2.40 Sandown: Listed Scurry Stakes, 5f
It’s worth giving Dawn Charger another chance, especially today in different circumstances than the last two times where she faded badly.
I don’t think soft ground is a must and her previous form tells as much. A drop to the minimum trip looks needed after she failed to get home over 6 furlongs the last couple of times, albeit showing good early speed.
That early speed could be ideally used today as she has a fine draw to attack the race from and the pace map shapes favourable for her. I thought the way she started quickly and with plenty of speed at Newbury last month in a hot race showed there’s still enough ability, also now as a 3-year-old.
Dawn Charger has to give some weight away but she may well be able to do so as the class act, potentially. This race looks easier than the last two Listed races she contested in as well.
She was impressive as a juvenile landing a Group 3 and getting close to land a Group 2 also. That also achieve her a 92 speed rating – the best in this field.
10pts win – Dawn Charger @ 9/1 (SM)
……..
3.15 Sandown: Class 3 Handicap, 7f
I’m not sure what the reason is for Star Style drifting out rather dramatically this morning, from 4’s all the way out to getting 9s matched on Exchanges. She certainly is a price I love to back now, no matter what.
The risk aside that there may well be a reason for the price drift, the Richard Hannon trained filly looked ultra-impressive on debut at Newbury in April. She torn the field apart making all from the front setting a hot pace.
Rewarded with a superb 84 speed rating for that debut performance, suggested the daughter of Zoustar could be Group class winner in the making. The form didn’t work out well, but the way she did it, was what mattered more.
She went right to Newmarket for the Guineas but was always more likely not to stay a mile. And so it happened, as she raced too the front and set hot fractions, eventually fading to to finish a tired 15th of 16 runners.
Star Style drops back to 7 furlongs today, though she may even be quite effective over 6 furlongs. Her mark of 86 looks possibly underestimating her true potential. She certainly looked a much better horse on debut.
Saying that, there is pace competition here today. She won’t have it all her way from the front. Though, that may help her to settle, at least. One of the likely pace rivals is a NR as well. In addition to that, a good low draw will clearly help her to have a smooth way to the front.
The main concern I have is the ground. Fast ground is an unknown and her pedigree points suggests she may not be at her best when firm appears in the going description, also she seems to hit the ground quite hard, as far as my untrained eye can see.
At given prices I’m prepared to run the risk. If they afford her a too easy run from the front she could be hard to peg back, especially on fast ground at this track.
10pts win – Star Style @ 7/1 (SM)