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United Kingdom

Cheltenham Preview: Greatwood Hurdle

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2.40 Cheltenham: Greatwood Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap), 2m

Despite the big field and natural competitiveness of the Greatwood, two horses stand out for me: Bouvreuil and Totalize. The former one is only a four year old and surely will have a future as a chaser but should profit from another season over timber, now more experienced and stronger, the Nicholls inmate looks an exciting prospect.

He finished an excellent runner-up in the Fred Winter at the Festival last season which is very strong form in its own right. Back from a break the Greatwood was his early season target, so he should be ready to go today on ground which he’s sure to love. Big field, good pace, soft ground – perfect conditions. Of a mark off 139 looks one with plenty of scope.

Totalize is a different sort. He hasn’t been seen over hurdles for quite a while, instead had not a bad season on the flat. However reportedly he has a schooling run over hurdles in the meantime and seemingly looked good. So does his hurdle form in general.

Back in January 2014 he finished a creditable runner-up here at Cheltenham in a Handicap Hurdle behind classy Lac Fontana. If he could run to that sort of level he’d be right in the mix today off only a 3lb higher mark. Given he may well have improved since then as well as that this is only his eight start over timber, he has some scope as well.

Bouvreuil @ 16/1 William Hill – 5pts Win
Totalize @ 11/1 Racebets – 5pts Win

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Shloer Chase: Can Sprinter bounce back?

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Cheltenham Racecourse

2.10 Cheltenham: Shloer Chase (Grade 2), 2m

Quite an intriguing contest that obviously evolves very much around the question: how good is Sprinter Sacre? His trainer is less than quietly confident, in fact he’s actually been bullish in his comments earlier this week.

Personally I’m not convinced. The problems this former superstar had are well known. Is he really 100% on his seasonal debut? I doubt it. The ground turning softer than you want it for him with all the issues around the breathing is a big question mark, so is the Cheltenham hill these days.

As much as I would love to see Sprinter Sacre back to something close of his best, so much I have to doubt he’ll ever be. In my book he is more like a 6/1 chance in this field than the 5/2 currently on offer. With the ground in mind he may well be taken out anyway.

Another of the old guard of former superstars is Somersby. Surely never been reached the heights of Sprinter Sacre, though the veteran is a multiple Champion Chase runner-up as well as 19 times placed in Graded company! That says he has won only a handful of those and can be best described as a depressing brides mate.

Not getting any younger, the eleven year old veteran would need to be close to his best to win today. Reportedly he’s in good order and I assume he’s geared up for a big run. Whether he has still the class, we’ll find out. He had it last season, certainly, when he finished second – yet again – in the Champion Chase at the Festival.

Having his poor strike rate in mind and the fact that Somersby has actually never won at Cheltenham, he’s probably easy enough to oppose. However in the context of this race, where he receives four pounds from rivals lower rated than him, as well as 10 pounds from Mr Mole, he’s has to have strong credentials, nonetheless.

Mr. Mole, albeit seemingly not really enjoining Cheltenham in the past, would be a huge runner today, if he wouldn’t have to give an awful lot of weight away to the rest of the field. His record as a fresh horse does offset this fact to an extend, but he would need to run to a new level to win this. As a seven year old he could do that, if you want to be positive about his chances.

Croco Bay and Savello are the outsiders in this field, and given their ratings of 151 and 154 you’d expect them to come up short. You can argue both have fitness on their side and – at least in the case of Savello – course and distance form on offer. So neither of them is completely out. Taken the quality of the rest of the field into account I struggle to see them going close, though.

Without the shadow of a doubt Simply Ned has the race at his mercy. The eight year old was runner-up in this contest last year, a race which turned out to be extremely strong form. He has a run under his belt as well, returning to the track in successful manner at Kelso last month.

He looks an improving sort, possible to be even better this year and that gives him a prime chance today. He didn’t land a blow in the Champion Chase last season, though, and has to give 4lb away to Somersby and Sprinter Sacre, despite the fact that these two are higher rated. So he will have to improve again, a bit at least, although those two lads may regress as well.

