Pogo was quite disappointing on Saturday. He burnt off too much energy way too early. Perhaps I should have read the pace chart more intently, and would have noticed there was a danger for pressure, which was there, and not ideal at a track such Newbury for a horse like Pogo.

On the other hand, it’s all probabilities, and at the price, after much deliberation, I’d have backed him again.

……

5.15 Sandown: Class 4 Handicap, 10f

Progressive Auld Toon Loon could have found an ideal opportunity to get a third win this season. The way this Handicaps pans out could ensure it falls right into his lap.

Pace is going to be key here. Some of those theoretically more dangerous rivals would want a solid gallop. While ATL is one of the few horses here who is probably rather comfortable of having anything to do with the pace, in the first place.

Over this sort of trip his record in Handicaps reads 2-1-1-2 this summer and he nearly would have gone back to back two weeks ago Haydock, proving his excellent form.

That day he moved forward and lead as part of a duo before he grabbed the contested lead by the neck halfway through and travelled seriously well into the home straight with the rest of the field on the stretch over 3f out.

Eventually he paid for the effort on heavy ground and the strong winner came for him, was ridden with a bit more restraint and overtook him.

Auld Toon Loon looks still progressing, nonetheless, and a 2lb hike in the mark may not stop him today. The ground is much better today, which should suit, given he won on fast in June when things didn’t go his way early in the race, a performance that warranted an upgrade.

Lat time at Haydock he ran a career-best 75 speed rating. A bit more is needed given his revised mark. I feel he’s got the class to do that, in the right race.

Today may not be a fast run, though. In any case Auld Toon Loon will be in the right spot, up there close to the front, and possibly difficult to get to once in front.

10pts win – Auld Toon Loon @ 5/1

…….

5.00 Pontefract: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This looks seriously competitive without being competitive. Few appear well-handicapped. Also the pace could turn out to make this difficult for some of the better fancied horses. The favourite may find himself stuck behind a wall of horses from his low draw, potentially.

Even though he already won twice in the not too distinct future and hasn’t rattled the cage in his two recent runs for a new yard, I can’t help but feel Surprise Picture – even with some money coming this morning – is overpriced, if on a going day, and could spring a surprise, indeed.

He shouldn’t find it too difficult to move across and track the pace from the #7 draw here. If he does that, he’ll be bang there when it matters when the field turns for home.

A possibly easy enough starting phase to get into a good spot, he also has pace for the trip but stays further and enjoys fast ground, at a track that favours those up with the pace over this trip – he could have enough left in the tank to fight it out.

He won last summer off 75 and ran to a 76 speed rating at Hamilton over 6 furlongs; his form this year has been moving closely into that direction again, as he ran a 70 speed rating for his Musselburgh win over 7f furlongs off 67 back in June.

Today may not be his day, I can see that argument that he’s only becoming competitive once below 70 again – but this looks a superb opportunity and I think he’ll be trying.

10pts win – Surprise Picture @ 17/1