Finally a winner! The wait was long… and painful. What a nightmare over the last weeks. Thankfully Dion Baker managed to fight gamely to get his head in front when it mattered most in a thriller of a race at Brighton yesterday afternoon.
He went off a 5/2 favourite. The 4/1 I got were good value; though, of course, nothing to shout about if you burned through last years profits as quickly as I normally do through a pack of Tuc Crackers. Hopefully things turn for the better from now on….
……..
8.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Giant looks a different horse since his gelding last October. The 4-year-old showed glimpses of ability in the past, but was often too keen for his own good.
Since his reappearance at Kempton in March, where he won in impressive style from the front and achieved a career-best speed rating as well, he was able to follow-up with two more highly credible performances.
Earlier this months, once again at Kempton, he caught the eye in no uncertain terms and that performance suggested he could still be a handful of pounds ahead of his current mark, despite a subsequent rise by 2lb. That may prove lenient, though, given he was only beaten by a head and somewhat unfortunate that day.
Nearly taken out by a badly veering rival right out of the gates, he couldn’t get to lead, but got going quickly again and tracked the hot pace. Inside the final three furlongs he was switched left for effort, appeared flat footed for a few strides, before showing a superb attitude battling hard to the line.
He was only beaten by Thapa Vc, who was extremely well-handicapped that day, and who avoided the red hot early pace, sitting in midfield (goes today, too, may struggle from off the pace today).
No question, today is a deep enough race. Brasil Power with preferred headgear combination and back in form looks potentially ominous. Rajindri loves this CD, and could find herself nicely towed into the home straight. Zero Carbon drops in grade and showed good form lately.
However, none of them appear overly well-handicapped, in my view. Hence what speaks for Giant, beside that he appears still on the up and therefore likely better than a current 82 Official Rating, is his good low draw, and a pace scenario that will suit, for this naturally forward gelding.
An easy lead may or may not be on the cards, but other potential pace setters can be hit an miss with their efforts to lead and only Zero Carbon, drawn right beside Giant, may provide the only real competition.
Given he should have it easy moving forward, whether leading, or perhaps following closely, with Oisin Murphy in the saddle you can expect a proper run, especially over this course and distance (4-1-3).
The price, in fairness, is skinny enough, and right on the edge for me, as my strike rate tends to be poor, comparably to what it should be, at the lower end of prices.
Saying that I was happy enough to see 4’s able to get matched completely this morning and I’d have him about a point shorter, if I had to price up the race, simply because he’s the most rock solid, in-form selection, who’ get his race and may still be ahead of his mark.
10pts win – Giant @ 4/1 SM
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