Summary: Crunch time! This should be exciting to watch. I believe Simply Ned has an excellent chance to take his form to another level. He’s a fair price to do that and clearly is the one to beat. But betting wise I feel the 5/1 on offer for Somersby is generous. Despite his underwhelming win record, the fact that he finished runner-up in the Champion Chase last season gives him the strongest possible credentials in this race.

He receives four pounds from what I believe is the main danger. He’s likely to be fully wound up for the race today and has no issues with the conditions whatsoever. This looks an ideal opportunity to win a race at the jump racing’s HQ at last.

Sommersby @ 5/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Lingfield Preview – Churchill Stakes

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Wet Dundalk Polytrack

3.10 Lingfield: Churchill Stakes (Listed)

An ultra competitive race with plenty of pace – it should suit lightly raced favourite Let’s Go down to the grounds. He was only beaten by the best All-Weather horse in the country when last seen and should enjoy the new trip.

That says he is a very short price in a very hot race. There is better value to find. I like a couple but for pure price reasons find it impossible to ignore John Gosden’s Tempus Temporis. He’s made a name for himself as a really good horse on the synthetics last winter, winning two and being placed in a super-competitive All-Weather Championship Finale.

He wasn’t disgraced when last seen at Newmarket when third behind two smart horses either. Off since then it’s hard to know what to expect today from him as a fresh horse. However Gosden has his string is excellent order so one would assume Tempus Temporis will have a fair shot at this.

He tried the 10f trip for the second time. The jury is out whether he truly stays it. From a pedigree perspective he’s got every chance. With a top jockey in the saddle I feel this lad is massively overpriced.

Tempus Temporis @ 20/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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PP Gold Cup: Art Mauresque worth the gamble

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Cheltenham Festival

1.50 Cheltenham: Handicap Chase (Grade 3), 3m 3F 71Y

Some interesting horses in this race but I feel it’s worth a punt to go with still unexposed Knockanrawley. A seven year old who has done pretty well as a fresh horse in the past, he could be on a lenient mark. He won off 6lb lower a big Handicap Chase at Newbury last December and he’s one who won’t have an issue staying the trip today, although 4m 1f seemed a bit too far after all on his final start last season, albeit he was far from disgraced in 4th in the Eider Handicap Chase.

This trip today looks ideal and the arriving rain shouldn’t be an inconvenience. In fact he is two from three in good to soft. It’ll be only his seventh start over fences and the testing Cheltenham course should work in his favour – for a red hot yard and jockey I feel he is a big price.

Knockanrawley @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5ps Win 

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2.25 Cheltenham: Paddy Power Gold Cup (Grade 3), 2m 4f

Is this the one for Art Mauresque to lose? I feel so. well, it depends on how much more rain we get, but if it stays as it is now, it shouldn’t be too much of a problem for this rapidly improving Paul Nicholls inmate.

He was good on his debut run but improved big time here at Cheltenham last month when he landed a decent Novice Chase. Yes, Parlour Games was disappointing that day, but the runner-up has franked the form yesterday, to an extend at least. I was mightily impressed with Art Mauresque though, how easily he closed the gap to the leader and how he stormed up the hill.

Of a mark off 147 he is potentially well in here, given the five year old has had only six starts over fences yet, and took each test in his own stride. There is almost certainly more to come.

Says this is obviously an enormously competitive race and a bit of luck is sometimes required. Irish Cavalier, Buywise and Johns Spirit are others I fancy to do well here today, and you could name plenty more that have a fair shot to land the prize.

But at 14/1, despite the uneasy ground, I’m more than prepared to take a gamble on this exciting Art Mauresque, who in my book is overpriced.

Art Mauresque @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win 

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Cheltenham Preview: Triumph Hurdle Trial

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Cheltenham Festival

12.40 Cheltenham: Triumph Hurdle Trial (Grade 2), 2m

Realistically there are three standout horses in this line-up. I find it easy to discount Coo Star Sivola and Wolf Of Windlesham, although to distinguish the other three runners isn’t that easy.

