Be Lucky was lucky yesterday at Pontefract. He won the race in a photo and ensured it was another day in profit – albeit a very small one. Byzantium was a non-runner.
7.25 Chelmsford: Conditions Stakes, 1m
Strange little race. Hard to know what to expect from any of these. There is hardly and positive form on offer, and the unknown factor of the Chelmsford polytrack is another point adding to the intrigue of this race.
By no means I can have the favourite here. Yes, Algaith is a 3yo and may have an advantage through weight for age but he hasn’t shown enough to warrant him backing at a short price, considering the trip may just too far him after all.
Maftool might enjoy the deep surface here. Hard to know whether he is in the same form as he was at Meydan earlier this year. He also has to give weight away, which is never easy for 3yo against older horses.
Hard to fancy Calling Out either. You have to hope for plenty of improvement. Castlelyons may surprise. But the value here is certainly Baltic Night, who has performed with credit on the All-Weather in the past, usually does well on a deeper surface on turf and has been mostly competitive this year. 1m can stretch his stamina, but this small field should play perfectly to his strength.
Wind operations certainly have been a big topic at Cheltenham last week after a couple of horses produced some dramatic improvement of form at the Festival following this type of surgery. Most prominent example was World Hurdle winner Cole Harden, who gamely stormed up the hill at the end of a three mile race, when before he would probably have stopped at the final furlong marker.
Not that there is anything wrong with that. Improved performance and well-being of the horse is the intention of such a surgical intervention. However there is a question of how horse racing fans and punters are informed about it. The logic says, since a wind operation can have a drastic effect on a horses performance, it’ll be clearly stated in the race card or at least somewhere in the profile of the horse on the official BHA website.
Guess what, that is not the case. Of course not. We know that. Therefore many people were stunned about one or another performance last week. Right now you have to read carefully through trainer quotes in all the different publications in order to find this kind of information. Sometimes it is more widely known, because it is a bigger race and connections made it public. Sometimes it is not so well known and only becomes public in the aftermath.
Same applies to gelding operations. Not so relevant in jump racing, but very much on the flat. A gelding operation can have a dramatic effect on the performance of a horse. It can influence temperament and attitude. We know that. Many racing jurisdictions worldwide make the date of gelding available in racecards. For example here in South Africa:
The same sort of detail is not available in British Racing at the moment. And that despite – one would think so at least – racing in the UK is much more advanced if it comes to data and the availability of data. But if it comes to such important things as the gelding date…. well it is just not there.
Now, the recent incidents from the Cheltenham Festival made me curious to find out what the BHA actually has to say about this. Well, judge for yourself – this is what they replied to my questions about the availability of either wind op and gelding date – BHA Response:
[…] “I’m afraid due to a technical fault the sex of the horses on the BHA website is missing, the IT team are working to get his corrected as quickly as possible. However you can see that status on the Racing Post’s profiles (http://www.racingpost.com/ ).
I’m afraid at this stage we are not able to include the date of a gelding on the horse profile page.
I can confirm that the British Horseracing Authority has been considering the proposal to make public wind operations. After initial consultation it is clear this development is not going to be straightforward and wider consultation is required.
We are progressing this with trainers, Weatherbys and BHA’s Veterinary Committee with a view to developing a mechanism for effective and meaningful information sharing on the matter.
I’m afraid at this point we can give no clearer detail or timeframe, until the consultation is further down the line”. […]
Good to hear that they consider changes – but if I’m not completely wrong, then this wasn’t the first time that this kind of thing was brought up. It looks to me though, much more like a lack of willingness to make changes actually happen. In my mind it’s hard to understand why other racing jurisdictions can provide this vital information, but in a powerful racing nation as the UK or even Ireland, it is just not there. Why is it so difficult to import gelding dates to a data base? if you want it, you can do it.
Of course it is understandable that not every racing nation can offer such an enormous data base like Singapore or Hong Kong usually do (check it out, it’s amazing. every workout, every medical treatment, absolutely everything is stated there!) – but key details, like gelding date or wind operation, should simply be part of the standard package.
Happy Birthday KAUTO STAR – a true racing legend! A winner of 5 King George’s and 2 Cheltenham Gold Cup’s, he is a horse for the ages! I only saw him once in flesh, which was last year at the Festival when he took part in a parade.
