Tag Archives: All-Weather

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Quick Witted worth a punt

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1.30 Chelmsford: Maiden Stakes, 1m 2f

This seems a rather hot affair for a maiden on a dreary Sunday at the Chelmsford All-Weather. Plenty of trainers and jockey come out here for only this one race.

So does Harry Dunlop and Pat Cosgrave. Dunlop saddles the one time raced filly Quick Witted, who was a modest seven of 13 on her debut three weeks ago at Kempton over 1m. She was seriously outpaced over three furlongs out but run on well to the line, if one wants to give her credit.

She’s quite nicely bred for a race of this type though, and clearly should enjoy the step up to 10f today, which looks more a trip suitable.

The fact that Cosgrave comes down for this one ride suggests she may not only in for another educational ride, given the jockey has been remarkably hot in the last couple of weeks. The filly is a huge price in the betting nonetheless, but for that reason worth a nibble.

Quick Witted @ 22/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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Chemlsford: Flighty will enjoy new trip

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.00 Chelmsford: Class 4 Fillies’ Handicap, 1m 5f

This looks an open contest with more than half of the field in with realistic chances. However High And Flighty went into my notebook back in November when an excellent runner-up at Wolverhampton over 12f, as she was the only one from those up with the pace able to sustain a real effort to the line, while I thought back then a step up in trip could be interesting for this filly.

She tries this slightly further distance for the first time now after a disappointing run at Lingfield in the meantime, although in a hot little race.

High And Flighty has still not too many miles on the clock and looks capable off her current mark. Now going against her own sex she could be really competitive in a race like this here.

 High And Flighty @ 8/1 VC – 5pts Win

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Saturday NAP

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Dundalk All-Weather

2.00 Southwell: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Shootingsta is the solid form choice and deserved favourite. Good second over course and distance lto, though current mark doesn’t leave much room for error.

The main dangers might be: The filly Assault On Rome, who has won at Wolverhampton over 7f when last seen, only 3lb up and still likely to be on a fair mark judged on past form. Southwell debut but may be alright if preference for soft going on turf is any indicator. Stays further.

Captain Revelation drops to a handy mark, 1lb below last win. Front-runner who has been placed at Southwell in the past. Visor off and back from break.

Golden Highway has been poor since getting off the mark on debut at Chelmsford last year. However drops markedly in trip and mark and might be well suited by this test with pedigree suggesting he’ll act here however has been off for half a year.

Verdict: I feel Assault On Rome is a huge price given her good recent form and the fact she has a good draw and stays further. She should be up with the pace, which I expect to be lethal, and in a slug to the line she might be able to grind it out, given she acts on the fibresand.

Assault On Rome @ 10/1 Coral – 5pts Win

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Chelmsford: Jassur deserves another chance

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Gordon Lord Byron

6.10 Chelmsford: Class 6 Nursery, 1m 2f

Competitive affair and more open than the market suggests in my mind. The favourite has a big shout of an unchanged mark after an excellent performance lto but looks a skinny price nonetheless.

Goldenfield and Jassur both ran eye-catchingly in the same race last month, which looks strong form in my mind.

Goldenfield fared better, tracking the pace and just came up short. A 2lb hike in the mark is fair and he may improve again.

Jassur is more interesting though, given his big price tag. He set a suicidal pace the last time but was still there in the home straight; it was no surprise to see him fade badly eventually. The merit of the performance looks better than the bare result suggests

He won at Chelmsford over 10f before by a street and could easily have more to offer off his current mark, particularly with a different ride.

Jassur @ 10/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

Betting Talk

Eye-Catchers: Kempton on Monday

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3.35 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 5f

Seven year old Dynamo Walt is probably high enough in the mark here but ran with plenty of credit the last two starts, following on from his half a lengths success over course and distance.

The draw hasn’t been kind those last two times, it is much more in his favour here. It was eye-catching how he overcame the widest draw at Kempton lto, burning allot of energy in the first two furlongs to get across and take the lead.

He tired eventually in the final furlong, but the merit of this performance is better than the bare result. The form starts to work out well too in the meantime.

Dynamo Walt @ 18/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win

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4.05 Chelmsford: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Lightly raced three year old Natural Nine drops down to 7f and has a big chance to follow-up on two strong recent performances. He found the mile trip too far two starts back here at Chelmsford, coming off a break after winning a Beverly maiden in June.

He really caught my eye the last time at Kempton, though. Changed tactics saw him held up; he travelled very strongly and made excellent progress in the home straight, though got hampered at a crucial stage around the final furlong marker by a shifting horse.

He didn’t quite seem to see out the trip anyway, so it’s questionable how much that really cost him. But he came a long way clear of the rest of the field and was only 3 lengths behind smart, well handicapped & subsequent scorer Afjaan.

With conditions sure to suit, I feel Natural Nine could have still a bit more to offer from his current mark off 79.

Natural Nine @ 4/1 Coral – 5pts Winner

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Wolverhampton: Clockmaker Can go Close

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Laytown 3

20.15 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Despite his age, nine year old veteran Clockmaker makes plenty of appeal in this race from his good draw. He is certainly down a good mark, given he’s a couple of pounds below rated below his last (turf) winning mark and has won off his current rating on the All-Weather before.

His most recent performance here at Wolverhampton over the 7f trip in a better race was most eye-catching given that he ran off like a lunatic, leading the field by several lengths, even when approaching the home straight. It wasn’t a surprise to see him tire soon after, yet he led the field into the final furlong and finished a good 4th in the end.

With a slightly better judged race he can go very close given the handicapper left his mark unchanged.

