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Betting

Saturday Selections: 6th July 2024

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This weekend is always one of my favourite racing weekends of the year – the Durban July, Eclipse Stakes and the German Derby. As a racing fan it’s glorious.

The pick of the lot for me personally is the July. My favourite flat race in the entire international racing calendar. Such an intriguing puzzle to solve, being the Grade 1 Handicap it is, bringing the Classic generation and the best of the older horses together.

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3.35 Sandown: Group 1 – Eclipse Stakes, 1m 2f

All the excuses made for City Of Troy’s poor showing in the Guineas seemed spot on as the hype turned real when the son of Justify demolished the Derby field at Epsom.

It was one of the most impressive Derby performances I’ve seen, undoubtably. He had to overcome a less than ideal #1 draw and had to come further back than you would have wanted. He still managed to win – not just win, he sprinted home in the closing stages, compared to all his rivals.

Stamina clearly came to the fore as he outstayed all his main rivals thanks to a strong, sustained effort from four furlongs out. He was a different horse to the one seen at Newmarket, where he never seemed happy at all.

In this years renewal of the Eclipse City Of Troy is the outstanding favourite, with his main rival in the market having finished 8+ lengths behind him at Epsom.

Saying that, Sandown over 10 furlongs poses a completely different test to the Derby run at quirky Epsom. No question, City Of Troy likely has all the tools to succeed here as well. But there is that nagging doubt in my mind, given what we saw at Newmarket.

The fast early pace seemed to take him off his feet that day, more than anything. Whereas at Epsom, it wasn’t an overly taxing gallop, and he had plenty of time to settle and eventually relax.

Given his stable mate Hans Andersen will likely move forward and then tries to set the ideal tempo, it could go all just perfectly to plan… unless the likes of Ghostwriter or perhaps See The Fire spoil the party.

They could press for the lead as well. Both can be quite keen certainly Ghostwriter enjoys going forward forward, while See The Fire, keen over a mile, may want to get on with things over this new trip. Surely both wouldn’t want a sedate pace, and leave it up to Aiden O’Brien’s pace maker to decide their fate.

If there’s a a bit of a pace battle early on, and as a result over this shorter trip City Of Troy may not have the luxury of relaxing early on, I can see him being vulnerable. But only then. No doubt, the rain has helped and enhanced his overall chances.

The aforementioned Ghostwriter – fourth in the 2000 Guineas and the French Derby is an intriguing runner. He’s been running consistently to a high level and remains unexposed over this trip. The rain is a question mark, although he did well on heavy in the French Derby.

The 4-year-old Al Riffa is a frustrating sort, though with the rain coming, may enjoy this specific test over this course and distance and remains a relatively lightly raced colt with possible upside.

They all will have to improve significantly to get anywhere near to City Of Troy, if he translates his Epsom form the Eclipse. In saying that, if he doesn’t there’re alternatives.

The most intriguing rival should prove Dancing Gemini, though. Obviously I backed him the last two times, and still remember with agony how he just came close to win the French Guineas at Longchamp, if not for a shocking ride/tactical decision in that race.

In mind it’s clear that Dancing Gemini was the last two times seriously unfortunate not to finish closer to the winner than he eventually did. Hence I’m delighted to see McMonagle replaced in the saddle. He’s one of the worst judges of pace (in my unqualified view as armchair jockey). Kieran Shoemark is a significant upgrade.

While Dancing Gemini stayed on strongly at Longchamp, he didn’t looked like getting home at Epsom over 12 furlongs. One could argue, though: the way the race panned out for him had a lot to with the fact that he didn ran on to finish in the money.

Saying that, perhaps he had to be ridden as patiently as he was to have any chance to finish the race well. Yet, trailing in last position for a majority of the race was a wasted opportunity from a good draw after having a fine start to the race as well.

From his position so far back he had to use a lot of energy to make progress, quickening right into the fastest part of the race, while having to go wide and enduring interference around Tattenham Corner.

Despite all of this, remarkably Dancing Gemini still finished third fastest over the last three furlongs. It was a serious performance from a seriously talented colt.

It’s not rocket science to conclude the drop to 10 furlongs will be a positive for the colt though. He showed speed for a mile in Group 1 company while finishing strongly over that trip, and did well enough over 12 furlongs, without looking like properly staying it.