Personally I’m not entirely sure if the dressage thing is really what he wants, but on the other hand it is great to see him having a fulfilled post-racing-life with purpose and exercise.
Cheltenham is over, and one could feel a bit empty, but the racing world never sleeps! So let’s have a quick round-up of what happened this last weekend.
American Pharoah has been shaking up the Kentucky Derby ante-post market. An impressive success in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes saw him jumping right at the top of the market. Trained by Bob Baffert – who also has the second favourite Dortmund in his barn – American Pharoah was last seasons champion two year old in the US, though injuries towards the end of the season put his Derby credentials on hold. He’s back no – see for yourself how impressive he was on Saturday:
Warren’s Veneda has been really progressive over the last couple of weeks, and her rise to the top of the mares division didn’t stop this weekend when she landed the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes in great fashion. She tried the 1 1/8 mile trip for the first time, but clearly saw it out.
The Hangman was once a top class juvenile, but injuries prevented him from fulfilling his potential. Nursed back to form, he has now won two on the bounce after he took the Grade 3 Kings Cup at Greyville on Sunday – which is the place of his biggest triumph -here’s were he won the Grade 1 Premiers Champion Stakes as a juvenile back in 2012. Ridden to perfection stalking a slow pace on Sunday, he held on gamely to fend off the challenge by runner-up Candy Moon. The second may be the one to take out of this as he came from well off the pace, and has been a bit unlucky lately. A big win is potentially around the corner.
Tryster may well be one of the best horses we have ever seen on the UK All-Weather. Trained by Charlie Appleby, he has been progressive throughout the whole winter and took his form to new heights when getting up easily in the Winter Derby at Lingfield.
Goonyelladelivered for the Irish in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter! Trying the 4 mile + trip for the first time, he saw it out like a champ and could be en-route to the big National at Aintree in month time now, where he’d be well in.
It is over! Yes, Cheltenham is over, indeed. We have to wait another (loooong) twelve month until it is alive again. But see it this way: If Cheltenham would be on every week, it wouldn’t be as special as it is. And boy, was this last week special, wasn’t it?! It had it all: Memorable triumphs, dramatic finishes, outstanding horses, magical rides and real Championship races. Relieve the action again – as it happened…..
Day 1 – Tuesday: All about the roar of the crowd – it’s the opening day of the Festival! Four Grade 1’s on the card, probably the finest day of racing the whole year. The big story of course was the potential Willie Mullins four-timer which would have resulted in a major loss for bookmakers. This wasn’t a long-shot. In fact it looked very likely to happen when Annie Power approached the last obstacle in the Mares’ Hurdle.
Punters and bookies alike were holding their breath. Annie was clear and just needed a decent jump to win. But as we know now, she crashed! She got seemingly confused by the shadows and jumped them instead the real obstacle. A fall literally at the last hurdle, saved the bookies millions, and cost punters dearly.
Earlier that day, Douvan opened the Festival with an authoritative triumph in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Un De Sceaux followed with an impressive success in the Arkle. Faugheen landed Tuesdays feature, the Champion Hurdle – living up to all the hype surrounding him. It was a clean sweep for the Irish and Willie Mullins, as not only did he train the winner, but also the runner-up Arctic Fire and of course world-record breaking Hurricane Fly, who finished a gallant third! The New One in contrast wasn’t quick enough. Jezki not good enough.
Day 2 – Wednesday: The readily improving Windsor Park provided renowned flat trainer Dermot Weld with a Cheltenham win in the Neptune Novice’s Hurdle. Davy Russell with a brilliant front-running ride. Don Poli, thought to be one of the bankers of the meeting, obliged duly in the RSA Chase and was rapidly installed as favourite for next years Gold Cup.
The Champion Chase was all about Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre – even or maybe because both didn’t run to their formerly best and were beaten a long way. Sprinter Sacre in particular looked a finished horse and retirement is looming. Sire De Grugy’s legs weren’t quite quick enough and the form horse Dodging Bullets landed the odds.
