4.30 Epsom: Group 1 English Derby, 1m 4f

How much hype is left, and is it still real? Well, in any case I can’t have City of Troy today, even though, given his sky high reputation at Ballydoyle, 3/1 could be tremendous value come shortly after half past five.

For that he must be a different colt than the one that showed up at Newmarket. Well-respected racing analysts suggested there were good reason why COT failed to fire at Newmarket, and why Epsom’s Derby test should suit him so much better

That may well be true. But will the actual race be run to suit him in practice? The #1 draw and all the pace in the race won’t make it easy for COT to settle or find an easy route to a comfortable position early on. The dangers of him overracing early on are real, I feel.

I find Ancient Wisdom much more appealing, given he should improve for the Dante run, most likely will improve for the trip and seems drawn right around the likely pace.

He was somewhat unfortunate when having to delay his run from 3 furlongs out in the Dante, which may have added to the 6 lengths defeat, which looks more dramatic than it may have been otherweise.

Not sure whether he needs it much softer, though. His best performances come with plenty of juice in the ground. There is good to soft left, but it continues to dry. At 6/1 I feel he’s just about a fair price.

Derby Trial winner Ambiente Friendly couldn’t have been more impressive visually at Lingfield. He may have been really well suited to how the race developed, though, and it was a poor renewal of the race. Hence I’m intrigued whether he can confirm that seemingly impressive performance.

Glenagles siring a Derby winner would be quite something, too. He’s got some decent progeny that stayed this trip. But this is a different level than a Group 2 in France, where they crawl the first three quarters of the race.

Los Angeles has been touted as the “ideal Derby horse” by some experts. He certainly did well to win the Derby Trial at Leopardstown and given the yard he hails from, you’d expect nothing less than improvement today.

Lightly raced, clearly more to come and the trip probably fine, given he’s a son of Camelot, he’s a big player. However, I don’t like the fact that he’s yet to run any significant speed rating.

The one I’m most interest in from a price point of view is clearly Dancing Gemini. He’s got the right pedigree, with dam and damsire both having been Derby winners. He’d be a Classic winner if for a better ride, I believe, too.

It was an outrageous crime that Dylan Browne McMonagle wasted a superb draw and a fine start to the French Guineas. He was shuffled back and ultimately had to delay his run until 150m out, when Dancing Gemini stayed on strongly, and perhaps a couple more strides would have won – or if Dancing Gemini would have gone into the clear a tiny bit earlier.

The son of Camelot travelled nicely throughout, was fairly well settled and showed a tremendous attitude and bravery in the closing stages.

Obviously, moving up to the Derby trip is an unknown. But he’s got the pedigree, and perhaps the #15 draw means he can easily move forward, to track the pace, without wasting too much energy early on.

I also like his general experience: six career runs, two wins and he improved significantly with nearly each run.

He hinted no uncertain amount of talent when sprinting away at Newbury with a first maiden success in August, before romping home in the Scotsman Stakes.

Perhaps committing too early in the Futurity Stakes, Dancing Gemini ran still with plenty of credit in a hot renewal back in October last year. Having clearly trained on, he should be well capable of outrunning his price tag today.

10ps win – Dancing Gemini @ 11.5/1

…….

5.50 Epsom: Class 2 Handicap, 6f

Can’t leave Mums Tipple unbacked today after another highly credible effort at Newmarket recently. His chances were severely compromised by the draw and it was impressive how he kept going to finish 4th.

Mums Tipple impressed prior to Newmarket in two of his three runs on the sand and suggested the way he finished those races that he retains plenty of talent.

He proved that at Newmarket, and before caught the eye at Kempton in no uncertain terms as well, when runner-up behind smart Mount Athos.

He travelled in rear and wasn’t advantaged by a slow pace, being poorly positioned, compared to the winner, who enjoyed an easy race from the front. Mums Tipple made eyecatching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest as well to be denied by a head in the end.

He pulled too hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior at Wolverhampton but was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield.

He’s not the most prolific winner these days, but off a mark of 96 given he was competitive off marks in the 100s not too long ago.

The 6 furlongs trip will suit – his career-best performances have come over this trip and and any softish patches in the ground won’t be an issue, neither any further drying.

Ideally he would be drawn a little bit lower today, I reckon, given that’s where the pace will most likely develop. It’s a risk that he may end up running on well as happened at Newmarket, but never gets a chance to be in the race for real.

10pts win – Mums Tipple @ 11/1