The nagging doubt that persists is whether he’s a horse that simply catches the eye, always promising to take the next step, without ever truly making it. He’s yet to run a three-figure speed rating, while catching the eye for various reasons in all his prior starts as well.

At this point in time I remain a believer. Believing that Dancing Gemini can improve for experience, for the trip and the track. If that’s the case, I do believe he’ll give COT certainly a proper race in the closing stages.

When writing this yesterday I thought somewhere around 8 or 9 would the price to get him; waking up this morning, as the ground turned soft, seeing much bigger than that on the Exchanges surprised me. In fact, his best form comes with juice in the ground, so that, I feel, can only enhance his chances today.

10pts win – Dancing Gemini @ 14/1 (SM)

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3.00 Greyville: Grade 1 – Durban July, 1m 3f

This looks as open a renewal of the Durban July as there has been for a while. Mike De Kock said on preview night he feels the three-year-olds have the upper hand these days, but personally I’m not so sure.

From a handicapping perspective not too many horses scream “well in” but to De Kock’s point, 3-year-old colt Green With Envy has the makings of a fair favourite and on the basis of Weight For Age.

The way he won the Daily News 2000 when last seen where took the scenic route around the final bend, coming from well off the pace, was mightily impressive. There is every chance he’ll get the additional distance and can improve again, especially at a track he’s 3 from 3.

The danger is the whether he’ll get a good trip. Green With Envy is usually ridden stone cold, one who’s winning his races thanks to a devastating turn of foot.

Two issues with that in the July: it’s a big 18-runner field. He’s never encountered that. It’s a different beast compared to winning a 9-runner Cape Derby with plenty of space.

He may not get a perfect trip, and crucially, a possibly sedate enough pace may see his turn of foot blunted as he’ll have to quicken into fastest part of the race, having to make up a lot of ground, potentially.

Dolphin’s Cup Trial winner Oriental Charm is another dangerous 3-year-old, if he can stay the trip. He likes this track, won the Group 3 Trial nicely, was a strong runner-up in the Grade 2 1900 and will move forward, likely enjoying the run of the race.

Saying that, stamina is a question, given he’s yet to win beyond 9 furlongs and seemed to run out of gas in the Cape Derby.

Last years impressive July winner Winchester Mansion enjoyed the perfect race twelve months ago, as well as the perfect preparation leading up to the big race.

A bigger weight, far from a perfect preparation, he’d need everything to go absolutely right on the day to see him go back to back.

Obviously you can’t dismiss last years runner-up See It Again who travelled like the winner with 200m to go, but ultimately got outstayed by Winchester Mansion in a thriller to the line.

He’s been running to strong form earlier this year in hot races, but only was seen once since January in preparation, suggesting not all went totally to plan. On the other hand, that “prep run” four weeks ago was an excellent 3rd in the Grade 1 Gold Challenge.

He’s got to defy top-weight here and that adds to the difficulty, as does his hold-up running style if the pace is slow.

Second highest weight in the race Royal Victory can’t be discounted after winning the Grade 1 Champions Challenge back in April. He raced only twice over 10 furlongs, and won two Grade 1’s. If he can stretch out over the extended trip here, he must go close.

This years Met winner Double Superlative gets the assistance of Danny Muscutt once again, who’s flying in for this race. The talk is that he’s a little short of peak fitness, though I’d be more worried about the trip.

Lightly raced Barbaresco was badly interfered with in the Daily News, was hanging in the home straight as well, and yet he stayed on the extremely well in the closing stages.

He should get home over the extended July trip, may have more to offer and could be ridden a bit closer to the pace this time from the #2 draw. He’s a real chance and the 3-year-old I’d fancy most today.

However, in my view, they all have to beat Justin Snaith’s gelding Future Swing. The son of Futura, is the pick of South Africa’s superstar jockey Richard Fourie, and that’s a vote of confidence in itself.

Snaith has been incredibly positive about Future Swing, who enjoyed a perfect prep, with the July as his target this season: a lovely comeback run in April, followed by staying on strongly to land the Grade 2 1900 here at Greyville over 9.5f.

