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South Africa

Preview: 2016 Queen’s Plate

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Fasten your seatbelt – the 2016 Queen’s Plate will take you for a ride! It’s gonna be fast and furious! South Africa’s best milers; no hiding place as they’re all there to land the big price!

Last years brilliant winner Futura, currently the highest rated horse in the country, is trading as the favourite at this point in time. That doesn’t come a shock, given Futura seems well in himself after an excellent prep run in the Green Point Stakes.

He finished second behind eventual winner Captain America that day, who himself will have a good crack at it today. The son of of Captain Al used to be headstrong and keen earlier in his career, but wiser and more settled now, he’s become a proper Grade 1 horse. He’s likely to attempt to make all.

The outcome of the race could very much evolve around 2014 Durban July winner Legislate. The former horse of the year had a troubled 2015 season, but is reportedly in good shape at the moment. His record as a fresh horse is notably strong and talent wise he’s probably the best horse in South Africa; he has the speed to be a world-class miler, plus the stamina to stay and win over the demanding July trip.

Last years Derby winner Legal Eagle can’t be taken lightly either, although he’s best suited to distances beyond 1.600m and his trainer didn’t make a secret of the fact that this race is a stepping stone towards the J&B Met. However Anton Marcus jumps on board, which is a significant move.

This comes a bit a surprise given that Marcus is also associated with another leading contender, Act Of War. It’s certainly not a vote of confidence in last seasons Cape Guineas winner. Future prospects may have to do with that, so could have the bad draw that AOF has to deal with today. From a similar unkind scenario he stayed on well in the Green Point the last time, though.

Not fully to be ruled out is Summer Cup winner Mister Sabina, who overcame a troubled passage in the big Grade 1. He’s better over further ,however, and may need this run. The Met is his main target.

Only one three year old tries to take on the best in class – Mike De Kock’s Noah From Goa has been a big surprise in recent weeks and month, improving dramatically from race to race. The Dingaans and Cape Guineas winner receives plenty of weight from the older rivals, however it usually is a tough task for three year olds a to be competitive in this type of race t this point of the year.

Prediction: There should be plenty of pace in the race given that a handful of runners want to be up with the speed. Expect Captain America to cross over from his wide draw pretty soon after the start. Legislate on his heels most likely, followed by Noah From Goah. That says Futura shouldn’t be too far off either.

The set-up of the race and the longer straight on the outer course could help those having to hope to feature from off the pace. Still, I expect the race to be won by those close to the speed. That means all the top contenders are likely to be in contention when it really matters and that should make for an exciting finish.

If Legislate is at his best, and he can be as a fresh horse with his record, he’s the winner and hard to beat. In my view, if Futura and Legislate are both 100%, the later one wins. But there are the questions marks about his soundness, given he was lame only three month ago.

So is it wise to go against Futura then? Maybe not, however he’s a short enough price given the competitiveness of this race. Yes, he won this making handstands last year, but value wise I can’t ignore the fact that he has to give 5kg to exiting three year old Noah From Goa.

De Kock supplemented the gelding for the race; you simply have to take notice then. Also he seems to grow fast. I liked the look of him at the Guineas, and his performance was superb that day, finding more once hitting the front. He looks more like a grinder, but that should be a perfect fit for the way I expect this race to be run. At 9/1 Noah From Goa is too big a price to ignore for me.

Noah From Goa @ 9/1 William Hill – 5pts Win

South Africa

Vaal: Flag Of France a big price

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2.20 Vaal: MR 90 Handicap, 1000m

Intriguing contest, though it lost a bit of sparkle due to the non-runners. That’s why Bad Boy Buddy Boy is now clear favourite. Back at this track and on turf he should be a force but has to bounce back from a poor last outing on the All-Weather and has to prove he is up to his current mark.

I feel the value in this race is clearly Flag Of France. Readily available at 6/1, he is a huge price against the favourite given he loves this track and trip and is 2 wins from 4 starts over CD. He has decent form and will love the return to the minimum trip, which will give him every chance to overcome a career highest mark.

