet travelled quite strongly a most parts of the race – though didn’t find anything when it really mattered. Jockey booking is a big negative but the step up in trip should suit.

Jack Naylor wasn’t quite suited be run of the Epsom Oaks. She was a big eye-catcher in the Irish 1000 Guineas though and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her bounce back today. Jessica Harrington’s charge remains clearly with potential.

Three English raiders try their luck: James Fanshawe’s progressive Speedy Boarding faces arguably her toughest test. She is an intriguing contender, nonetheless. The same could be said about John Gosden’s Gretchen. She was thrown into deep water at Royal Ascot. On the back of a good maiden win, she run her heart out in the Ribblesdale Stake. Although caught wide in the home turn, she lost an awful lot of ground subsequently, She’ll have learned plenty on that day.

Hugo Palmers ships over Covert Love. This filly is still unbeaten in three starts this year and she may improve again as she steps up to 12f for the first time today.

Verdict: Intriguing contest. Curvy is a fair favourite but there is plenty of opposition in this race capable of taking her scalp. Together Forever with less aggressive tactics could be the main danger. But price wise I believe stable mate Kissed By Angels is massively overpriced. Still lightly raced, she travelled well in the Guineas and this new trip could see her in much better light.

Over the top is also the price on offer for Gretchen. She was green at Royal Ascot and didn’t have the run of the race. The galloping Curragh will suit down to the grounds and with natural progression she is a huge runner.

Gretchen @ 12/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win
Kissed By Angels @ 33/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Preview: Grand Prix De Paris

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After a bleak Sunday at Dundalk’s All-Weather, where non of my selection even went anywhere close enough to give me a run for my money, I have set sights firmly on France today – for a change of scenery. The French of course celebrate Bastille Day… let’s hope I can celebrate a winner instead!

6.25 Longchamp: Grand Prix De Paris (Group 1)

I can see the reason why many are keen on Balios after his impressive success at Royal Ascot. Not sure if the race is run to suit him, though, as he seems to need a quick pace and every inch of 12f trip in the King Edward.

Storm the Stars has been runner-up in Irish Derby and third in the English equivalent. He sets the standard, obviously, however may be found out for speed once again. He looks a stayer, and I can see him only winning a Group 1 over the Leger trip. He also had a tough season up to this point, and it might be a race that comes too soon.

For the French it is once more an Andre Fabre trained colt who is going to provide the key challenge. Ampere is unbeaten in two starts, already a Group 2 winner and clearly an exciting prospect. The better ground is a slight concern, as well as his form is nothing particularly special after all.

Silverware should find this trip stretching his stamina, while progressive Erupt is clearly one to take seriously. But it is Aiden O’Brien’s Archangel Raphael who is the most intriguing contender in this field.

He was one I was keen to see as a three year old. He made a belated comeback but couldn’t have done much more than winning his seasonal reappearance at Fairyhouse earlier this month. The runner-up has subsequently franked the form with a good victory at Dundalk.

Archangel Raphael was a good juvenile. A bit unlucky not to win on debut, when 2nd to a good winner. He was quite green that day as well as on his second career start – though then at Galway, he produced an impressive turn of foot to win in difficult circumstances.

Longchamp as a track should suit him perfectly and in a slowly run race he may be one of few who is happy to make all. Blinkers fitted for the first time doesn’t need to a negative. In fact he could be even sharper in the finish. This talented individual is clearly overpriced in my mind.

Archangel Raphael 12/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

Ireland

Escapism a massive price on Handicap Debut

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Postulation
Postulation

Yesterday afternoon at around 5pm I was pretty depressed…. but then came Dartmouth who got me out of the hole with his dominant success at Ascot. What started like a bleak day, ended in modest 10pts profit. Could have been better if not for hitting the post twice. Lightning Spear in particular was unlucky, as he ran into all sorts of trouble in the home straight.

3.45 Dundalk: Handicap (57-75), 7f

Good racing at Dundalk’s All-Weather today. The 7f handicap looks an intriguing contest. Favourite Ishebayorgrey has been a model of consistency and can race off the same mark as when he won a good 6f race at Leopardstown last month. Though he appears to be vulnerable over this trip; the additional furlong seems to stretch his stemina.

Some lightly raced and potentially well handicapped sorts can make their presence felt. Most interesting is Escapism on her handicap debut, however. The John Oxx charge has done not too badly in maiden races, most notably eleven days ago in a hot sprint. She travelled well but seemed to be out-sprinted in the closing stages.

She steps up to 7f now which should certainly suit on pedigree. Both sire and dam have won over this trip; in fact she is not badly bred at all. An opening mark of 66 is lenient in my eyes, given her most recent performance and the potential improvement to come over this trip. The All-Weather surface won’t be an issue either.