Day 3 – Thursday: What can you say…. Vautour on a different planet! He demolished classy opposition in the JLT and proved all doubters wrong. His jumping was spot on, maybe the best round of jumping around the testing Cheltenham course we’ve seen in a long time. Gold Cup next year for him.
A winner for AP McCoy is a winner for racing. A perfectly judged front-running ride on long-shot Uxizandre meant McCoy wouldn’t end his Festival career without a winner. It was emotional for anyone involved and just what was needed. A long-shot also got up in the World Hurdle. Cole Harden made all from the front too. Clearly improved since a wind operation, he fend off the challenge from favourite Saphir Du Rheu.
Day 4 – Friday: Gold Cup Day, and it’s all about the big race, indeed! Paul Nicholls’ Silviniaco Conti was the favourite – he had the form in the book thanks to his impressive King George triumph. But his failures at recent Festivals made him look vulnerable. Willie Mullins saddled progressive stayer Djakadam; former Galway Plate and Lexus Chase winner Road To Riches was another Irish runner with fine chances. Hennessy winner Many Clouds and novice Coneygree were well fancied UK rivals.
The race itself turned into a procession of jumping and determination. They said novices can’t win the Gold Cup. Well, they can! Connections of Coneygree were bold in making the decision to let him take his chance in the biggest race of the Festival – and that proved to be the right one. The rapidly improving novice made all from the front. He out-jumped his more experienced rivals and he galloped relentlessly, having more than half of the field on the stretch a long way before the finish. Jumping the last with his ears pricked, this Coneygree was jumping for fun and out-battled the few rivals which were still with him on the legendary Cheltenham hill toward the finish line.
A simply sensational performance. But credit to Road To Riches as well, who was never to far off Coneygree and stuck well to the task. He finished a very creditable 3rd while Djakadam stayed on in second. Silviniaco Conti was beaten when the leading pack turned for home, five runners had to be pulled up, including last years winner Lord Windermere. That shows how ferocious the pace was, set by Coneygree.
Number of the week: 13 – A draw between England and Ireland. Thirteen winners apiece. Though Willie Mullins was responsible for the majority of the Irish winners. He could celebrate a record eight times in the winners circle.
Ride Of the week: Davy Russell on Rivage D’or in the Cross Country Chase – A super confident ride and perfectly judged by the former Irish Champion jockey on the 16-1 outsider. Russell sat quietly on his mount, making up ground gradually, patiently waiting to ask Rivage D’or for everything when it really mattered. Not many can ride Cheltenham better than Russell.
Betting: If you would have followed all bets on this blog throughout the Festival week, you would be a whopping 132pts in the green! To give this figure some context: If one point of your betting bank would be €10, you’d have made €1320.00 this week with my selections. Not too shabby for a week’s work in the office! Highlights were of course Martello Tower on Friday, who got up at 14/1 SP in a dramatic finish. As well as Rivage D’or in the Cross Country, which was tipped at 20/1.
Future Outlook: What a massive Gold Cup we could have on our hands next year. Vautour and Don Poli looked both very special and are heading the ante-post market already, with Coneygree expected to try and defend his crown. Throw in Djakadam and Road To Riches who could both still improve a bit, and we have a race for the ages!
Willie Mullins was the utterly dominating force during the week and quotes of 20/1 are out for him to take all four major races at the Festvial next year – that’s the Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase, World Hurdle and the Gold Cup. I’ve seen worse long-shots to be honest!
Hard to believe, but time is really flying – This is already the last day of the 2015 Cheltenham Festival! We’ve seen some memorable performances over the course of the last three days, but none was more impressive than Vautour’s demolishing job in the JLT on Thursday. Simply in another world! Well, betting wise it was poor day yesterday, but overall we’re still big in profit. Today is a tough day punting wise once again with big, competitive fields. So I try to be a bit more selective. You can read my Gold Cup Preview here, in addition to two more selections for this last final day of the Festival in this post.
Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle)
Not sure if the favourite can be beaten here, but it is certainly a big and competitive field. For a much bigger price a chance is taken with Stars Over The Sea who was a very promising horse earlier this season. He has been a good performer to the flat and took well to hurdles but disappointed subsequently at Cheltenham in December, which was his last start. He’s coming into this as a fresh horse and first time hood and tongue tie have helped so many others before already to realize their potential. He remains a talented hurdler with potential and may outrun his price.
