Monthly Archives: March 2023

Betting

All-Weather Monday Selections: 6th March 2023

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5.30 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Mustaffiz ran a huge race last week at Chelmsford when 3rd in a seriously hot race where the first and second ran to career-best or near career-best speed ratings.

He was tracking the pace from an advanced midfield position and travelled really well as he approached the home straight. Switching for the centre of the track may have cost him momentum, when perhaps going for the clear passage toward the inside would have been the better option.

Suddenly he found himself with a clear a passage and bumped into the eventual winner in a fight for space. He held on for third but had no chance with the first two home.

The gelding has nicely progressed from run to run lately, since his mark has dropped to a more realistic level and when he caught the eye as a potential improver early last month, as he ran quite well, slightly better than the 5/10 finish would make you believe the next time, followed by the aforementioned lto performance.

This is an easier race as he drops into 0-60 but stays on the same 60 mark. He’s been given an obvious chance to win and has the added bonus of a nice low draw and should enjoy the fast pace to track.

10pts win – Mustaffiz @ 13/2

……..

6.00 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

The handicap newcomers could be intriguing contenders, you just don’t know what you going to get with them. The more proven form in the race is certainly beatable.

That says unexposed over the 6 furlong trip is also Turbo Tiger, who showed promising signs when last seen over the minimum trip at Newcastle last month.

That day he moved quickly and keenly forward, probably wasting quite a bit of energy in the early part of the race. He was swamped over 1f out, seemingly flat footed, before coming back for more in the final half furlong.

That was impressive. Only a horse in good form can do that. It also appeared he clearly has the stamina for 6 furlongs, given how he seemingly enjoyed the stiff finish at Newcastle.

He was freshly gelded only a few weeks prior and it was good to see that he improved a bit from his previous seven career runs. Although, he wasn’t disgraced in the majority of those, ran with credit and didn’t always got the luckiest of runs.

There is a danger that he is too keen over 6 furlongs, but I feel everything we saw so far points to him wanting the additional furlong and confidence grows as he’s a full-brother to a decent sprinter who does his best over 6f, with a 2/2 record on the All-Weather over 6f.

This here represents a drops in class, taking on slightly lesser opposition and may be more significant than the paltry pound he lost in his official rating.

Having the #1 is a huge bonus in a race with not too much pace. He can just move forward easily to grab the lead and hopefully never to be seen again.

10pts win – Turbo Tiger @ 11/1

Betting

Forget about Luck

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The last two days of my betting have been severely influenced by luck. Yet, as a punter the word ‘luck’ must be eradicated from the vocabulary.

Letmelivemylife wins it in a photo. Thomas Equinas gets a dream run through on the inside. Galileo Glass doesn’t get the gap. May Remain is beaten on the line.

The margins are small in racing. A millimeter or a split second can make a huge difference. The conclusion can only be that luck plays a vital role in the outcome of races.

What does that mean from a betting perspective? Well, some days luck won’t be on your side, no matter how much juice you’ve got in your bet. Another time the misfortune of others will be your luck.

Punters often remember – or see – only when luck turns against them. They don’t recognise when it is in their favour. The negative emotions felt from misfortune are profoundly intense. That’s natural, there is a psychological reason for it. Put simply: losing always feels far worse than winning ever could feel great.

That can be s problem if a losing day stretches into multiple days or even weeks. Negative emotions take over and it can become increasingly difficult to stay emotionally indifferent to the outcome of bets.

However: betting for profit doesn’t depend on luck. Not in the long-run. Therefore, it doesn’t truly matter whether a selection gets beaten in the closest of photo finishes today, or if the much needed gap is going to be denied tomorrow.

Good, quality bets that represent consistent value (i.e. beat SP/BSP) will turn a profit in the long-term. This universal truth will, no matter what, absolutely not depend on any luck whatsoever.

Also universally true is the fact that losing runs are inevitable and that variance has a lot to say about this.

With that in mind there are only two key ingredients to betting profit:
1. Value Bets
2. Emotional indifference to the outcome

A way to put these two points into one single common phrase that translates well to betting: bet the process, not the outcome.

One the point of emotional indifference we can certainly learn from the ancient Stoics – a philosophy that is all about decoupling the mind from negative emotions and seeing things for what they are, in a rational way, no matter what happens to us right now.

“The first rule is to keep an untroubled spirit. The second is to look things in the face and know them for what they are.” – Marcus Aurelius

If we got value in our bets then the misfortune today isn’t truly misfortune, when the action we perceive as misfortune is only one of the possible outcomes, in any case.