Escapism @ 7/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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4.15 Dundalk: Marshes Handicap, 5f

Ultra competitive race with plenty of pace – it should be fast and furious. You can’t discount anyone lightly here, but Ger Lyons’ Ardhoomey is particularly well fancied in the betting after a good performance in a hot Curragh Premier Handicap. He did well to finish 4th from the position he came from and gets help from the handicapper who drops him below a mark of 100 now: his wind problems in the past are a concern, though.

My Good Brother showed a return to form when an unlucky fourth at Fairyhouse. He is down to a handy mark and should go close. Lightly raced Urbestchance is interesting here, dropping in trip on her handicap debut. She is open to any amount of progress.

Old boy Russian Soul will have to overcome a wide draw in order to get to the front in a race where competition for the lead is likely to be fierce. The big weight is even more likely to stop him anyway. Prince Connoisseur hasn’t been any good this year so far but slipped down to a dangerous mark if back to his best.

I really do like Kimbay, who appears to be overpriced. She has been very progressive the last two seasons, and it didn’t stop this year as she got close on her seasonal reappearance and then took advantage of a drop to her prefered 5f trip at Tipperary. Forgive her last performance at the Curragh where she wasn’t in a good position.

She has been dropped 3lb for that and is now effectively only 4lb above her last winning mark. She could be still well in, particularly today where she is returning to Dundalk’s All-Weather. She is unbeaten in three starts over course and distance and should be a major player of her low weight here.

Kimbay @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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4.50 Dundalk: Conditions Race, 1m 1f

Only three runners, and with Xebec exposed as a mid-80 rated handicapper, this should be a match between Outspoken and Don Camillo.

Outspoken was a fair runner-up behind stable mate Archangel Raphael. He is very lightly raced and open to further improvement, the switch to the All-Weather may not be an inconvenience. Says the slight drop in trip is not sure to suit given how one-paced he looked as well as easily outpaced one the tempo of the race increased turning for home. He’s clearly no superstar.

Dermot Weld’s Don Camillo was utterly disappointing last week in a listed event at Roscommon. However the race itself was a strange one, so was the ground. He was eased in the closing stages and may be better judged on what he did before. He wasn’t disgraced in Group company at Royal Ascot, and I liked what he did on the Dundalk All-Weather before.

He won here a maiden in great fashion and travelled all over older & more experienced rivals in a Handicap off a mid-90 mark the next time. He was outstayed eventually but should have learned plenty.

He was thought to be good enough to warrant an entry for the US Triple Crown series earlier this year, though he didn’t take it up eventually. Nonetheless quite well bred, by a Breeders Cup Classic winner, Don Camillo is likely to relish this trip and the surface. With a visor fitted for the first time, he can be sharper in the closing stages now.

Don Camillo @ 11/4 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Preview – Lightning Spear has the class!

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Newmarket July Course

It has been rather quite this week for me personally…. there was brilliant racing on offer the last number of days at Newmarket, but I couldn’t been arsed. Life is busy, and some days off the horses can do the world of good sometimes. I feel fresh and rejuvenated in that sense at least. Let’s give it a proper go today – there is top class sport on offer!

2.45 Ascot: Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2), 1m

I’m prepared to take on favourite Arod. He’s clearly top class but the slight drop in trip is not sure to suite on lightning fast ground. He is a fair price, but nothing more.

In the same ownership, progressive Lightning Spear made giant strides this season. He followed up on an impressive display at Lingfield with an even more impressive performance at Salisbury last month. Bumped at the start, stuck in traffic until late, he stormed clear under 9st 10lb when finally in the clear. He’s a major player today.

The joker, if you wanna say so, is Bow Creek. Excellent last season, he was clearly not himself on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown earlier this year. If he can find back to his best he’s dangerous.

Lightning Spear @ 7/2 VC – 5pts Win

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2.35 Newmarket: Superlative Stakes (Group 2), 7f

Hard to look past Aiden O’Brien’s extremely well bred Air Vice Marshal. He was pretty green on his debut but came on a truckload the next time. Admittedly, the maiden he won at Gowran Park isn’t worth an awful lot but the way he did it was ultra impressive. He could have won by any distance. He is good looking, big and scopey and has the pedigree to do well as a juvenile

Main danger is William Haggas’s War Department. Forget his Ascot run, it just wasn’t to happen for him that day. He looked good on his debut though and should be competitive today. But on the prices, I feel the Irish raider is  overpriced and should be a full point shorter in my book

Air Vice Marshal @ 3/1 Coral – 10pts Win

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3.45 Newmarket: July Cup (Group 1), 6f

Two big prices against the two hot favourites: Due Diligence is one. I’m inclined to give him one last chance. At this time last year he had the world at his mercy, yet things didn’t go right from there on. Two disappointing efforts this year, a particularly dismal one at Royal Ascot – it might be that he has never recovered from his injury – but Aiden O’Brien wouldn’t bring him over if he wouldn’t think Due Diligence is in with a chance.