He’s not an unexposed horse, with 18 starts and 6 wins on his CV. However, he’s one, you could argue, who had this specific day in mind for a long time, having been saved somewhat to not show the handicapper his true class, especially over these sort of trips.

In his three seasons he raced only three times beyond 9 furlongs: there was the aforementioned Grade 2 victory, and there was a Listed success over 10 furlongs as well as back in January the ultra impressive win in the Grade 3 Chairman’s Cup over 1m 4.5f.

He’s got the speed for shorter trips and the stamina to see out the July distance without a problem. A gelding who comes into his own now as he gets older, having strengthened up significantly. Versatile, with the top rider on board, a lovely draw in #4 to move forward from, with Snaith saying they’ll ride him positively.

Yes, from a pure handicapping perspective he’s giving kilos away to th likes Oriental Charm and Without A Question. But the July is a different race and trip. I fancy him to be a stronger stayer than those two, no matter the weight.

If the pace isn’t too hot, that will ensure he’s going to be in a prime position and whatever way it pans out I can see the scenario that at the top of the straight he’s send on to win the race with his superior stamina seeing him hard to catch.

10pts win – Future Swing @ 10/1 (SM)

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4.00 Beverley: Class 5 – Handicap, 1m 2f

Giselles Defence obviously has a huge chance being able to run off the same 71 mark that saw him win comfortably at Epsom three days ago. Saying that, this is a different track, and the ground possibly faster than he wants it, given the overall profile.

Much more appeal makes God Of Fire coming off a superb seasonal reappearance after changing yards and having been gelded during his absence.

He was an excellent runner-up at Salisbury three weeks ago and should improve for the run, his second for the Kubler yard as a gelding.

That day he was quickly out of the gates, chased the pace but looked still quite fresh as he was hanging around the bend. He was a little bit flat footed and not ideally placed on the inside, also hanging ever so slightly, at a crucial stage of the race between 3 and 2 furlongs from home, where the eventual winner made his decisive move.

God Of Fire eventually found his stride in the closing stages and finished the best in the final furlong, in fact. That was strong race, I thought, and the winner a good one. Only 2lb up for the run, is possibly lenient.

Jim Crowley in the saddle today for a yard in strong form, in a race where the pace could fall into his lap, the wider than normally ideal draw won’t be an issue. God Of Fire should get an easy way toward the front and could be placed in prime position.

10pts win – God Of Fire @ 4/1

Betting

Durban July 2023 Preview

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One of my favourite races: A Grade 1 Handicap, an intriguing puzzle to solve every year – South Africa’s biggest race.

The 2023 renewal of the Durban July evolves all around favourite See It Again. A rock solid favourite with a solid draw.

The Cape Derby winne,r who beat superstar colt Charles Dickens in that race earlier this year, enjoyed a perfect prep with a fine runner-up performance in the World Sports Betting Guineas and a subsequent commanding victory in the Daily News 2000, both runs at Greyville.

That Daily News 2000 success is the standout piece of form and one would think he’ll be able to bring this form to the next level as he takes on older rivals for the first time.

He possesses a nice turn of foot and excellent cruising speed. Exactly what you need in the July. He looks competitively weighted as well with 65.5kg on the back.

Question marks I have: does he see out the trip on softish ground and will he find himself in too much trouble when it matters most? He’s not a straightforward colt.

Recent Dolphins Cup Trial winner Winchester Mansion is an obvious candidate, thank to that brilliant 3.5 lengths success last month.

A good #4 draw, he has a lot of finishing speed and could be well placed. He won over 2400m in the past, yet on softish ground, with a decent pace expected, in a highly competitive field, he may lack the required stamina over the July trip.

Justin Snaith #1 seems to be Without Question with Richard Fourie picked the son The United States.

He was twice beaten by See It Again already over 2000m. Although, that was on level weights. One feels he’s been brought along with the July very much in mind and he’s dangerous if he stays the 2200m distance.

The same can be said for 3-year-old Pacaya from the same stable. He’ll love the ground, has course form and is highly progressive.

On breeding he’s got a solid chance to stay the trip as well and there’s surely more to come. The #12 draw isn’t a worry and he’ll be a danger if he can take another step forward.

Last years third and probably Mike De Kock’s best chance is Safe Passage. I was sweet for a long time on him, and still believe he can run a strong race.

