19 and counting… worst losing run in a while. Griggy a big drifter on the day, never spotted in the race. Making a habit of it right now. On to tomorrow…

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6.05 Goodwood: Class 5 Handicap, 1m 2f

Barrier is one of the Handicappers to follow and I feel this looks an ideal Handicap debut for the filly. Judge her on a poor seasonal reappearance at your peril, dare I say…. this is a completely different proposition than what she encountered at Newmarket.

She dropped out rapidly and seriously badly from 4f out, but you could also argue until then she ran quite well, given she missed the break badly. actually.

That was tough opener, against strong opposition to the most part. It served the purpose to qualify for Handicaps, though. She can start off a 67 mark, which could be significantly underestimating her.

The drop to 10 furlongs doesn’t worry me too much, although she may turn out to be better over further. The opening mark is simply so low, I find it hard to believe, especially as she showed promise as a juvenile, on her final start in 2022 at Ascot, where I felt her run warrants an upgrade.

New headgear may help her to get her race off a bit sharper. She missed the break in all her starts, so that’s a concern. The fast ground is somewhat of an unknown, too, given it’s hard to take anything away from that lto run.

Nonetheless, I can’t leave her unbacked at this price, even though I would hope there is some support in the market later. It could also mean I’ve got it spectacularly wrong in my assessment of this filly.

10pts win – Barrier @ 20/1

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4.25 Sandown: Class 5 Handicap, 7f

Absolutely no doubt Bell Song is well-handicapped off 72 in her second run in Handicap company. She showed plenty in each of her three starts this year, including on Handicap debut last week, but has been given a real opportunity by the handicapper, who couldn’t have been any fairer.

Last week at Chelmsford she had the widest draw to overcome., which was a major disadvantage. She was caught wide and didn’t find cover for the first half of the race.

As a consequence she moved forward, used up loads of energy, to find a suitable position, eventually. It was impressive how she was able to kick on approaching the home straight and also the way she stayed well to the line despite all the trouble.

She was only beaten by one ridden with more restraint from a low draw. How good the form is remains to be seen, but the filly couldn’t have done much more to catch the eye. She has been left, surprisingly, on a 72 mark.

Which in itself looks on the low side, given her excellent seasonal reappearance at Southwell that looks quite strong form, where she didn’t get a clear run, otherwise she would have finished closer.

She may need to move up to a mile to be seen to best effect, but 7 furlongs seem fine for now. The pace looks somewhat muddling in this race. That’s a good and a bad thing.

One hand it means she should have no issue overcoming the #8 draw and follow the lead of likely front-runner Taritino drawn right beside her. She should be in an ideal position if all goes well. But she can be a bit keen as well, and may prefer a decent pace to aim at. There’s a risk.

Saying that, the risks are possibly outweighed simply by the fact that the filly could have way too much in hand in this field, I believe, on what is her turf debut, with fast ground probably to suit, given the pedigree. I don’t get this price, at all.

10pts win – Bell Song @ 11/1

………

3.35 York: Listed Ganton Stakes, 1m

This race and pace scenario screams for an upset. Shining Blue is expected to go off as favourite. That’s fair. He won really well in Handicap company when last seen over 7 furlongs and does stay a mile.

On the other hand, the shorter trip is probably his optimum. His best speed rating came in January at Meydan over 7f. Purely judged on that he’s the one to beat.

A mile, fast ground, muddling pace, is a somewhat different scenario, and outside Meydan his form isn’t all that impressive. Therefore, he could be more vulnerable than the short price suggests.

El Drama is the pick on career-best speed ratings. But he may like it a bit longer than a mile and he hasn’t ran any faster than speed ratings in the 70s in over two years. That’s normally not good enough for this level. But then, this isn’t an overly strong race, either.

Chichester should find this easier than the last time and ran well on the All-Weather before. Though, he might be outpaced if this turns into a sprint for home and he could be poorly positioned in rear.

Longshot Silver Screen can’t be fancied, however Azano has all the right attributes to outrun his price here.

He’s only rated 92, and has a lot to find on Official Ratings and normally wouldn’t be too likely to land a blow outside Handicap company. Yet, this race may fall into his lap.

On the plus side, he showed fine form in his last two runs this year. Last time at Sandown he did too much to get to the front from his wide draw when he made the donkey work for those from off the pace, basically.

His Newmarket run in May, though, was strong, and a repeat of that form could be good enough to win this Listed contest.

That day he made the most of the standing start when he quickly moved forward to lead, as he set a strong pace and had the field on the stretch from 3 furlongs out. He ran home well and even rallied in the final furlong, but was eventually beaten by a strong winner.

I do rate that performance, as it represented somewhat of a return to close of his best form. Hos best gives him a definite chance her. Especially over a mile on fast ground where he may find himself able to dominate.

Although the earlier prices of around 40s seem rapidly disappearing since having started writing this post, I think what’s on offer is still a huge price given the likely circumstances of this race, and I’d be pretty certain Azano will outrun these odds.

10pts win – Azano @19/1