The other one I like is Danzeno. Rather lightly raced, he may still be able to pull out a bit more. He was unlucky at Newcastle last month following his excellent seasonal reappearance in the Temple Stakes. Trip, track and ground are sure to suit perfectly.

Danzeno @ 20/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win
Due Diligence @ 25/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

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4.55 Newmarket: Class 2 Nursery, 7f

Favourite Majdool was very impressive at Chelmsford over this trip, albeit it was a poor maiden. He was fair runner-up behind Beaverbrook before, however, so is clearly the one to beat today on that evidence. Spongy shares collateral form with him and has a chance on the weights today, but probably needs a bit further given the way he stayed on to win lto.

Mark Johnston has his juveniles in top form this season. Aleko is no exception. Off the mark in a 6f maiden in excellent style, he failed to follow up at Epsom, though. Might be wise to ignore that run as he missed the break and was never comfortable at the track throughout. The step up to 7f is sure to suit on pedigree, and this well bred individual should do better now in nurseries.

Aleko @ 4/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

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5.05 Ascot: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f

Space Age performance at Royal Ascot was freakish to a point, given his wide draw and the frenetic pace he set – yet it seemed it suited him to be in front alone. H deserves to be hot favourite today. He is up by 8lb but could be well able to defy this new mark.

But it’s Dartmouth who appears to be quite well handicapped, given he wasn’t disgraced in the very same race and can race off the same mark. He had a wide draw to overcome and had to travel three wide. throughout. Given the circumstances he ran a fine race. He is well bred, still lightly raced, and can do better today.

Dartmouth @ 8/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Merry Me Can Upset in Pipalong Stakes

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3.10 Pontefract: Pipalong Stakes (Fillies’ Listed), 1m

Favourite Temptress should be hard to beat given her brilliant run at Royal Ascot when she followed up on an ultra impressive performance on her seasonal debut. However her draw and running style are a slight negative at this track, so she might be vulnerable to someone who gets first run.

I feel this could be Merry Me. The filly seems on the upward with age. She left a poor season opener behind with a massive run in a Handicap at Epsom. She travelled strongly chasing the pace, didn’t seem to be impacted by a bit of a rough ride in the home straight and went clear inside the final furlong, just to get a bit tired or idle in the dying strides when eventual winner Gratzie came out of nowhere to get up on the line.

Merry Me didn’t have time to respond to this challenge and gave a good deal of weight away to the winner as well. The slight drop to 1m should suit perfectly today though as well as track and ground.

Merry Me @ 6/1 Coral – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Graasten can shock in German Derby

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4.10 Hamburg: Deutsches Derby (Group 1), 1m4f

Without Karpino and Quasillo the German Derby has lost its main attractions. Which makes it now quite an intriguing affair. Shimrano is a fair favourite nonetheless. He has the form in the book. His win in the Oppenheimer-Union-Rennen is the best trial form on offer. From a betting perspective he makes zero appeal though. 2/1 in a big field with many unkown quantities….

I’ll be going with a massive price – Graasten. He was well beaten behind Shimrano at Collogne, however didn’t quite get the run of the race in home straight and was staying one late. He clearly would appreciate an additional furlong and won’t mind the Derby trip at all.

Fitted with blinkers for the first time today, it may help this very raw and green colt to keep his focus better than he has  in done all of his career starts. He’s often sluggish at the start, but has been best when ridden from the front. He enjoys a good draw today, so with the blinkers fitted, one would hope he is much sharper and is going to be well positioned.

This son of Sholokhov is a relentless galloper, big and scopey build, he could be hard to pass over the Derby trip once he is in front. Of course only if he has the class as well. He has to improve dramatically on what he has shown so far. But he has a chance to do so in my mind – a better one than his massive price tag.

Graasten @ 66/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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4.10 Ayr: Handicap (Class 3), 1m

Wide open race, not many appear well handicapped, although Pintura might well be, judged on his former best. He is down to a lowly mark off 89 now – that might well reflect his true potential now – but he seemed to regain something of his best when a fair third over course and distance here at Ayr back in May. He was a good runner-up that day coming of a long break.

I happily ignore his latest run at Haydock in unsuitable quick conditions. This today should suit rather well though. There is a bit of juice in the ground as he likes it and could be underestimated.

Main danger is obviously the lightly raced favourite Obsidian who could easily have still more to offer and should really close. However he’s a short enough price, while Pintura offers a bit of value.

Pintura @ 16/1 Stan James – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Ejaazah Value in Dragon Stakes

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Sherlock Holmes looks a really nice prospect. He’s a real stayer, a relentless galloper, as he proved last night at Bellestown once again. He didn’t win by much, but he finished the job, despite unsuited by the track and despite looking green. He won’t go up for much in the mark and wherever he pops up next will be potentially well in. Not so much luck with the other two, though they run well in fairness.