His 2022 run warrants an upgrade and with a clear run he has a shout with top man Christophe Soumillon in the saddle. He’ll need a bit of magic from the #14 draw.

Increasingly I begin to wonder weather Safe Passage is in love with this track, despite his Daily News 2000 success last year, though. One also has to question whether he has improved since last year. A bigger weight, difficult draw. Not sure there is much juice in his current price.

The other De Kock runner Dave The King has been talked about as a “dark horse”, although not so dark anymore when prominent racing people give him a huge shoutout.

His form gives this progressive 3-year-old a strong chance to feature prominently in the closing stages, if he can stretch out over the 2200m.

If the pace isn’t on, his chances increase plenty fold and 16s could look huge. He’s got a 100% record with a bit of give in the ground as well.

SA Classic winner Son Of Raj will stay every inch of the distance today. Whether he can bring his best form to Greyville is the question mark. He was disappointing the Daily News 2000 and may prefer the longer straight of Turffontein.

Rascallion may not be good enough against this opposition. Puerto Manzano has never looked really home at Greyville.

Well rested Billy Bowlegs comes here as a fresh horse and has question to answer on trip and ground. He has some strong form in defeat, though, and could go close with any improvement.

Perhaps unfortunate in the Met earlier this year, nonetheless hard to fancy over this trip is Pomp And Power. A highly talented individual, but equality enigmatic.

Veteran Do It Again is here for his final dance. Twice he’s won the July in the past. A true superstar of South African racing, still managed to finish a gallant 4th last year. He shouldn’t be good enough against younger rivals, though.

Two fillies that take on the boys today are of serious interest to me:

Rain In Holland is the recent Woolavington winner here at Greyville. She kicked clear in the final furlong, finding more and more as the race went on. She looks like crying out for an additional furlong.

An uncomplicated filly, she can move forward, travel, track a pace, kick and she loves it at Greyville.

She is incredibly tough and gutsy. A 2-11-4 record speaks for itself. Six runs in 2023 already is somewhat unusual for a fancied runner in the July. However, since February she ran only three times, which seems to have been an ideal prep.

Her form clearly stands up well. A strong and slightly unlucky third in the Grade 1 Champions Challenge, she landed the Woolavington in super style last time.

The weights aren’t quite in her favour, nonetheless I feel she is totally underestimated here in the betting. The top man on board, he’ll likely move forward from the #17 draw, and could overcome this perceived negative quickly.

If she finds a good spot, not caught wide early, you can be sure she’ll go down only for a seriously hard fight. There won’t be many in this field that find more when the final furlong marker is approached.

The other filly I feel is clearly overpriced is Woolavington runner-up Time Flies. She is highly progressive as a 4-year-old and still lightly enough raced to find more improvement.

She’s also quite uncomplicated, likes to be forward, and has the #3 draw to get that prominent position early on. Form wise she has to improve and take it to the next level, however she has answered all calls recently.

A fine winner of the Listed East Coast Cup over 10 furlongs at Greyville, she took her form to the next level in the Woolavinton.

Her Woolavington run warrants a huge upgrade given the tremendous progress she made from 5 furlongs out on the widest outside to hit the front in the closing stages, before she tired and still managed to hold on for 2nd place.

Whether she truly gets 2200m remains to be seen. Although, the full-brother stayed 2400m – so there’s more than just faint hope. She’s better off on the weights with Rain In Holland today as well.

5pts win – Rain In Holland @ 17/1
5pts win – Time Flies @ 35/1

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Betting

Durban July Preview 2022

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It’s D-Day! Durban July Day. The first Saturday in Jule – time for South Africa’s biggest race. It’s also the ever exciting clash of the younger versus the older. 2022 shapes as the most compelling renewal of this special battle.

Last years winner Kommetdieding is here to defend his crown. A year older, a year wiser? Certainly a few kilos heavier. A featherweight of 53kg carried him to victory twelve month ago. 7 Kilos more, about 15lb more to carry today doesn’t make it an easy task to go back to back.

He didn’t have an ideal prep leading into the July, but showed his class when winning the Cape Town Met, the premier Weight-For-Age contest, over 2000m earlier in January. He also impressed in the public gallops this week.

