3.26 Deauville: Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois, 1m

Wow, what a hot race. Probably the deepest Group 1 of the season, so far? The best of the Classic generation versus the best of the older milers. Exciting!

Twelve months ago the filly Inspiral won the race in a dramatic finish with a career-best performance. She’s here again and tries to defend her title. She has to put a shocking run in the Sussex Stakes behind, though.

If we forgive her the Goodwood run, which may have been simply down to the ground, her only other start this season came in the Queen Anne and was a massive given the circumstances.

The problem is: Deauville is likely to ride quite soft today. Softer than last year, and the fact remains Inspiral does her best work on a sounder surface. She may struggle in these conditions. And especially against some serious opposition, who do relish soft ground.

Good Guess ran to a 104 speed rating when he landed the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat recently. That’s brilliant form, but I doubt he gets home well enough against top-class opposition over a mile.

French Guineas winner Marhaba Ya Sanafi drops back to a mile after a gallant effort in the French Derby. He was caught up behind a wall of horses at the wrong time.

If he can take another step forward, which he has to in this field, he’s right in the mix. The fact he stayed on so strongly, makes me wonder whether a drop to a mile is the right move, though.

Light Infantry ran two huge races back-to-back in Group 1 company lately. A consistent colt, who at his very best can feature.

On last years form he’s got an obvious chance, given his superb runner-up performance in this very race. The ground doesn’t worry him and he should be competitive once again. Whether this seasons form is quite good enough remains to be seen, though.

His third place in the Queen Anne ties in with the winner of the Royal Ascot race, Triple Time. It was a massive career-best, somewhat unexpected for many, after 262 days off the track.

The talented son of Frankel showed promise earlier in his career but had issues that prevented him from realising his full potential as a 3-year-old. Now a year older, fit and healthy, he remains unexposed in a sense that we don’t know yet the ceiling.

He won on soft ground as a juvenile. Nonetheless, his best form comes on a sounder surface. This isn’t a class 4 Novice race at Haydock. There’re questions marks, for that reason, in my mind.

I’m curious about Erevann, who enjoys soft ground and on the basis of last years form would be a huge runner. He achieved a career-best in this race 12 months ago, and also won on deep ground a Group 2 in fine style subsequently.

If you’d run last years Jacques Le Marois again you may get a different result… it probably made a difference that Inspiral and Light Infantry finished closer to the rail, while Erevan stayed in the middle and also made contact with a rival two furlongs from home. Another day he wins it.

He wasn’t quite in the same form in two runs this year, yet – at least on paper. Although, perhaps it’s fair to say, he was quite unfortunate in the Prix d’Ispahan when last seen as his path was blocked on the inside rail over a furlong from home at the most crucial stage of the race.

If one wants to see his 2023 form in a negative light, then he was disappointing, given the market expectations on both occasions. In a more positive light one could read it: he has improve with each run and should peak today.

How much more peaking can Big Rock do? Current favourite and one who should enjoy the drop in trip with the deep ground to make it more a test of stamina, nonetheless.

He just got seriously tired in the final furlong in the French Derby, otherwise he’d have been an impressive winner. Big Rock ran consistently strong speed ratings this season. He’s rock solid, so to speak.

A break should have helped to recover from those big efforts. I wonder whether he’s quite at 100% today, though, with some big targets looming large in Autumn?

He’d be my ‘likeliest winner’ selection, nonetheless. At the prices I pass. I also pass on Hi Royal. Obviously I’m a fan, but this is too deep for him, most likely.

In summary: Plenty of serious chances in this field. What a race! At the given prices I’ll see the value in Erevann, who could peak today and with a clear run will be right in the mix when it matters most. Ground, trip and track are perfect.

10pts win – Erevann @ 10.5/1