2.50 Chelmsford: Class 4 – Handicap, 5f

Almaty Star was caught only in the dying stages at Lingfield earlier this month. She stays over the minimum trip with the cheek-pieces applied for a second time, able to race off the same mark.

She must have a cracking chance from the #1 draw here, even though there is tons of pace competition, it must be said. She caught the eye the last two times now, as her previous Windsor 2nd was also a strong front-running performance.

The filly has great early speed, which is vital over this course and distance, so she can utilise the draw to its fullest. She’s clearly in great form and a mark of 75 is not quite her ceiling. She ran to higher speed ratings in the past.

Obviously her win record is poor, but down to this career-lowest rating, with the top draw and a CD she finished second off 5lb higher last autumn, she’s got a prime chance in a race where few appear overly well-handicapped.

10pts win – Almaty Star @ 5/1

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4.50 Chelmsford: Class 5 – Handicap, 1m 2f

 Brassavola looks quite interesting back over this course and distance with a decent draw to attack the race from. She got quite close back in November where she was still leading at half a furlong from home.

Back then she had to overcome a wide draw and did a lot to get across and into a prominent racing position. She edged closer to the leader bit by bit and took it up entering the home straight only to get caught fairly late.

It was a somewhat similar story a few weeks ago at Lingfield where she moved forward from a wider than ideal draw, caught wide early on, before getting to the lead. She hit the home straight in front before getting tired in the final furlong.

Truth told, there are some questions about her stamina credentials over this trip. However, her pretty decent full-sister won in seriously deep ground over a mile and these last two times it was possibly the wide draw that was to her detriment.

With a better draw here, and not much pace competition, she should much easier get to the front. Blinkers fitted should her her to be sharp out of the gate too. This track can ride in favour of those up with the pace, even over these longer trips, especially when the pace is slow, it’s nearly impossible to make up ground.

The yard is in poor form, but hit the crossbar a number of times, so hopefully a turnaround is just around the corner. A good jockey booking will help too.

This family tends to do quite well on the sand, hence off a career-lowest mark  Brassavola looks more than capable of winning over this course and distance.

10pts win –  Brassavola @ 9/2