It’s a wild game of ups and downs. Last week very much on a high. Days later things look bleaker. Another blank on Saturday. 14 on the bounce the red L.

Raasel ran well, good third place, but no chance with the winner. The ride on Fiftyshadesofred didn’t make any sense. I’ll give her another chance with a better rider on board. Winforglory stayed on strongly, but too late, and it seemed he didn’t have the early speed needed up in class.

Looking back over the last week, many ran well enough, still, even got placed. I’m quite satisfied with the selections, to the most part. There’s probably two I’d like to have back. Otherwise, happy enough. The upswing will come…. hopefully sooner, rather than later.

Ay always on a day after a huge Grade 1 in South Africa, a quick note on the big race there: Charles Dickens got his redemption. He beat the older horses for the first time. And he did it pretty easily

The 3-year-old superstar colt lost his unbeaten record in the King’s Plate back in January when he was bravely taking on the best older milers in the country. He was ran down late by Al Muthana for second place.

Not so this time. Al Muthana, who was here again, and won the Gold Challenge in excellent style twelve month ago, came with a late charge once again, but it was game over by then.

The rides may have made a difference, some argued. Al Muthana had to come around wide. Charles Dickens got a dream run through on the inside. True. and yet, that’s how Al Muthana has to be ridden. He didn’t have enough late speed this time to ran home a stronger Charles Dickens.

It’s clear now that Charles Dickens is a miler. He still shows signs of early keenness. He’s still raw in the finish. He’ll never get 10 furlongs I reckon. That’s a problem if he wants to prove his greatness in his home country.

I hope, though, that connections consider a move for international races, as difficult an endevour this can be for South African horses. His options are ultimately limited at home, but he could be good enough – let’s find out – to take on the top-class milers of the world.

……….

2.35 Navan: 3yo+ Handicap, 5f

A highly competitive affair, one I would usually stay away from, especially in Ireland. But I’m somewhat desperate the give Lokada another chance as the ground is just perfect for the lightly raced filly.

Who knows how much longer the relatively dry and warm spell continues here, there comes a time decent ground is a thing of the past, and then Lokada doesn’t even need to go to post.

In saying that, the race evolves around Only Spoofing, who’s clearly been set up for this race, down to a mark of 80, he was well hidden lately and it’s clear today is “D-Day”.

No doubt on last years form he’s got a proper chance and will enjoy the going too. But he’s a 9-year-old, nonetheless. At given prices he can be opposed.

The others, like Harmony Rose, Curraheen Princess or Screen Siren and Tawazoon are real dangers on their best form. This is competitive.

Lokada has drifted out in the betting this morning. I’m not too worried about it and more delighted that she’s now a price to back.

Reportedly she needed a lot of time to learn and grow last year, but landed two 5f sprints at Dundalk in November in fine style, subsequently running with tons of credit from a wide draw at the same venue before a winter break.

She returned at Naas last month and ran a huge race in second place behind a seriously well-handicapped winner.

She was prominent on the far side, travelled strongly, possibly going best and ran home strongly up the hill for 2nd place on her side. She didn’t have a chance with winner on stands’ side, who was probably advantaged by racing on that side.

She achieved a 70 speed rating there and I was keen to back her next time at Tipperary to go one better. It was initially disappointing to see her finish a well beaten 4th only, but in hindsight it’s clear she bumped into a well-handicapped improver once again.

Also: the winner aside, she did much the best of those drawn wide and therefore ran a little bit better than the bare result would tell. Another excuse…. at some point there are none left and it is what it is.

Yet, I strongly feel her last two, perhaps taking the last Dundalk run into account as well, can be upgraded. The handicapper dropped her back to 71 (from 74), which is more than fair and gives her a huge opportunity.

As mentioned before, she ran to 70 at Naas, she also achieved a whopping 81 speed rating on the All-Weather last year. She has a low weight, possible the ideal #7 draw in this field, the track should suit and she’ll love the ground.

No excuses today? Hopefully not. Though, I become slightly concerned that since having written this piece and backed her, she continues to drift further in the betting. To a point soon, possibly, where the odds are utter nonsense. In those cases, as we all know Irish racing: if it doesn’t make sense there is a reason for it.

That’s one of the reasons I don’t bet Irish racing much. I find it even less trustworthy than low-class Britain. But here we are. I made the call, my money is down. Hopefully on a trier.

10pts win – Lokada @ 6/1