The 2021 runner-up Linebacker is here too. He ran a huge race in defeat. Although, he seemed to run out of energy in the final 100 metres. Nine furlongs just stretches him to the max.

He hasn’t won in over year, but ran well against tough competition. He comes into the race with a good weight and will be a huge runner. A possibly slow pace will be to his benefit.

Two-times July champion Do It Again is now a 7-year-old. Can he do it again? He was desperately unlucky last year. He looks in great shape and should run another strong race.

Many argue Pomp And Power is the most talented horse in South Africa at the moment. Watching him win the Cape Derby earlier this year certainly leaves a lasting impression.

He ran with plenty of credit in defeat in the Guineas and Daily News 2000 too. There is only one big problem: he’s got a mind of his own. He can pull his races away in the first couple of furlongs, as he’s done now a number of times lately.

There will be a lack of pace today and that is a real concern. In the gallops this week he looked as unruly as ever and it’s hard to see him lasting the trip. If the Snaith team somehow found a magical fix in the last few days to get him drop his head him he wins today. It’s hard to see, though.

Aragosta is one of the four chances for Mike De Kock. A talented 3-year-old. A Grade 1 winner over further than the July trip. He hang his chances away in the Daily News when last seen. But he impressed how he won the SA Derby and is likely to come on for the recent run.

His speed rating is one of the lowest coming into this race but he’s got the #1 draw and should be able to be in the right place at the right time when the field turns for home. He was my ante-post selection at 16/1 but having been unable to back him with any bookie who offered early odds I have to leave alone him today, now that he’s significantly shorter.

Jet Dark has top-class form over shorter. He ran on well in the Gold Challenge from off the pace after pulling quite hard early on. I struggle to see the appeal stepping up to 11 furlongs, though. He looks a miler, at best can push out to 10 furlongs, but the additional distance will be a struggle.

Al Muthana produced a career best in the Gold Challenge to beat strong opposition thanks to a nice turn of foot. If he can stay the additional furlong he is in with a huge chance. De Kock said they will “ride him for luck”. I’m not sure luck is enough to carry him to victory.

The filly Sparkling Water is well fancied after a narrow defeat in the Champions Challenge back in April. She travelled notably well that day and didn’t quite get the clearest of runs. But ultimately she is what she is and doesn’t look classy enough over this shorter trip I feel, especially with the expectation of a slow pace surely not playing to her strengths.

The winner of the Champions Challenge, Astrix, is an interesting longshot here again, but ultimately he is the price he is for a good reason.

The talk of town is Hoedspruit as potentially the best handicapped horse in the race. He lacks the class of the best and was found under WFA terms on the big occasions. But the July is a Handicap and that makes him a compelling runner.

He ran well in the Met against the best older horses giving tons of weight away on ratings. He didn’t stood a real chance but didn’t get the best of runs either that day and finished easily in 6th only 4.25 lengths beaten.

He meets the likes of Kommetdieding and Linebacker on much better terms today, receiving lumps of weight. He won a Grade 2 over 9 furlongs earlier this year and was seen after the Met only once, for his July prep. He caught the eye when dropping back to a mile and producing a lovely change of gear from the back of the field to finish much the strongest.

Justin Snaith clearly protected his handicap mark this season, always having the July in mind. He’s not a superstar, but clearly tremendously well-handicapped if one believes he can improve by a couple of pounds.

The dark horse of the race is Airways Law. He only got into the race yesterday. He was first reserve after Zapatillas became a non-runner. He won the designated Cup Trial in June, having improved quite dramatically starting out as a 68 rated handicapper only in October last year.

He won three on the bounce, having ran mostly on the Greyville polytrack, where he produced some stunning performances thanks to a potent turn of foot.

Switched to turf for the Dolphins Cup Trial he prevailed in fine style, bringing his form to the next level. Subsequently supplemented for the July, he missed the cut initially as the Handicapper didn’t award him a rating high enough to get into the field. Now he’s here, racing off 53kg. He’s effectively out of the weights given his official mark of 108, though.

Certainly no dark horse is favourite Safe Passage. His ultra-impressive Daily News 2000 victory propelled him to the top of the market. Far from fully tuned up, as De Kock alluded to before the race, he clearly surprised his trainer that day and one could not be impressed with his rapid acceleration in the closing stages of the Grade 1 contest over 2000 metres.

