2.15 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 7f

This is a seriously weak contest. Only two horses truly stand out as serious win candidates.

Of course, favourite Kelpie Grey may well be able to defy a 5lb penalty. He ran to a strong speed rating the last time off a break and should enjoy the likely fast pace here.

At the same time he’s been far from prolific throughout his career and whether he has the gears on this better ground over this trip remains to be seen.

He’s one I’m happy to take on with Gobi Sunset, who himself could be a touch better over shorter 6 furlongs on turf. Nonetheless, he’s a winner over this trip on the sand and with the decent ground – likely to stay that way given the current forecast – he should be fine.

The gelding is possibly supremely well handicapped here, especially with a good 5lb claimer in the saddle. One can ignore the most recent run at Ayr over a wrong trip and class too hot, certainly in that combination.

It may, however, worked as run to put him right for this contest where he also drops down to class 6 for the first time off a dangerous mark. Gobi Sunset is more prolific on sand but has won twice on turf as well, and judged by his performances this winter, remains in good form.

His penultimate effort at Southwell, when third in a strong race that worked out well in the meantime, he was a significant eye catcher, as he did a lot in the first half of the race to overcome a wide draw.

Drawn in #1 this time, that won’t be the same issue, although the pace could be hot which most in the field enjoy being up with it. However, he could enjoy the inside ride, and a fair race to the line should ensure class is the deciding factor.

10pts win – Gobi Sunset @ 7/2

……

4.30 Musselburgh: Class 6 Handicap, 1m

Another poor contest. Few appear well handicapped, certainly judged on more recent performances.

Tacitus has emerged as a tentative favourite over night, and that’s a shame because I hoped to get a better price for this gelding. He’s not one to put too much trust in, and clearly he’s not as prolific as his namesake.

But he’s got plenty going for himself today, and could have too much in the tank for this lot.

For one, Tacitus is down to his last winning mark, and back to a course and distance he was a desperately unfortunate runner-up last summer off a 4lb higher mark.

He had two runs on the sand after coming from a nice winter break. There was plenty to like about his his most recent run at Wolverhampton, in fact as he moved forward from a wide draw and was in the mix for a long enough time, without getting a hard ride.

He was 2lb wrong in the handicap, and clearly outclassed in the end. Down to 0-55 against some much poorer opposition, off his real handicap mark, he should be much more competitive.

The #7 draw is slightly wider than ideal here, but he has shown enough early speed in the past to ensure he can move forward to get into a decent position, that provides cover and isn’t too far off whoever leads.

10pts win – Tacitus @ 4/1