Preview: Juddmonte International 2018

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This is not a vintage renewal of the Juddmonte International… as so many other major flat races this year. It feels a bit like a flat flat season, so to speak. I seem not to be the only one who feels this way. On the other hand, the question could be asked: are we undervaluing the achievements of Poet’s Voice?

Possibly. Possibly not. Possibly because he’s a five-year old, around for a long time, and this sudden improvement which has seen the Stoute inmate landing two major Group 1 races on the bounce – the Prince of Wales and King George – hasn’t caused the same excitement as they would have if a sexy Ballydoyle three-year old would have done the same.

Possibly not, though, because the key rivals he’s beaten at Royal Ascot were clearly out of form and not quite up to the standard you’d usually see in a King George either.

I’m sitting on the fence here. I don’t rate the Royal Ascot success all that highly, although felt Poet’s Voice King George success was a stunning performance, if only visually. Coming from off the pace, to peg back a fine Ledger runner-up, who got first run – that was quite something.

That says, I do not think Poet’s Voice has suddenly found all this dramatic improvement over the last winter, that has resulted in him shooting up the ratings from a 119 rated individual to a world-class high 130.

In fact, I do firmly believe – while acknowledging he seems to improve with age – he is not dramatically better than his runner-up performance in the Irish Champion Stakes last year. A view that may not be shared by many.

What does this mean in the context of this race today? It means that the gap between Poet’s Voice and the leading three-year old’s going to post isn’t as high as the official ratings says. And if that is the assumption then both Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior in particular must have cracking chances to overturn the favourite as they receive 7lb through weight for age.

While Benbatl and Irish Derby winner Latrobe can’t be underestimated, my view is that the Eclipse first and second are the main dangers to short priced favourite Poet’s Voice.

Personally I am more a fan of Roaring Lion but from a betting perspective I have to concede the price for Saxon Warrior is foolish. Let’s not forget there was only a neck between the pair at Sandown.

One could make cases for the Ballydoyle horses had the run of the race, or that Roaring Lion drifted to his right pushing Saxon Warrior toward the rails in the closing stages which may have cost him momentum.

Either way, there is clearly not a lot between these two. However the betting would suggest Roaring Lion is a couple of lengths better than the reigning 2000 Guineas winner. Not in my book.

The trip may be in favour of Roaring Lion, and also Poet’s Voice. Or is it? Saxon Warrior stays the trip as good as these two I believe. Given he had a good break now and comes here relatively fresh is a positive.

After all there is very little between three three market principles in my view.  Hence the 6/1 on offer for last years Racingpost Trophy winner is over the top.

Selection: 
10pts win – Saxon Warrior @ 6/1 PP

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2 thoughts on “Preview: Juddmonte International 2018”

  1. Horse racing is such a wonderful sport as it is one of so many opinions. At 1.30pm on Wednesday I will go on record and say that I disagree with just about every point you make. This race has a cornucopia of recent Group One winners. Even if this years classic crop are yet to prove themselves this is just about the best of them. How does Poets Word improve 11lbs? Three words Patience. Michael. Stoute. Not a mention of the Godolphin pair. Saxon Warrior may be too big at 6/1 but lets hope he performs better than Land Force and Rhododendron at the weekend?

    Great Sport. Great race.

    On Wed, Aug 22, 2018 at 1:14 PM, Horseracing – International . COM wrote:

    > Florian Christoph posted: ” This is not a vintage renewal of the Juddmonte > International… as so many other major flat races this year. It feels a > bit like a flat flat season, so to speak. I seem not to be the only one who > feels this way. On the other hand, the question could be ” >

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Thank you for your comment and honest opinion. More than fair enough that you see it totally differently, Simon. As you say, it’s a game of opinions.

      I don’t claim to be right anyway, but rather try to illustrate my thoughts behind the evaluation of a race and why I am coming to a certain betting decision. In this case, given my personal evaluation of the runners, I concluded Saxon Warrior has a better than 15% chance to win, which in the context of given odds meant a good bet. However, I personally favour Roaring Lion, though his price isn’t one to back unfortunatly.

      In saying that, this race, as much as this flat season, does not excite me as it did in years past. That you feel this differently about it is perfectly fine and I’m happy for you if you enjoy this year more than I do.

      Like

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