Stars Over The Sea @ 66/1 SJ – 2.5pts EW
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Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The always improving Martello Tower should relish this test today. He stays all the way and going up in trip back to 3m will surely suit. So should be the arriving rain. He beat smart Outlander over this trip at Limerick and followed up with a fine runner-up performance over shorter at Leopardstown. There is plenty to like and in favour for him today and I feel track, trip and ground are tailor made.
This years Festival feature race looks wide open. There is no real outstanding candidate in the race. Or is there? Normally, Silviniaco Conti would be a red hot favourite in anyone’s book. He has the best form this season, and clearly is the number one chaser around at the moment. His Kempton King George success is the standout piece of form – undoubtedly. Trainer Paul Nicholls insists that all past problems have been solved and therefore he won’t falter again the way he did in last years Gold Cup after jumping the last, when he actually looked the sure winner. I’m not convinced, however To my eyes he simply looks a horse tailor-made for flat tracks, like Kempton and Aintree. For that reason I oppose him today.
There are plenty of new kids on the block. Novice Coneygree is a super exciting prospect. I really like him. He gets his ground with the rain arriving. But he’s a novice. That is not an easy task today. Road To Riches and Many Clouds are the improvers. There is no reason why they shouldn’t be competitive. Carlingford Lough also falls into this category and I like his profile. But the more rain’s falling, the more his chances are faltering. Willie Mullins’ best chance is rising star Djakadam. Another progressive sort, but he is a very short price in this competitive race given his form.
Holywell is tipped by many to give AP McCoy the perfect farewell gift. He has been improving throughout the season and looks primed for a big run. He loves it around Cheltenham and stays. Surely it would be lovely to see him winning. But is he good enough? I remain a doubter.
What about the old brigade? Bob’s Worth, a former Gold Cup winner. Hard to trust these days with lack of recent form. Last years winner Lord Windermere hasn’t shown much this year either. Though an improved effort in the Hennessy may bring him nicely along. He’s trained with only this one race in mind. But the 2014 renewal was a strange race. I don’t trust the form.
Boston Bob and On His Own, two more Mullins horses. The latter one was runner-up last year. As mentioned before, a strange race. He done well this winter in the Lexus Chase and is not out of this, clearly he is a better chance than Boston Bob in my mind.
A bit the forgotten horse is The Giant Bolster. He absolutely loves it around Cheltenham and with a bit luck he would have won at least one Gold Cup in recent years. His jumping can be a problem sometimes, but he has the heart and guts to be a big runner once again today. At 40/1 with four places, he is well overpriced and his chances underestimated. He usually comes alive at this time of the year, and it is wise to ignore anything he has shown up to this point this season.
Part II of my preview for Cheltenham Thursday takes a look into the races with the big field sizes. Always on the hunt for value, I belive to have found some interesting overpriced horses.
Pertemps Network Final (Listed Handicap Hurdle)
I wouldn’t be surprised if Grand National winner Pineau De Re shows up today with a big performance but I like Trustan Times a bit more and trust him to run a very good race at a big price. Less than a lengths beaten in fourth last year, he followed on with a third in the Scottish Grand National. Wasn’t seen at his best this season so far, but good ground and return to Cheltenham will definitely suit.
Trustan Times @ 20/1 PP – 2.5pts EW
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Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (Grade 3 Handicap)
David Pipe’s favourite looks hard to oppose but offers zero value. Jessica Harrington in contrast brings over the excellent mare Burn And Turn who was runner-up in the Galway Plate last year and who won off 138 a good Chase at Limerick over 2m4. Out off depth in Graded company, this drop in class will help and key to her is the good ground. She arrives fresh, what can only enhance her chances.
Burn And Turn @ 20/1 Coral – 2.5pts EW
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Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
Benbane Head has a p proven track record over course and distance and if you can forgive him his recent antics at Warwick then you see a nine lengths CD triumph in a Grade 3 Handicap Chase. He’s seven pounds higher today but could be up to it at this venue with ground he clearly likes.