However, on the fact that Oceane seems to be a good ground lover I’d be slightly concerned about the rain coming. Leaves us with the two French imports Romain De Senam and Fingertips. Both met in France earlier this year, where the Paul Nicholls recruit got the better of the new David Pipe acquisition. It was a very close race, though, only half a lengths between the pair in the end.

Romain De Senam has since been blowing away some minor opposition on his UK debut and should be fit and ready to go today, with the rain a non-issue. In contrast we don’t know whether this here is any more than a pipe opener for Fingertips. The Pipe yard doesn’t really go strongly at the moment, so that is a real concern.

However on a pure price basis I find it hard to ignore Fingertips. Previous form suggests there is not as much between the the pair as the odds suggest. I would imagine connections want to see what they have got and the horse is ready to. Ground should suit though we have to find out how he handles the track.

Fingertips @ 4/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Ripoll can progress from nursery debut

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

6.40 Kempton: Class 6 Nursery, 1m

Despite the widest draw, which is hardly an advantage, lightly raced Ripoll makes appeal at quite a big price, given that I would have expected him much shorter after an excellent Nursery debut at Wolverhampton eight days ago. The form of that particular race looks quite strong if seen in the right context, as I felt quite a number of those finishing behind the winner ran promising that day.

Ripoll doesn’t stand out pedigree wise, though he should theoretically appreciate the drop in trip. The 9.5f at Wolverhampton stretched his stamina, though he ran on well after being hampered over 1f out. Before that he travelled wide through but up with a cracking pace and must have done plenty before turning for home. So it was encouraging the positive way he saw out the race.

Off an unchanged mark I feel he has a prime chance to win this uncompetitive contest where good form is scarce and therefore his latest piece of form certainly the strongest one on offer. If he can progress slightly for the experience, he should be able to overcome the draw and land the odds.

Ripoll @ 15/2 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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Made With Love still open to improvement

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Iron Major Dundalk

3.35 Kempton: Class 3 Handicap, 1m

Second start for Made With Love for the David O’Meara yard – in the context of this race, he’s clearly the most intriguing contender. He should theoretically come on for his most recent outing at Newmarket when finishing stone last on his first start after a break as well as for the new yard.

He seemed quite a decent prospect at the start of the new flat season after he showed promise as a three year old when he landed a Kempton maiden. He started his year with a fine performance in a hot Kempton handicap then, finishing 4th while hanging a closer finish way in the final furlong.

Subsequently upped in trip he got badly hampered at a crucial stage in a Doncaster handicap when he seemed to get his act together to mount a challenge. Seemingly not a straightforward horse, he has been off the track and left John Gosden soon after.

Still Made With Love remains with potential. He’s had only six career starts and is open to some improvement with a hood fitted for the first time. This today is an easier race than what he contested mostly this year and the cushioned polytrack should suit him. If there is no underlying problem, like his breathing, he should be able to be a big runner of a mark off 88 now.

Made With Love @ 9/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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4.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Wide open race that could become a muddling affair due to a clear lack of pace. That may be helpful for some doubtful stayers, like Dutiful Son, who drops significantly in class. He has form over this sort of trip but all his wins came over shorter.

Tournament has a clear chance on past form. He showed some of his old sparkle in his last race, so is expected to run well today. He’s quite a skinny price, though. My Target is on a competitive mark, despite having only won a maiden to date. But he has to take a significant step forward if he wants to win this.

Loyalty is one of the few horses enjoying to be up with the pace. That makes him an interesting candidate. But he’s back from a break and never done particularly well as a fresh horse in the past. A big enough mark doesn’t make the task easier.

Purely from a pace angle Bold Prediction is the most interesting contender. He has been held up in recent starts but to my eye wasn’t ridden with the purpose of finishing as good as possible. He hasn’t done much this season over all and as a result dropped dramatically in the weights. Now down to a lowly mark off 77 he must rate a major danger if he takes advantage of the plum draw and reverts back to usual tactics.