2.50 Sandown: Dragon Stakes (Listed), 5f

Red hot favourite Soapy Aitken was’t disgraced when fourth at Royal Ascot. But he’s not an outstanding chance in this field in my eyes. On paper, the form of Riflescope looks stronger, as he ran on strongly to finish fourth in the Norfolk Stakes. Is he speedy enough though?

The lightly raced filly Ejaazah makes appeal. She showed prime speed in a hot maiden on debut, progressed from that in a good manner when she won at Chester subsequently. She is well bred and open to any kind of improvement. She is overpriced in this field.

Ejaazah @ 15/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Global Racing

Penalty for Red All Star at Bellestown

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Plutocracy beaten in the dying strides last night at Kempton – he had too much to do from off the pace in a slowly run affair. But no excuses. If he’d been good enough, he would have won. It’s that simple. Same applies to Pat Harkin, who was subject of massive gamble before the off. He failed to justify the support and could only manage to finish in third. Let’s hope for better today….

4.20 Haydock: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 6f

Favourite Dannyday looks extremely hard to beat here but is too short for me given there is some better value to find in this field. Not in Polarisation, though. I don’t think he’ll appreciate the trip, and quite frankly don’t think he is well handicapped.

The unknown quantity in this field is the Makfi filly Quest For Wonder. You can’t really judge her on the recent 11 lengths romp at Brighton against much inferior opposition. Though I liked her enthusiasm and the way she galloped all the way to the line. That is a good indication for her ability to stay further. If you do the job so easily over 12f on soft ground at stiff Brighton you’re almost sure to stay further.

There is plenty of stamina on her dam side as well to support this case, less so on her sire side. The quick ground is a big difference today – but Makfi won the Guineas on quick ground and on the dam line is plenty of fast ground form to find either.

Quest For Wonder is a progressive individual, who could have still more to offer and may be able to overcome a massive 10lb hike in the ratings. She is potentially underestimated here.

Quest For Wonder @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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6.25 Tipperary: Handicap (4YO plus), 5f

Patrick Martin’s Red All Star is still unexposed over five furlongs and seems to have found an ideal opportunity to score. The five year old should appreciate the drop in trip given that he has loads of pace but didn’t quite see out 7f in the past. Most notably at Naas one week ago.

He showed good gate speed that day, but was keen all the way while tracking the lead. Turning for home he went to the front, travelling like the winner until approaching the final furlong marker where he tired badly and got caught. He can race off the same mark today, a career lowest rating, which could slightly underestimate his true potential. Particularly in a field with mostly exposed sorts going to post.

There are no excuses here today, he’s the best handicapped horse, can race off a feather weight, should appreciate the conditions and has a top jockey in the saddle. Banker material.

Red All Star @ 5/2 Paddy Power – 10pts Win

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7.15 Bellestown: Handicap (60-90), 1m 6f

I was keen on Sherlock Holmes the last time when he got off the mark in a decent maiden at Ballinrobe. This lightly raced Galileo son improved well from his debut run at the Curragh and despite not suited by the sharp turns of the track, he finished the job in good style.

This big, leggy & scopey colt is wonderfully bred and will appreciate the additional furlong today. He is a relentless galloper and the Bellestown track is not quite as sharp as Ballinrobe and should suit him better. Given the huge weight advantage he has here due to the WFA allowance, he’s expected to improve again and win this today.

Sherlock Holmes @ 5/4 Paddy Power – 10pts Win

Ireland

Pat Harkin Has The Right Tools To Get Off The Mark

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8.25 Fairyhouse: Handicap (47-75), 1m 2f

A rather open and competitive looking affair, with plenty of form closely matched. Nonetheless the two lto winners make plenty of appeal. The penny has finally dropped for Lake Champlain when he scored at Down Royal 11 days ago. Only 3lb higher today, he remains of interest.

Same applies to Social Climber, who went agonisingly close at Leopardstown before blinkers helped him to focus when it really matters as he followed on to win his first race at Gowran Park.

He is closely matched on his Leopardstown form with Pat Harkin and Alcock And Brown who finished not far behind in fourth and fifth. These two meet Social Climber on 9lb and 6lb better terms today, which may swing things in their favour. 

Alcock And Brown raced wide and lost ground in the home turn, yet finished strongly. A more ground saving ride and the better weights should see him going close today.

But Pat Harkin seems the better prospect. He hit the crossbar a couple of times but is improving all the time. He’s clearly bred to get the trip and has the weights in his favour today. He’s 9lb better off with the favourite and 3lb etter off with AAB. He seems the best handicapped horse in this field.

Pat Harkin @ 9/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win