Tag Archives: Scottsville

Saturday Selections: 17th June 2023

Not gonna happen right now, is it? Huge run by Barrier despite drifting out to 33s for 2nd place, but that’s no good for me as a win only backer. Bell Song was well backed down to 9/2 SP, and then didn’t get a run from off the pace.

Searching vain for the elusive next winner. “Funny” thing: pretty much the exact same happened last year at this time of the year. A torrid first half of June.

…….

4.10 Bath: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Lunario was arguably an unfortunate 3rd last time at Lingfield, when beaten in the tightest of finishes in a photo that could have gone either way. On a different day he could have been the winner.

Fair arguments can be brought forward for the notion that he was the ‘moral winner’ – if such thing would exist – and he should be able to make amends here on Saturday.

He meets Gone once again, the winner last time at Lingfield, but on better terms. Because Gone has gone up a couple of pounds, whereas Lunario remains on the same mark.

Over 7.5 furlongs at Lingfield last time out I felt the performance warranted an upgrade, though. And if that proves correct, the colt could be well-handicapped.

There he was slightly bumped by a rival as the left the gates. Still somewhat green and raw, he was niggled behind the leading horses, possibly even a bit flat footed, but then made huge progress on the outside once pulled out for a clear view of the final furlong.

Even tough he seemed destined to run home and grab the W, he didn’t help his case when hanging badly to the left, as he continued showing greenness.

That was Lunario’s Handicap debut and it’s fair to assume he can progress from here. If he can than there is every possibility that he’s better than a 65 Official Rating.

He steps up in trip, albeit ever so slightly. On pedigree there’s no doubt he’ll stay a mile, in any case.

It’s also worth pointing out that at Lingfield he achieved a 65 speed rating, despite everything that went wrong on the day. Therefore, he must have a massive chance to win, if he runs straight to the line.

10pts win – Lunario @ 5/1

…….

1.45 Scottsville: Grade 3, Track And Ball Derby, 12f

Airways Law is one I’m tracking for over a year now, ever since he caught the eye on the All-Weather with some scintillating performances early in his career, before he won a Durban July trial in impressive fashion and subsequently ran an eyecatching race in the July.

He’s hard to fancy on recent form, or basically anything he had done since last July in four subsequent runs. Although, his two runs in Grade 2 company in December and January were a lot better than the bare form suggested.

The gelding had a recent comeback run here at Scottsville after about 6 months off the track. He had a tough task over the short trip and on the weights and wasn’t expected to do much.

A 12/12, 13 lengths beaten result doesn’t instill much confidence that he’s anywhere near in form. But as he moves up in trip, and quite significantly, it’s should be noted Airways Law usually improves for his second run.

There is every chance that this here is a prep run for a bigger date on the July card (or the big one itself), but the fact he 2/3 for rest+2 is pointing more toward that this is his “July”, as he also would need to show a significant return to form to feature in any future big race.

The trip is on the far end of what the gelding is likely to stay. On the other hand they won’t go a mad gallop and this race is much easier than the Grade 2’s he ran in prior.

Also, looking back to last years July run, which was as far as he ever went, he stayed on pretty well This is a very winnable contest and the fact he travelled well and with enthusiasm during his recent reappearance suggests there is still some fire in the belly.

10pts win – Airways Law @ 8/1

Kingston Mines a Threat with Blinkers

3.00 Scottsville: Track & Ball ‘Derby'(Grade 2)

This stayers contest has been won by Hot Ticket last year in impressive fashion, when it was still held at now defunct Clairwood racecourse over half a furlong longer trip. Now at Scottsville over 2.400m, the same result is expected nonetheless. Hot Ticket is the hot favourite, and for all the right reasons.

He’s South Africa’s top stayer, 112 rated, and has a prime chance in this field with the official ratings weights very much in is favour. No doubt, he’ll be hard to beat as he should be in peak form today after two decent prep runs over shorter. The only thing that may find him out is the trip. 2.400m on quick ground is potentially not his optimum. Nonetheless, I give him a 50% chance of winning the race, given that the opposition has so much to find on the ratings.

Realistically there are only three other runners able to put a fight to Hot Ticket. Disco Al has been in good form lately and stays the 2400m trip well. He is, however, slightly below top class level and was beaten by 5.5 lengths in this race last year. This Ramsden charge is well exposed these days and while sure to run his race, is likely to fall short.

Double Clouth is an improving sort. He tries this trip for the first time and if he stays it it may well help him to progress even further – however there isn’t much in his pedigree suggesting he’ll stay it. There is pace on here and it probably will find him out.

Also on the upward has been Kingston Mines. He has progressed from low grade handicaps into a multiple Grade 2 winner in the staying division. He is likely to be setting the pace here and has top jockey Delpech in the saddle. He was disappointing in his last two starts and has a good deal to find on the ratings. Blinkers are on though, and that could well help to squeeze out a bit of improvement again.

The two three year old’s Krambabuli and Mater James should find it very tough to compete. Even so the former one has to be respected coming from a top yard with an unexposed profile. Says trip and class are against him.

Verdict: No doubt, Hot Ticket is very hard to beat here. However I feel Kingston Mines is a real threat and underestimated. He developed into a very good stayer, is a multiple Stakes winner and is likely to make all from the front with first time blinkers added. He’ll ensure to set a good pace and will try to stretch them entering the home straight.

If this turns out to be the stamina test is should be then, there are only him and the favourite likely to be suited by it. Given that we know how good Hot Ticket is, but can’t be quite sure yet whether Kingston Mine has reached his full potential, I side with this overpriced De Kock runner. If he can improve for the new headgear, he’s in for a very big performance.

Kingston Mines @10/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win