Viewpoint can outrun the odds at Kempton

The clear favourite at head of the market is Godolphin’s progressive gelding Tryster. He is on a hat-trick and has to carry a big weight of 9st 7lb according to his high rating of 100. The four year can be a tricky ride sometimes and clearly showed signs of greenness at Chelmsford when he beat Gaelic Silver in a controversial finish. Tryster made things look  much easier the next time at Wolverhampton and won like a horse that could go on to bigger things. A hike of 7lb in the mark is fair for that performance on on hand, but could still be generous on the other hand. The best price of 11/10 looks a fair one too, no doubt. But is there a chance to take this hot favourite on?

Nearest pursuer in the market is Beach Bar who also ha a progressive profile. Only beaten in the last couple of strides over 10f at Lingfield the last time, he has clear credentials to run well again. I’m question his stamina, though. He had the run of the race lto on his only start over a trip that far, and looked like he couldn’t quite hold on to it. He is bred rather for a mile in my mind and the speed on the dam side clearly makes me wonder if he may fade away in a race where a couple of runners might want to chase a bit more aggressively the lead. On the other hand if he could get an easy lead in front he has a chance to get home, particularly over the sharp Kempton 10f course.

The Gay Cavalier has won his last two starts and clearly thrives on the Kempton All-Weather. He never does too much once in front, yet his recent success was visually a compelling one to my eyes. He takes quite a step up in class now and has effectively to carry 7lb more on ratings this time against much stronger opposition. He may well be up for it with further improvement not unlikely, but that also says he faces a tough task in my mind.

Gaelic Silver was a controversial runner-up behind Tryster at Chelmsford in January. He disappointed subsequently of a revised mark and has to prove that he can overcome a career highest mark. Rebellious Guest on his best, would have a chance, but his form is poor lately. Same applies to George Guru. It’s hard to see either of them going close here.

Leaves Richard Hannon’s six year old gelding Viewpoint. Once a progressive and prolific 10 furlongs handicapper, he won a big Apprentice Handicap at Glorious Goodwood in summer 2013 and also landed the All-Weather Championships Apprentice Handicap over 12f on Good Friday last season. Since then things went downhill for him. Last year was mainly a complete disaster, bar the early Al-Weather success, and his most recent efforts didn’t instil too much euphoria either. However the last three back on the All-Weather he ran in hot competition and looked a bit better again. With the AW handicap mark falling, he was well in contention at Lingfield lto back in January, though lost all chances when a horse fell right in front of him.

Now, there is still not too many positives speaking for Viewpoint. However I believe he is a huge price here against the favourite. He gets a good deal of weight, and would go very close if he finds back to anything near his best. The drop in trip back to 10f looks ideal, particularly here at Kempton. I can see him reverting back to more positive tactics, to be right up with the speed and make it a stamina test. Then being up with the pace is a huge advantage at Kempton’s 10f course. So if he would be able to kick on turning for home, I could see him holding on to it over the short run-in while Tryster, sitting probably trailing, may not be there in time.

6.45 Kempton: Class 2 Handicap, 10 furlongs
Viewpoint @ 14/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts win

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