Clockmaker @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Kempton: Menelik a prime chance with Coackley booked

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Dundalk All-Weather

7.10 Chelmsford: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

My attention is drawn to three horses here in this low grade Handicap. Favourite Bridge Of Sighs won a poor class 7 race the last time, however on his first try over 1m. His lightly raced profile, modest rise in the mark and 3lb claimer on board gives him a decent chance to follow-up.

Two form horses but at the same time with eye-catching runs the last time are Thermal Column and Menelik. The former on is clearly very consistent since changing yards.

Three starts in the last weeks resulted in a placed effort, a hard fought win and an eye-catching runner-up effort most recently. Off an unchanged mark he is a serious contender, although a poor draw makes life difficult.

Menelik is down to a very handy mark at the moment and has been placed the last two of his current rating off 60. He caught the eye the last time at Wolverhampton when he overcame a wide draw and engaged in a fierce fight for the lead early on.

He made allot in those first two furlongs of the race but eventually settled in fourth, tracking a mad pace. He travelled strongly around the home turn approaching the straight leading the pack but was soon headed by the eventual winner and worn down by him as well as the runner-up in the final furlong.

He still came clear a long way of the rest and wasn’t beaten fast. Given that first and second came from way off the pace while he committed allot this rates as a very strong performance.

The slight drop back to 1m will help here, so will the kind draw. Most interestingly is the jockey booking. A good Irish 5lb claimer is over to ride this one race at Chelmsford. His allowance gives Menelik a prime chance in this field.

Menelik @ 8/1 Bet465 – 5pts Win

United Kingdom

Lingfield Preview – Churchill Stakes

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

3.10 Lingfield: Churchill Stakes (Listed)

An ultra competitive race with plenty of pace – it should suit lightly raced favourite Let’s Go down to the grounds. He was only beaten by the best All-Weather horse in the country when last seen and should enjoy the new trip.

That says he is a very short price in a very hot race. There is better value to find. I like a couple but for pure price reasons find it impossible to ignore John Gosden’s Tempus Temporis. He’s made a name for himself as a really good horse on the synthetics last winter, winning two and being placed in a super-competitive All-Weather Championship Finale.

He wasn’t disgraced when last seen at Newmarket when third behind two smart horses either. Off since then it’s hard to know what to expect today from him as a fresh horse. However Gosden has his string is excellent order so one would assume Tempus Temporis will have a fair shot at this.

He tried the 10f trip for the second time. The jury is out whether he truly stays it. From a pedigree perspective he’s got every chance. With a top jockey in the saddle I feel this lad is massively overpriced.

Tempus Temporis @ 20/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Ripoll can progress from nursery debut

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.40 Kempton: Class 6 Nursery, 1m

Despite the widest draw, which is hardly an advantage, lightly raced Ripoll makes appeal at quite a big price, given that I would have expected him much shorter after an excellent Nursery debut at Wolverhampton eight days ago. The form of that particular race looks quite strong if seen in the right context, as I felt quite a number of those finishing behind the winner ran promising that day.

Ripoll doesn’t stand out pedigree wise, though he should theoretically appreciate the drop in trip. The 9.5f at Wolverhampton stretched his stamina, though he ran on well after being hampered over 1f out. Before that he travelled wide through but up with a cracking pace and must have done plenty before turning for home. So it was encouraging the positive way he saw out the race.

Off an unchanged mark I feel he has a prime chance to win this uncompetitive contest where good form is scarce and therefore his latest piece of form certainly the strongest one on offer. If he can progress slightly for the experience, he should be able to overcome the draw and land the odds.

Ripoll @ 15/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Made With Love still open to improvement

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Iron Major Dundalk

3.35 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Second start for Made With Love for the David O’Meara yard – in the context of this race, he’s clearly the most intriguing contender. He should theoretically come on for his most recent outing at Newmarket when finishing stone last on his first start after a break as well as for the new yard.

He seemed quite a decent prospect at the start of the new flat season after he showed promise as a three year old when he landed a Kempton maiden. He started his year with a fine performance in a hot Kempton handicap then, finishing 4th while hanging a closer finish way in the final furlong.

Subsequently upped in trip he got badly hampered at a crucial stage in a Doncaster handicap when he seemed to get his act together to mount a challenge. Seemingly not a straightforward horse, he has been off the track and left John Gosden soon after.

Still Made With Love remains with potential. He’s had only six career starts and is open to some improvement with a hood fitted for the first time. This today is an easier race than what he contested mostly this year and the cushioned polytrack should suit him. If there is no underlying problem, like his breathing, he should be able to be a big runner of a mark off 88 now.

Made With Love @ 9/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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4.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Wide open race that could become a muddling affair due to a clear lack of pace. That may be helpful for some doubtful stayers, like Dutiful Son, who drops significantly in class. He has form over this sort of trip but all his wins came over shorter.

Tournament has a clear chance on past form. He showed some of his old sparkle in his last race, so is expected to run well today. He’s quite a skinny price, though. My Target is on a competitive mark, despite having only won a maiden to date. But he has to take a significant step forward if he wants to win this.

Loyalty is one of the few horses enjoying to be up with the pace. That makes him an interesting candidate. But he’s back from a break and never done particularly well as a fresh horse in the past. A big enough mark doesn’t make the task easier.

Purely from a pace angle Bold Prediction is the most interesting contender. He has been held up in recent starts but to my eye wasn’t ridden with the purpose of finishing as good as possible. He hasn’t done much this season over all and as a result dropped dramatically in the weights. Now down to a lowly mark off 77 he must rate a major danger if he takes advantage of the plum draw and reverts back to usual tactics.

Bold Prediction @ 9/2 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win