3.40 Ascot: Group 1 – King George, 1m 4f

Auguste Rodin sets a very high standard in the King George – if on a going day. He’s the right favourite, and hard to knock on his 2024 form.

Somewhat of an enigma last year, this season he improved nicely from his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh, to land the Group 1 POW at this venue last month in fine style.

Two performances achieving a 100+ speed rating back-to-back as well – clearly on decent ground Auguste Rodin is a superstar. With the pace and race likely to be run in his favour, with his stablemates, including high-class Luxembourg likely to to move forward, he should be in an ideal position when the fields turns for home.

One could argue 6/4 is a pretty fair price, given nearly everything will be in his favour today. It’s not my type of price, but I think you could back far worse shots at these short prices.

Saying that, there’s some decent opposition to beat, albeit, they all have their work cut out, given none of them enjoys the luxury of two pacemakers helping their cause.

Rebel’s Romance is the closest rival in the betting. I don’t he’s good enough to beat Auguste Rodin, though. His best form comes away from home, and he never achieved a Group 1 speed rating on turf so far.

That’s perhaps controversial to say, given he won two Group 1 races this year already. And those were competitive ones at Meydan and Hong Kong. At 7/2 I see zero value in back him, nonetheless.

The filly Bluestocking looks progressive as she matures. Her Pretty Polly win last month was a superb piece of form. Can she translate this type of performance to fast ground and 12 furlongs? If so, she’d be a serious danger.

Middle Earth, so far in her career, hasn’t shown that she’s Group 1 class. Duabi Honour has, and he could outran a big price for a place. Although, his very best form comes over 10 furlongs.

To call Luxembourg, a most recent Group 1 Coronation Stakes winner, a pace maker is probably harsh. He’ll run on merit, no doubt, and is a fair each-way shout at current prices. I do believe he’s best over 10 furlongs, on the other hand, and may be outstayed for win purposes.

There no question that the only 3-year-old colt in the race, Sunway, is tremendously overpriced. 17/1+ on the exchanges is obviously a bonkers price.

Saying that, to start with a negative: his draw an likely position in the race are massive negatives. He’ll likely be held up and will have plenty to do once the field turns for home. His challenge may come too late.

Nonetheless, at this price I can’t leave him unbacked. There’s too much juice in the these odds, for various reasons.

For one: His 108 speed rating achieved in the Irish Derby is the best on offer in this field this season. I believe the Curragh Classic was a strong renewal, and the form will stand the test of time.

Further to that, he achieved that brilliant runner-up performance in less than ideal circumstances. Coming from off the pace, he had a lot to do, didn’t get the best run through, and still finished the fastest over the last three furlongs, thanks to a rapid final furlong.

That run demonstrates his class but also his possibly vulnerability, certainly over this trip, given the way he’s ridden over 12 furlongs. From his #7 draw today most likely he’ll be ridden in similar fashion.

The hope is that they go hard up front and that James Doyle can make progress from halfway out to swing around the bend for a clear run not further back than midfield to unleash a turn of foot, that seems present, especially on better ground, to give Sunway a fair chance to win.

10pts win – Sunway @ 17/1

…….

7.15 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

This looks a superb chance for Sir Oliver to score as he drops down in class again, having lost another 2lb of his mark and gets the added bonus of solid 3lb claiming Christian Howarth in the saddle.

Sir Oliver has ran well enough lately, having finished a gallant 3rd over this course and distance in June, when not ideally placed, in a hot 0-75 Handicap off 3lb higher than today.

He was too keen the next two times back over 7 furlongs, although, also harshly judged in better class, especially most recently at Ascot in a strong class 4 contest.

Down to class 5, where he enjoys a 9-3-4 record and 3-1-2 ground over 6 furlongs on on decent to fast ground, he looks well handicapped in this race today. Albeit competitive in nature, and the #1 draw not quite ideal, the pace scenario shapes well enough for him to cross over quickly to the far rail.

So with fast ground, trip and track to suit, in an easier race, and having shown form lately, Sir Oliver could be hard to beat today.

10pts win – Sir Oliver @ 5/1