3.05 Haydock: G1 Betfair Chase, 3m1½f
The 2024 Betfair Chase looks an intriguing affair and could evolve around how the pace develops in the first half, given the likely deep ground, with all the additional rain that’s falling.
Possible pace angle The Real Whacker showed excellent early season form three weeks ago when he won the Charlie Hall Chase thanks to a brave performance and a strong finish.
We know he likes to go from the front, although he can follow as well. That versatility could prove crucial in a race where some others may or may not want to go forward as well.
I have slight doubts whether only three weeks after such a huge run he can back it up in a strong field over a this trip in deep ground, especially if the pace is hot early on. Everything needs to fall right for him to win.
For all that, he’s an intriguing price to possibly find out with some small money, if they don’t press him early, he may have enough in the tank to stay in front for quite a while.
Bravemansgame has never quite looked the same horse he was in that brilliant 2023 season. Today fitted with blinkers, 2nd time after a wind operation, he’s hard to trust today – although Paul Nicholls has done it before, lest we forget the magic Kauto Star produced in this very race.
Ahoy Senor got the racing bubble talking after his recent seasonal reappearance – for all the wrong reasons, given the ride he received on the day, not quite giving him the best opportunity to win.
Up in trip will suit today, he should be okay on the ground and will strip fitter for the recent run. He’s not one to trust with your life, and I can see him struggling with his jumping if this turns into a proper test from early on.
Without the rain Hewick would have been a serious contender today. I quite liked his Down Royal return and this track will suit. But all his best form is on better ground. Hence he’s 14/1+ in the betting, and rightly so.
Exciting second-season chaser Grey Dawn is a fair favourite today. Progressive as a novice, he has shown he handles deep ground, has form over 3 miles and could see his King George and Gold Cup prospects improve significantly with a strong performance today.
The fact he’s only raced twice over 3 miles and never beyond yet is a question mark for me. He could well be capable, but he’s a short enough price to find out, and not good value in my book, for all that if he does get the trip in these conditions he’s certainly the one to beat.
Returning 2023 Betfair Chase winner Royale Pagaille has been only sighted once in the meantime – that was in January when he jumped badly and fell in the Cotswold Chase. He won this as as a fresh horse twelve months ago, so the absence isn’t a negative per se.
This course and distance and the deep ground is obviously what he loves, given his 4-3-1 record. You simply can’t deny that Royale Pagaille is a different horse here.
On the other hand, he’s a 10-year-old now. And younger legs may outrun him, ultimately. If he’d be a 6/1 chance I could be tempted. At 10/3 it’s not a bet I like to make.
I find it hard to fancy Gold Tweet, who would be a disappointing winner for the class of this race. Capodanno may prefer better ground over this longer trip, and isn’t one to fancy, either.
Limerick Lace progressed nicely over fences in the last two seasons, culminating in her victory in the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
She didn’t have the best of days in the Grand National subsequently, but there are valid excuses, and ultimately, she still managed to finish a gallant 10th, given all the things that went wrong there.
The mare clearly thrives in deep ground and could be a real danger toward the end of the race today, if she’s still in touch. She has yet to prove that she’s truly homer over 3 miles plus, although her Troytown runner-up performance gives hope.
She can be a bit sketchy jumping wise, and that’s a danger. If they go hard up front, and she gets too far behind, jumping poorly, it’ll be game over soon. At the same time, if they start racing from early on, her more patient running style could prove vital in the long home straight at Haydock.
From a price perspective, with the upside the progressive mare has, ground okay, trip possible okay, and the pace scenario possibly playing into her hands, she’s a nice bet that has still some juice left in the price.
Horseracing - International . COM 
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