Flag Of France @ 6/1 Betfred – 5pts Win

South Africa

Preview: Champions Cup

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4.05 Greyville: Champions Cup (Grade 1), 1m 1f

Realistically a two horse race, South Africa’s two top drawers meet once again. The score is 3-1 in favour of Legislate. and the one time Futura got the better of him, was in the Queen’s Plate earlier this year when Legislate was not right as we know.

Legislate fought back form his illness, won the Gold Challenge on his return comfortably, beating Legislate in third, for whom it was merely a July prep run, though. Futura ran with loads of credit in the big one subsequently, given the massive weight he had to shoulder. While Legislate surprisingly popped up in one of the hottest sprints of the year where he finished an excellent 3rd.

The trip today should suit both down to the grounds and it will be interesting to see who is the better one. Both are exceptional horses but Legislate always strikes me as the “special one”. He may have a tactical advantage today too, he can make all from the front without a problem and use his superior speed to kick on when it matters.

At the given prices, the value clearly lies with Legislate.

Legislate @ 5/2 Coral – 10pts Win

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Kingston Mines a Threat with Blinkers

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3.00 Scottsville: Track & Ball ‘Derby'(Grade 2)

This stayers contest has been won by Hot Ticket last year in impressive fashion, when it was still held at now defunct Clairwood racecourse over half a furlong longer trip. Now at Scottsville over 2.400m, the same result is expected nonetheless. Hot Ticket is the hot favourite, and for all the right reasons.

He’s South Africa’s top stayer, 112 rated, and has a prime chance in this field with the official ratings weights very much in is favour. No doubt, he’ll be hard to beat as he should be in peak form today after two decent prep runs over shorter. The only thing that may find him out is the trip. 2.400m on quick ground is potentially not his optimum. Nonetheless, I give him a 50% chance of winning the race, given that the opposition has so much to find on the ratings.

Realistically there are only three other runners able to put a fight to Hot Ticket. Disco Al has been in good form lately and stays the 2400m trip well. He is, however, slightly below top class level and was beaten by 5.5 lengths in this race last year. This Ramsden charge is well exposed these days and while sure to run his race, is likely to fall short.

Double Clouth is an improving sort. He tries this trip for the first time and if he stays it it may well help him to progress even further – however there isn’t much in his pedigree suggesting he’ll stay it. There is pace on here and it probably will find him out.

Also on the upward has been Kingston Mines. He has progressed from low grade handicaps into a multiple Grade 2 winner in the staying division. He is likely to be setting the pace here and has top jockey Delpech in the saddle. He was disappointing in his last two starts and has a good deal to find on the ratings. Blinkers are on though, and that could well help to squeeze out a bit of improvement again.

The two three year old’s Krambabuli and Mater James should find it very tough to compete. Even so the former one has to be respected coming from a top yard with an unexposed profile. Says trip and class are against him.

Verdict: No doubt, Hot Ticket is very hard to beat here. However I feel Kingston Mines is a real threat and underestimated. He developed into a very good stayer, is a multiple Stakes winner and is likely to make all from the front with first time blinkers added. He’ll ensure to set a good pace and will try to stretch them entering the home straight.

If this turns out to be the stamina test is should be then, there are only him and the favourite likely to be suited by it. Given that we know how good Hot Ticket is, but can’t be quite sure yet whether Kingston Mine has reached his full potential, I side with this overpriced De Kock runner. If he can improve for the new headgear, he’s in for a very big performance.

Kingston Mines @10/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

South Africa

Clash Of The Titans: G1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge

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The race is on and I couldn’t be more excited. The Group 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge gives us the mouthwatering clash of South Africa’s heavyweights Legislate VS Futura. The two stars have made it through their preparations and trainer Justin Snaith is happy to let them take each other on.

Snaith, who is in the unique position to train both of them, recently said when talking about this: “I had good horses before. But these are the real deal. They would take on anything in the world – they are THAT good.”

