Saturday Selections: November, 30th 2019

Kilimanjaro goes clear

1.05 Lingfield: Class 5 Handicap, 6f

As suggested yesterday in my Dundalk preview, Aloysius Lilius found it difficult to make it in to the race as a reserve, but he would eventually rock up 24h later at Lingfield. So here we are, the three-year-old is running today.

What held true merely a day ago is still very much the case today – however it has to be said this class 5 Handicap is probably more competitive than the Dundalk race last night. On the other hand, as competitive as it appears on the surface, most fancied runners fall away when checking whether they are well handicapped. Aloysius Lilius remains a proper chance, though:

Aloysius Lilius dropped to a tasty handicap mark but can’t be really faulted given he ran some fine races this year on turf when going close on a couple of occasions over the minimum trip.

His first attempt to tackle the All-Weather was highly promising  at Dundalk a fortnight ago. A wide draw was a big disadvantage and receiving a heavy bump right after the start didn’t do him any favours. This was a wild race, he was at the back of the field and didn’t receive the clearest of runs, but finished strongly on the outside in the final furlong.

He stays on the same 66 OR. Interesting: Aloysius Lilius ran twice to 67+ topspeed in his career, including in his penultimate run. So with a much better draw here, and potentially enjoying the step up to 6 furlongs (he’s a half-brother to a 6f winner on the All-Weather).

Aloysius Lilius dropped to a tasty handicap mark but can’t be really faulted given he ran some fine races this year on turf when going close on a couple of occasions over the minimum trip.

His first attempt to tackle the All-Weather was highly promising here at Dundalk a fortnight ago. A wide draw was a big disadvantage and receiving a heavy bump right after the start didn’t do him any favours. This was a wild race, he was at the back of the field and didn’t receive the clearest of runs, but finished strongly on the outside in the final furlong.

He stays on the same 66 OR. Interesting: Aloysius Lilius ran twice to 67+ topspeed in his career, including in his penultimate run. So with a much better draw here, and potentially enjoying the step up to 6 furlongs (he’s a half-brother to a 6f winner on the All-Weather).

Selection:
10pts win – Aloysius Lilius @ 7/1 MB

……….

1.40 Lingfield: Class 6 Handicap, 6f

Favourite Papa Delta has an impressive record and is likely to run his race, having every chance to win, but he is handicapped to his best form at the same time.

On the other hand The Lacemaker has been pretty consistent the last while, having also ran to topspeed ratings of 59 and 56 in her last four starts but gets a fair chance by the handicapper nonetheless.

Down to a mark of 56 now, she came damn close only seven days ago at this venue, albeit over 7 furlongs, where she tired only inside the final 200 yards after having done a lot from a wide draw, cutting across, leading and setting decent fractions.

Coming down in trip again in a smaller field, off her current mark with those recent performances in the book that are confirmed by the clock, The Lacemaker is clearly handicapped to win today.

Seletion:
10pts win – The Lacemaker @ 6/1 MB

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