3.30 Champion Hurdle, 2m½f

The race hasn’t been blown wide open with the absence of Constitution Hill. Instead State Man has simply replaced the champion as the new red hot favourite.

State Man is now as short as 1/3 with the majority of bookies. Is that a slight overreaction to the supposed fact that there’s not (even potentially) meaningful opposition to the reigning Irish Champion hurdler?

No question, State Man is a seriously talented AND consistent horse. Unbeaten for two years – with the exception of a highly credible runner-up performance in the 2023 Champion Hurdle.

Trained by Willie Mullins, of course the 7-year-old gelding is the likeliest winner. Yet, there’re a couple of reasons that could spoil the Mullins party on Tuesday, at least in the Champion Hurdle:

State Man hasn’t quite wowed me yet on speed ratings. His two Cheltenham performances are good, and clearly the success in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown rates strongly as well, also on the clock.

Perhaps, trying to find holes in the form, it’s nitpicking, but he may have benefited from circumstances in those races, and the overbearing feeling for me remains that the vast majority of his performances don’t scream “unbeatable”, like a 1/3 shot would suggest.

The pace in the Champion Hurdle will be interesting to see how it develops. State Man may have to do the “donkey work” for himself. He usually races right up there and has made the running in the past. Hence this isn’t a negative per se. But it may offer some others to stalk and pounce in his shadow for a turn of foot – because this could easily develop into a sprint finish.

Of course all that only matters if there’s any meaningful opposition. With that in mind, I think there could be two horses offering enough upside at this point of their careers to hope that they can make this a race for State Man.

Irish Point is an intriguing runner. The drop in trip may not be a problem if the ground remains soft, though the potential lack of pace is a concern. Perhaps that could temp connections to deploy front-running tactics?

There were occasions when Irish Point made all, notably when he landed a Grade 3 as a Novice last year at Naas over 2 miles.

The Gordon Elliott trained gelding seems as rock solid an each-way shout as you could find, if eight runners go to post. He should be a bit shorter, in my book, than the current prices.

The one I’m most intrigued by is Nicky Henderson trained Iberico Lord. Supplemented at the cost of £18k, he’s no Constitution Hill, but certainly a promising horse on an upward trajectory.

Ground is key for the 6-year-old gelding: it should remain soft enough for him to be seen to best effect on Tuesday, given the current weather forecast and latest going readings.

Iberico Lord remains low mileage with plenty of upside: 7-3-1 over hurdles, and 2/3 this season – a lacklustre effort in December had been put firmly into the rear mirror thanks to a big performance in the Newbury Betfair Hurdle last month.

That was only a Grade 3, and he’s got to step up significantly to have a real chance in a Champion Hurdle. Nonetheless, that level of performance puts him right in the picture here IF he can continue to improve.

The way he quickened at Newbury from three out was seriously impressive, in my view. He did it easily enough in the end. That form looks strong, franked through some of those behind in the Imperial Cup last weekend.

Another positive can be taken from his course and distance win back in November. He clearly relished the hill that day.

Stable form is an obvious concern. Nicky Henderson’s loss of form, and the issues with his stable star, have been widely documented. In contrast Willie Mullins seems to to win everything these days. State Man will be 100% ready. Let’s hope Iberico Lord is ready to rock as well.

Even without the stable form question to be answered, Iberico Lord has to improve a whopping 26lb on Official Ratings. Although, with natural progression that isn’t impossible.

This is going to be his first crack at Grade 1 level. And on speed ratings things look quite a bit closer. Therefore, a gap of 1.37 to 14.5 seems huge…. and too big.

10pts win – 13.5/1

……

4.50: Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, 2m½f

As the nature of this race goes, it’s wide open. A case can be made for plenty to be in with a chance, and/or somewhat hidden to protect their mark in the past just waiting for a looseningof the handbrake.

This may be one where the home team has a chance, but the away side could have the edge once more.

Joseph O’Brien’s Lark In The Mornin makes plenty of appeal – surely he’s got tons of unseen potential to offer, waiting to be unleashed on Tuesday. I’m not fond off the price, though.

The De Bromhead yard seems to hit some form, finally. The lightly raced filly Nara is an intriguing runner if she can settle in the hood. She looks a free sort and a buzzing Cheltenham remains a worry.

The market hasn’t missed Milan Tino, who looks on a decent opening mark, neither does the market takes any chances with top-rated Liari and Ndaawi.

One I’m interested in, but thought the price may go the wrong way for me, has been available at surprisingly generous prices this afternoon, though: Martin Brassil trained Ose Partir could be seriously dangerous off 126 on his handicap debut.

The bare form this year reads quite poorly on the surface. However, there’s more to it than naked numbers. The French recruit was keen in his first starts and raced in hot waters lately.

This is perhaps easier than the Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. He jumped alright for most of the race, made a bit of progress from the rear of the field from four out before fading away, without getting an overly hard ride.

Ose Partir seemed to settle better and travelled well enough. I quite liked his run over Christmas as well where he made even more eye-catching progress toward the backend of the race.

He was a promising three-year old on the flat in France before switching to the Brassil yard. A winner on his racecourse debut, and fine second in a subsequent conditions race behind a winner who locked horns with Big Rock and Ace Impact subsequently.

His Irish debut was eye-catching too, as he was quite keen and was a bit unfortunate in the closing stages, finishing a gallant runner-up without being asked for everything.

In any case, Ose Partir is one to keep an eye on even if he finds this contest too hot in the end. If he’s ridden off the pace he’ll need some luck too. But the likely rattling pace and big field could help him to settle and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a significantly improved performance.

10pts win – Ose Partir @ 15.5/1