LEGISLATE

Reigning horse of the year, reigning Durban July champ,  Guineas and Daily News winner – he’s done it all in 2014. Heading into the Queen’s Plate back in January, South Africa’s Premier Mile race, he was thought to be virtually unbeatable. Weeks before he stuffed his rivals, including Futura, in the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes, when returning from a deserved break after winning the biggest race of them all, the Durban July.

That’s when the problems started. After Aan unusually dismal performance in the Queen’s Plate it emerged that Legislate suffered from a severe lung infection. That took him out for months to get over it. He also missed his intended return to the track recently, when he injured himself while loading into the stalls.

So, how much ability can Legislate retain? Is he 100% today? According to Justin Snaith, Legislate couldn’t be any better. He’s ready to go, though it’s hard to know whether he’s back to his brilliant best. One the positive side: Legislate looked sensational in his public work, effortless floating over the ground.

What’s more, Legislate usually runs very well as a fresh horse. He always made a successful return – bar the Queens Plate race, where we know he wasn’t right. He’s also unbeaten at Greyville and clearly has the speed and turn of foot for 1.600m as a former Guineas winner.

FUTURA

A hype horse at this time last year. Futura was a massive market mover for the Durban July, South Africa’s most important race. But he wasn’t tested in Grade 1 company yet back then. He looked an emerging star – or a bubble ready to burst – whatever way you wanted to see it. But he proved his class when running out a strong third in the July, with the run of the race clearly against him. He redeemed himself soon after, landing a deserved first success on the highest level.

He hasn’t looked back since then, bar one race: When put into his place by Legislate in the Green Point Stakes. But he subsequently completed the Queen’s Plate & Met double – which is a rare feast! The handicapper reacted, put Futura’s rating up to massive 120 – which means he’s one of the top rated horses in the world now – mind you, 3lb better than Legislate!

Futura had a little break afterwards but was back as strongly as ever when winning a minor race in preparation to the Rising Sun Gold Challenge last month. The general perception is that 1.600m is not an ideal trip for him – 2.000m seems the distance. However his record over 1.600m speaks for itself. 6-4-1-1. Never been out of the money.

BEST OF THE REST

Of course this is not a two-horse-race. Ten more or less well fancied rivals try to land a blow against the two big guns. Ice Machine with Anton Marcus on board is the closest pursuer in the betting. He was an impressive winner of his prep race recently and loves the trip. Not one you want to underestimate but on bare form has has a little to find.

The rest of the field can only hope that the race turns into a muddling affair, which may not quite suit the heavyweights, and as a result they may encounter in-running trouble. There was a shock winner in this very same race twelve month ago, so it’s not quite out of the world. A sprint finish would probably suit Willow Magic most. He ran well in a big Grade 1 sprint recently but stays 1.600m.

VERDICT

I believe a Legislate at his best is the best horse in South Africa – better than Futura too. Before his injury troubles this was the general perception. He was virtually unbeatable, went into the Queen’s Plate a 9/20 chance! Over 1600m he has an advantage against Futura as well. But only if he can find back to his brilliant best.

The race will tell us if the old Legislate is back. Visually he looked superb in his work. He goes well fresh and I give him the benefit of the doubt today. He he’s almost twice as big in the betting as Futura. Convert his odds into a percental chance: 11/4 = 26.6667%.

So if I ask myself: Is Legislate a better chance in this field, if anywhere near his best? Absolutely! I’d nominate Willow Magic as the joker in the race and wouldn’t be surprised if Halve The Deficit can outrun his big price tag – although both shouldn’t be anywhere good enough if things go normal.

2.45 Greyville:
Legislate @ 11/4 Sportingbet – 10pts Win

South Africa

Assegai’s a big price on the Greyville Poly

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Newmarket Rowley Mile Winning post

2.25 Greyville: MR 95 Handicap, 1.900m

Not much going on on the domestic front so lets head to South Africa for an intriguing Handicap on the Greyville Polytrack. Some really good horses are going to post there, most notably the top weight Blance Sheet, a 3 year old gelding who tried to take on the best in Graded company recently.