Bold Prediction @ 9/2 Ladbrokes – 5pts Win

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Saturday Selections: Doncaster

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Newmarket Rowley Mile tight finish

2.55 Doncaster: Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed), 1m 2f

Considering what form is on offer you wouldn’t believe that this is a listed race. It’s quite a poor renewal in all honesty. I can see three, four with legit claims, but more than half of the field can easily be ruled out.

Two times course winner Blue Waltz makes appeal given she won a good class 2 handicap here and has also form on soft ground, although her disappointing performance subsequently at Newmarket last month is slightly concerning.

Polar Eyes finished with loads of credit in fourth in a Listed event in France the other day, following on from a good handicap success at Haydock. She excels in the mud, so can’t be discounted. Her strike rate isn’t the best, though.

Last years runner-up Princess Loulou is a main contender, if she could find back to her best. She has been below par in two starts in 2015 and can’t be trusted to bounce back today. Marco Botti’s Brandybend was 3rd in a Listed contest Newmarket last month, duely outrunning huge odds that day. She may have more to offer.

Two three year old fillies make most appeal to me: Lahayeb is the first one. Currently trading as the 7/2 favourite, she loves the mud and impressed in a class 3 handicap three weeks ago, looking well above what would normally required to win such a race. The same can be said about Bella Nouf. She was successful over course and distance here at Doni recently and won with plenty in hand, albeit only in a class 4 Handicap.

Both fillies are lightly raced enough and have plenty of scope. They’ll enjoy the conditions and are the main dangers in my book. Though Lahayeb is a rather shortish price compared to Bella Nouf who appears under appreciated here.

Bella Nouf @ 14/1 Paddy Power – 5pts Win

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3.30 Doncaster: November Handicap, 1m 4f

One last go on these big handicaps for the flat season 2015…. and I like a couple of these, actually! Some share recent form with each other, so do Esteem, Green Light and Only Orsenfoolsies when they clashed here at Don in a hot race a fortnight ago. A race of hard luck stories and all three horses where affected by getting stuck in traffic, while all three finished the race well, suggesting they could have gone much closer with a clear run.

On that evidence I am surprised to see Only Orsenfoolsies being the one almost twice the price of Esteem and Green Light today. He finished 4th that day, staying on well without being overly driven, when finally getting a run on the inside.

He enjoys soft ground and is only 3lb above his last winning mark, although it is true that a career best is required today. He may not be up to it, but let’s find out. He’ll certainly find the right conditions here.

Some more contenders to mention: Storm Force Ten is entitled to go close. He’ll enjoy this test for sure, so should be Penhill, who would have a prime chance, if not for being drawn in the car park. .

In general I find all of these hard to distinguish and believe they have all some sort of the same win chance, but Only Orsenfoolsies is a huge 20/1 price and for that reason the best value.

Only Orsenfoolsies @ 20/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Aintree: Jonjo’s second string a big player

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Aintree Grand National

1.55 Aintree: Class 2 Handicap Hurdle, 3m 149y

Intriguing to see Shutthefrontdoor back over hurdles. The former Irish Grand National winner should enjoy the conditions and trip and has done well as a fresh horse in the past, however as top weight of a mark off 146 he would have to be at his absolute very best to land this, given the last hurdle race he won was off 135. He may well be a better horse nowadays, nonetheless, it’s not an easy task.

Favourite is race fit Our Kaempfer. I was quite interested in this lad the other day at Chepstow. He ran well but was still a good deal beaten. He has to prove that he can stay this trip now, but if he does he’d be a major chance, given this is an easier race and he’s still quite unexposed.

To an extend the same goes for Broybourne. Quite a good handicapper on the the flat, winner of a 2m handicap when rated 89, he has taken well to hurdles. He has been placed in a Listed handicap Hurdle back in April and that form gives him a good chance if his stamina holds up, although he’s much higher in the mark now and will certainly need to take another step forward.

Shotavodka is quite an interesting contender. He was an excellent second on his seasonal reappearance last week and is certainly down to a handy mark judged on past performances. Question mark is the trip. He has been placed over 3m before but his best performances are all over much shorter.