Many wonder what can he do if fully fit? He showed plenty of talent winning the Dingaans as a 2-year-old and the Gauteng Guineas earlier this year.

The son of Silvano keeps improving all the time and even though he has to give 1.5kg to the other 3-year-olds he looks very much capable of being even further ahead of them. He is the favourite for all the right reasons.

There are a few question marks over the trip, though. Whether he fully stays the additional furlong remains to be seen. His sire gives him a chance. His dam raises questions. The fact the pace won’t be blistering will give him every chance to do so, nonetheless.

Selection:
From the older horses Linebacker makes the most appeal. He looks prepped all season long for the July. Safe Passage is the most likeliest winner in my book, nonetheless.

But from a betting perspective I bet the risk and possible reward that Hoedspruit is a bit better than his 116 rating. The son of 2014 July winner Legislate has to find a bit of improvement, there is no question about it. But the swing in the weights is very much in his favour if he can. He is a big, strong, galloping horse. He can travel and he can accelerate.

I’ halve my stake, though, because I’m sweet on Airways Law, too. I was hoping he would get in to the July, and thankfully he did. He has to improve even more so than Hoedspruit. But he’s quite unexposed over this trip and on turf. He’s a son of Legislate, too.

I simply love a strong traveller. And he is certainly that. But he also finds tons when asked to go and win a race. This lad looks potentially a bit special. Granted, he has a lot to find with the best. He may not be good enough. It’s risk and reward.

5pts win – Hoedspruit @ 14/1
5pts win – Airways Law @ 30/1

South Africa

Big Race Preview: Durban July 2018

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South Africa’s most prestigious race intrigues year after year with a a massive field size including at least two handful of runners you can all see playing their part in the outcome of the race. A tricky contest to work out and one where favourites have a hard time.

The winner paid 17/1 or bigger the last three editions alone, and the last two years no single figure priced horses even made it into the money. Tactics pay an important part but the pace angle is one that used to gather little traction in the discussions leading up to the big race in the past, I feel.

Different this time. It’s the discussion topic number one. A muddling affair is feared. That will make life tough for those who come from behind naturally or those who end up in rear due to their wide draw.

It also poses a difficult decision for those jockey sitting on horses who need a proper stamina test but who are drawn wide or who wouldn’t naturally like to be too close to the pace.

Either way, the hot favourite African Night Sky from the powerful Justin Snaith yard may well be the most talented individual in the race but is clearly a price to forget. He stays the trip and had an excellent preparation, however his tendency to miss the break on occasions plus the need to be dropped in will make life incredibly tough for the four-year old gelding.

My eyes are firmly set on his stable mate Made To Conquer, instead. What can go wrong with a name like that?! In seriousness, this supremely talented son of Dynasty has been coming through the ranks, improving bit by bit while showing excellent desire combined with the ability to change gear.

Made To Conquer has been winning four on the trot. Albeit largely in much lower grade. The progressive gelding took his time, though since September last year he won six of his seven starts and showed a step up in class to graded company isn’t a problem when landing the Grade 3 Stirrup Cup off a big weight. Officially only a head between himself and multiple Stakes winner Strathdon, Made To Conquer held the stable mate under a hands and heels ride rather easily.

A step up to the highest level is only the right consequence. Made To Conquer is a staying type. He already won over 2.500 meters. So, dropping down to the 2.200 meters in the July is a slight question mark, particularly in the light of the predicted pace.

That says, despite a wider than ideal draw, it is likely that Jeff Lloyd will make plenty of use of the featherweight and the stamina his mount possesses and march forward early on to be close enough to the pace and take it up if needed. This is as much as he said himself: he ain’t gonna sit around.

If he holds true to this then Made To Conquer will surely be in the right position – which nearly always in the July is closer to the pace than too far off. Lloyd can send him on his way hitting top gear entering the home straight confidently knowing the gelding will stay all day long and clearly relishes having a fight on hands too.

For Jeff Lloyd it would bring an incredibly career in the saddle to a fairytaile ending. The 56 year old has never won the July despite being a six-times South African champion jockey. It’s going to be one last hurray before retirement beckons right after.

Selection:
10pts win – Made To Conquer @ 9/1 Sky