He’s not been disgraced but found it much easier when dropped into Handicap company the last time when landing a good MR98. He’s up in the mark and tries a new trip today – which he failed to stay in the past – so that is a negative for the short favourite.

Lightly raced Krambambuli took on much stronger the last two. He was a fair third in the Cape Derby, but couldn’t back it up. This is easier and he is likely to get the trip, but in truth he has only won a low-grade handicap to date.

De Kock’s Trip To Rio could be interesting if he stays the 1900m trip. He was second in a 1m Listed event on the poly last year but utterly disappointing when last seen in a MR92 Handicap. He could well improve, though definitely has to so as more is required here.

I’m quite interested in four year old Assegai. He is the only course and distance winner in the field and was impressive when landing a MR 90 Handicap over CD on his penultimate run. He wasn’t disgraced when fifth in a very hot Listed event subsequently, taking on seasoned top class graded hoses. He will find this today much easier. He had a little break since then but usually does very well as a fresh horse.

He has to be at his best in order to give weight away to the smart three year olds, though with conditions very much in his favour, might well be able to do so. Top jockey is booked today – at 10/1 he looks overpriced in this field.

Assegai @ 10/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

South Africa

Preview – President’s Champions Challenge

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Exciting filly Majmu is going to post as the hot favourite in the big Grade 1 President’s Champions Challenge this afternoon at Turffontein. Unbeaten in her last three, including successin the Cape Fillies Guineas and the Empress Club Stakes, both Grade 1’s, she has obviously star potential. Trainer Mike De Kock hails her as a filly right up with the best he has ever trained – if not even better!

She is weighted to win this big Grade 1 today. She receives loads of weight as a filly against the boys as well as for her age. If she is as good as anyone thinks she is, then there isn’t too much in this field that could be dangerous to her. However first time against the boys over 2.000m is a completely alien experience for her. And that is the concern. At a very short price, I take her one…

… but only because there is a horse in the line-up which ranks among the best in the county over the 2.000m trip. That is of course Wylie Hall. The memories of his devastating demotion to second place in the biggest race of the South African racing calendar is still vivid – after a tough battle with Legislate, the stewards decided that he had interfered with the original runner-up in a way that made a difference about the outcome of the race. You could see it that way, and many did, but other opinions were voiced aplenty as well.

Anyway, the Durban July is history, Wylie Hall has moved on and made his season debut earlier this month in the Grade 2 Colorado King Stakes. He won this prep race easily, in fact couldn’t have been more impressive and is clearly in good order. Naturally he should improve for the run.

His excellent track record means he is expected to go really well today. I see him as the only real danger to Majmu. He has to give 4.5kg away to the filly. But age, sex as well as proven class over track and trip are fairly reflected in the weights in my mind. At 5/1 he looks the value in this race.

President’s Champions Challenge (Grade 1)
Wylie Hall @ 5/1 Sportingbet – 5pts Win

South Africa

Saratoga Dancer’s ready to strike at Greyville!

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I believe odds-on favourite Jet Explorer can be beaten here. He’s a fair Stakes performer, and his 4th in the Queen’s Plate is a big piece of form, though he hasn’t won in a long time and usually stays on from off the pace only beating tired horses, which can sometimes look spectacular from a visual point of view, but doesn’t mean that he is getting any closer to putting his head in front when it really matters. That says this race represents a significant drop in class and theoretically he’s the horse they all have to beat. However he probably won’t be 100%, as this is only a stepping stone and prep for bigger targets down the road.

There are some other good horses in the race here, but without a shadow of a doubt the most intriguing runner is lightly races Saratoga Dancer. He receives loads of weight from most rivals here and that should ensure that he’s well in, as he is clearly a better horse than his current rating of 78 in my mind. This will be his second run after a break as well after being gelded and his reappearance over 1.200m in a hot race was very promising last month.

He finished a fine third that day, less than two lengths beaten by Grade 1 winning Kochka while receiving only 3.5kg from this 105 rated top class individual. Kochka wasn’t 100% that day, but so wasn’t Saratoga Dancer, who also got a very light hands and heels ride but stayed on nicely over a trip short of his best. He clearly got ability and needs further. Up over 1.600m now, he’s got a massive chance to win.

