5.05 Newcastle: Classified Stakes, 7f

The drop in trip looks possibly ideal for How Bizarre, who ran a massive race last time out at Newcastle over a mile. But ultimately his profile, as an 8-year-old, on the All-Weather, is totally exposed. Hence I readjust my interest toward He’s So Brazen, who looks also suited by the drop to 7 furlongs.

He caught my attention in early December at Wolverhampton for the first time. That day He’s So Brazen was was seriously keen throughout the race, but especially between 5 to 4 furlongs out. It was impressive, all the more when he loomed large seemingly ready for a big challenge as he entered the home straight. He fell away eventually, showed a high head-carriage, looked awkward, was wandering, and ran into trouble over one furlong out.

He also caught the eye on his next and most recent run, then at Southwell, over a mile. He led the field in first time blinkers, again showing signs of keenness, as he set a solid tempo, especially early on. I was impressed that he was able to kick on again three furlongs out, before falling away, proving awkward once again.

He has clearly issues and is a tricky customer. But he clearly got enough ability to win a race of this desperately low level, and remains somewhat lightly raced, certainly in the context of this race.

He doesn’t stay a mile and the jury is out whether he even gets home over 7 furlongs. A demanding, stiff 7 furlongs at Newcastle could be right at his limit, I reckon. But what gives hope is the stamina on the dam side through the dam sire and the fact his sire’s record over this C&D is surprisingly positive.

In any case the drop to 7 furlongs is a major bonus, given that he should settle better, at the very least. Second time blinkers fitted should help him to be sharp out of the gate and he may be a bit better used to them now.

It’s only his second try over the trip – the first one came on turf as a 66/1 chance. Therefore he’s open to improvement. If he does settle and gets home over this trip he has a huge chance to outrun his big price tag.

10pts win – He’s So Brazen @ 13/1