Tuesday was great, Wednesday even better – thanks to two winners on this second day of the Cheltenham Festival! Don Poli obliged in the style of a future Gold Cup star, while Rivage D’or went in @ 20/1 in the Cross-Country Chase. Under a patient ride by Davy Russell, he was all over jumping the last, though may have also profited from a crashing fall of two strongly travelling rivals. Don Poli is a very lazy sort and didn’t look too interested halfway through, but once set alive there was no stopping. That makes it another whopping 62.5pts profit for the day and now 100pts+ for the Festival overall!
JLT Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Vautor is the clear favourite but I feel this is more down to his hurdling form than what he has shown over fences. You can pick holes into the form and his jumping can be slightly worrying. He may well be the star everyone thinks he is and he promised over hurdles at the Festival last year, but this game is about jumping and not every top class hurdler is a top class chaser.
Looking elsewhere, Ptit Zig is a very talented individual and if fully recovered from a recent fall he can run big but I don’t like backing lto fallers. Valseur Lido has a touch of class but not too many excuses the last time at Leopardstown. May need softer ground to be seen at his best anyway. Apache Stronghold chased Don Poli home over 3m, so clearly has class and loads of stamina. I liked the way he won at Leopardstown over 2m5 the last time. He should relish Cheltenham and the good ground and is a better chance than his current price tag suggests.
Apache Stronghold @ 11/2 PP – 5pts win
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Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)
Competitive renewal but Taquin Du Seuil looks hugely overpriced if you can forgive him some below part efforts over 3m in tough conditions. He didn’t seem to relish those stamina tests, so the drop in trip and good ground should help. His record over 2m5f speaks for itself, so does his love for Cheltenham. He won the JLT last year, and another win in addition to a close runner-up effort in four starts here means it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him bounce back at the venue of his biggest success.
Taquin Du Seuil @ 12/1 VC – 2.5pts EW
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World Hurdle (Grade 1)
No Big Buck’s in here this time and last years winner hasn’t made it to the Festival either. That opens up the way for improving Saphir Du Rheu who looks the new bright star in the staying division. A tough winner at Cheltenham in January, he could have still more to offer on what is only his third start over three miles. He’s also rather low mileage for a jumps horse in general. Says he could be still on the up.
Dark horse for me is Dedigout. He remains in the World Hurdle despite the good ground potentially against him. He is hugely progressive as well and has won two nice races this season. He was once quick enough to win over 2m4f in graded company on yielding going, so that gives hope that the ground is not as big a deal as some may thing it will be. He looks certainly a huge price and is worth a nibble.
Part II of my preview for Cheltenham Wednesday – I’ll have a closer look into all of these very competitive looking races with huge filed sizes. There might be some value to find, though, and if only one wins for me, I’ll be big in the profit today.
Coral Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle)
Prices are quickly diminishing for Lac Fontana but he is still big enough to have an each-way interest in him. He loves it around Cheltenham, won three out of six starts here and was progressive last season, culminating in a triumph in the Country Hurdle at the Festival. He has been not quite as good this season, well held in two of his three starts, though he ran in hot company and a third behind Faugheen at Kempton looks good form. He’s a fresh horse today which should work, he has his decent ground and is back at his beloved Cheltenham. I expect a bold bid.
Lac Fontana @ 18/1 Coral – 2.5pts win
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Cross Country Chase
I love this race. Visually it is most compelling. Some strong runners with excellent experience in this type of race are at the top of the market and it is not easy to oppose them, but they offer little to no value in their prices. From the rather unexposed looking animals I like Rivage D’or. He needs decent ground and looks on a fair mark with potential improvement to come. He fell when last seen but usually jumps well. Trip is an unknown but possible. He has won as a fresh horse before, and could outrun his price .
Rivage D’or @ 20/1 PP – 2.5pts EW
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Champion Bumper (Grade 1 Standard Open NH Flat Race)
Some lovely bred sorts in this race. I think some of the bigger prices are underestimated, however. Very well bred indeed is the only mare in the race, Montana Belle. She has a bit of experience in bumpers and shaped well in most starts. I loved the way she quickened here at Cheltenham over CD when last seen. She finished runner-up behind very useful mare Bitofapuzzle who won a couple of races subsequently and finished 3rd in the Mares Hurdle yesterday. The decent ground should suit Montana Belle who looks big and scopy. Worth a nibble.
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