7.15 Greyville: Pinnacle Stakes (3YO plus)
Saratoga Dancer @ 10/1 Sportingbet – 5pts win  

South Africa

Tuesday Night Quickie

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Quick Tip

One late selection for the night racing at Turffontein – the last race on the card, a rather poor maiden, looks interesting. The favourite Odd Rob is a very short price here in my mind. One has to assume that he improves dramatically for his recent outing. He finished a good runner-up after a long lay-off and had been gelded before, so indeed he should come on today, but the step up in trip looks a bit of a concern. His lightly raced profile gives him an ideal chance though, if he can find a bit improvement and stay the trip, as the opposition looks weak. But he is still way too short for this sort of race.

Equally lightly raced overcame big odds to run a fair third on debut. He may progress while Woody Glow could improve for the step up in trip. But those races often produce some strange results and longs-hot Twenty Eight Nine might sneak in for the placings here.

He didn’t show anything in his first three starts, but this is his third run after gelding, and sometimes this needs a bit until improvement kicks-in. He tries 2.000m for the first but should relish this new trip on pedigree. Interesting is the jockey booking with Johnny Geroudis who is red hot at the moment and is riding here for red hot trainer Alec Laird. I’ve seen worth 66/1 shots in my life.

8.45 Turffontein: Maiden Plate
Twenty Eight Nine @ 66/1 Bet365 – 2.5pts EW

South Africa

Strydom value on Leeuloop Jet at Vaal

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The betting market suggests that this a widen open race with plenty of chances, and indeed, that is the case. Though I can drill down the field to a handful of runners with realistic chances to go close. Favourite Orchestrated will be one of them. He won over course and distance last month and had a couple of runners in this field behind him. A swing in the weights and a five pound higher mark make life tougher though. He found 2.450m too far subsequently, dropping back to 1.700m will surely suit. He’s a fair favourite and a fair price.

The only three year old in the race, Kingmambos Legacy has a very light weight and that must give him a chance, as well as you always have to respect De Kock’s runners. But he hasn’t shown anything in six starts that suggests he is up to this standard. He also has been campaigned over further and may find this trip too sharp. Tee Jay Ar finished 3rd behind Orchestrated the last time. A 2.5kg swing in the weights can help to get closer, but the trip is a worry. His best is over shorter and he may find this too far once again.

Talented Eurakilon loves this track and has fair form in the book. But his problem is that he gets going way too late on too many occasions. He has an obvious chance if he can produce his finish earlier, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Lightly raced Thatho Magetique is an interesting horse. He has fair form to offer and may be able to improve a bit. A light weight gives him a chance but it remains to be seen how he fares for the step up in class against much stronger rivals.

Exposed Noble Star has plenty to find on ratings, however a very light weight of 52kg gives him a chance to be in with a shout. He’s been consistent lately in lower grades but hasn’t won in ages. He shouldn’t be good enough, though the weight is in his favour. Zanzibar Man goes well at this track and wasn’t too far beaten by Orchestrated last month, swing in the weights with this rival gives him a competitive chance, though he has hit the crossbar a bit too often and his last win dated back almost a year in lower class.

Dark horse could be Leeuloop Jet. A good deal beaten by Orchestrated the last time, he usually loves track and trip as he is 2 from 3 over course and distance. He’s coming down in the weights and rated to be competitive today with conditions very much to suit. He was only a lengths beaten on his penultimate run by a lightweight, a repeat of that form should see him going close. Interestingly top jockey Piere Strydom gets the leg up, which must mean that a strong run is expected. Strydom has a 24% strike rate with trainer Moffatt and steered Leeuloop Jet to two wins last season. So to see him up again is a confidence boost. Leeuloop Jet is a 9/1 chance which looks too big and the value in this field.
2.35 Vaal: MR 92 Handicap, 1.700m
Leeuloop Jet @ 9/1 Bet365 – 5pts win