Last night reminded me in no uncertain terms about this: I backed 2 winners from 2 selections. Both were probably lucky to win in their own right. One got the most perfect run against the inside rail, the other benefited from a rival perhaps not getting out early enough, which may well have made all the difference in a tight photo.

That was in total contrast to the days prior, even recent weeks and months, and made me remember the importance of the aforementioned key ingredients.

Betting-wise the last half year was largely challenging. Especially the last three weeks, as I couldn’t back a winner, no matter how much value I got and how well selections were backed on the day.

I didn’t become a poor punter overnight. In fact, over the last three months roughly 60% of my bets beat SP… for minus 75pts return. Autsch. If one of the “unlucky” ones would have won, the red would have turned green. Other times my “lucky” winners could have lost on another day and may have changed the outcome of a green month.

Having extensive records of all my bets helps to see things in the right context. Largely, I am happy with my body of work over the last while. If I beat SP more often than not, I know I will win in the long-run.

I know this for a fact after nearly a decade of betting on horses and recording every single bet. In a time when my process has marginally changed and relies on a specific skillset that is different to the general punter hence generates an edge.

It’s a statistical certainty – and far from unusual if I consult my records – that there are times of despair, though; the average odds were 8/1+ over the aforementioned last quarter – losing runs are inevitable. Yes, 19 consecutive losing selections are tough to take on the chin. But it happens.

Long story short: luck may determine the outcome of today. It won’t determine whether you are going to be a profitable punter in the long-run. If you’re still in red after 1000 bets that’s not down to a lack of luck. It’s because of a lack of skill.

With that in mind: take the days when things go against your selection easier, and recognise the days luck is on your side. If you know you have an edge you will win in the long-term. That’s the only thing to care about.

Betting

All-Weather Thursday Selections: 2nd March 2023

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Painful. Two 2nd placed efforts, including one beaten on the line and one blatant non-trier. Frustrating day. Again. May Remain looked to have it with half a furlong to go but then tired rapidly to get pinged shortly before the line. Agonising to watch.

Big Bard was probably too far back, finished solid for second place, but ultimately was fair and square beaten, in truth.

Muy Muy Guapo drifted out to 14/1 SP today, the writing was on the wall. And so it happened, as ‘surprisingly’ the colt started slowly and didn’t get a ride that would have given him any chance to get close.

That’s okay. it’s the game I have chosen to play voluntarily. It’s just the little bit harder to take during such rotten spell as it is for the last three weeks.

…….

5.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Give A Little Back? Probably not here. Up in class, around Chelmsford, this may be too sharp, the opposition too classy. I still hope to get my day with him another time.

The other one who is of serious interest is Letmelivemylife. He caught the eye in no uncertain terms last time. That was his debut for a new yard after a break since August.

He was held up after an alter enough start, travelled really strongly but gave ground away when turning widest. He wasn’t really asked for full effort until late and finished nicely, nonetheless.

You would hope he can improve for the outing. However, he wasn’t seen since then, now it’s four weeks later, that begs the question why? On the other hand, he seems a tricky sort given his lightly raced profile over the last two years.

He certainly has got a bit of talent as he won twice on the All-Weather as a juvenile and as a 3yo, both wins over 7 furlongs, including here at Chelmsford, when he also ran to a 76 speed rating.

We didn’t see much of him since, and after a bunch of poor showings, he has fallen down to a 74 handicap rating, from an 84 career-highest, only five runs back.

Clearly he showed a significant return to some form the last time, and that gives plenty of hope in this class 5 contest over a C&D he’s 3-1-1 from a good low draw.

10pts win – Letmelivemylife @ 13/2

…..

6.25 Chelmsford: Classified Stakes, 7f

I am not totally sure whether Thomas Equinas truly stays 7 furlongs. But around Chelmsford in a race that may not be run at the furious gallop he should have a decent chance.

If he does get home he could have a class edge here given he ran extremely well of higher marks at this track over 6 furlongs than what will be required here on level weights where few rivals look legitimately better than the 50 limit.

There were good things in nearly all his last four runs, visually or on the numbers. At this venue in early December over 6 furlongs he was only 2½L beaten off a 57 mark, running to a 54 speed rating. He wasn’t disgraced the next few times, especially his January run here once again was eyecatching.

Last time out from a wide draw after a sluggish start he ran okay when taking into account that he went wide, given a lot of ground away, throughout the race.

Slight worry that he was twice in a row not the sharpest out of the gate. A better draw here and a less frantic early pace may help the cause.

10pts win – Thomas Equinas @ 7/2