Jonjo O’Neill’s second string Join The Clan has been progressive last season, winning twice in Handicap company over hurdles over three miles plus. He couldn’t match those performances when upped in class subsequently but comes back as a fresh horse now which might be the secret to him. Down to a fair mark at the moment, he’ll certainly any rain that’s falling until the start of the race.

With conditions sure to suit I think this lad has as good a chance as anybody in this wide open race. Having the assistance of excellent 7lb claimer Patrick Cowley, who has won on Join The Clan before, is also a big plus. He seems a rather huge price in my eyes and should outrun this price tag.

Join The Clan @ 14/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

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Hamelin the value in hot Kempton Listed contest

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A good winner today – The Quarterjack got home at Southwell to land the 2m Handicap. He did that really nicely after a tough battle down the home straight. Missed a perfect day unfortunately. Empress Ali ran well but could only manage 2nd place.

7.10 Kempton: Listed Race, 1m 4f

Excellent Listed contest on Kempton’s All-Weather track for a Wednesday night. Last years winner Grendisar is back to defend his crown and he can’t be faulted. He’s a classy individual on the synthetics who loves the trip and the track. In fact in ten starts at Kempton he has never been out of the money.

What speaks against him? His running style can be reason for concern. Grendisar travelles strongly but need to things fall right. He got that often enough last season but if they don’t go overly mad in front here it might be difficult to peg back one or two who get first run. He’s a very short price and his last two performances in recent weeks don’t instil too much confidence.

Grendisar will renew his feud with Fire Fighting. The Mark Johnston inmate was a close runner-up in this very same race last year but beat this rival at Chelmsford last month. He went on to land a good Listed contest at Dundalk over 11f. A mightily impressive performance.

He goes up to 12f again, a trip that can stretch his stamina to the absolute limit. He also has had an awful lot of racing and has to give weight away due his recent success – it’s a pretty tough task in my mind, nonetheless he has the class to overcome all these obstacles.

I really like Missed Call’s chance. She progressed nicely this year from winning a Class 3 Handicap at Ascot to finishing runner-up in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes. I also feel she has a nice chance on the weights here. Question mark is, despite having winning form over 12f, the trip, though. It stretches her stamina to a maxium and there is the fear that others will outstay her in this very deep contest.

Stamina concerns hanging over In The Fast Lane as well. As a lover of South African racing I’m happy to see this former winner of the Grade 1 Woolavington Stakes now racing in the UK. The mare is classy on her day, but has serious question marks about the trip. And not only that.

Due her transfer to the UK she had a very long break, for that impressed on her comeback run at Chelmsford in September, but then completely bombed out subsequently. So it’s hard to know what we get from her.

Sweet P is undoubtedly a very progressive filly who also seems to enjoy the All-Weather. Nonetheless, despite presenting herself in top form lately, she has to progress big time to land this race. Which is not impossible, given she tries the 12f trip only for the third time in her career.

You can’t leave out of the equation progressive handicapper Dartmouth. The ground was maybe too soft when we saw him the last time, but up until then he won three of his five starts in 2015. More improvement is required here now, with the All-Weather being an unknown. I’m not sure if this test is what he wants, but he is unlikely to be far away if he can translate his turf form to the polytrack.

However I’m completely sold to Hamelin. I really like his profile. He’s got not too many miles on the clock for a five year old, had only three starts this year and has previous course and distance form. He also has been in impressive lately when landing a competitive class 3 Handicap at Wolverhampton.

He was a bit off at the start but was soon rushed forward from his wide draw to lead the field. It’s true that he wasn’t particularly hard pressed, but those early antics at the start must have cost loads of energy. It was impressive to see how he kicked on from three furlongs out and had the whole field quickly on the stretch.

Yes, more is required here in this race and the weights aren’t exactly favouring him – but he has the profile of an improving horse and could easily have more to offer. He will have to, obviously, but if he can find some improvement, he has to rate a top danger for the others.

Hamelin @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts Win