5.00 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 3f
Very few of these have shown any form to shout about, but the one that seems undervalued in the market is the filly Inclyne – likely undervalued given her slightly more exposed profile.
However she is rather unexposed on the All-Weather, after only one start to date, one she won easily last time out here at Kempton over 12 furlongs.
Granted, that was not an overly strong contest, and the pace was slow as well, but the way she quickened and put matters to bed in the final two furlongs as easy as you like was impressive.
It was a performance that I liked particularly in the context of her Nottingham 3rd place, 3/4 of lengths beaten only in a very hot contest that worked out incredibly strongly in the meantime; proving that was probably true form for her to run to such a level.
Interestingly, despite the fact it was not an overly strong race, Inclyne achieved an 82 topspeed rating last months here at Kempton. That’s pretty decent for this grade as well and no other horse in the field has achieved it yet. Inclyne can run of a 78 handicap mark today, so she may have a bit in hand, actually.
I don’t think the drop in trip is an issue. I can see a well run 11 furlongs to suit. The draw is wider than ideal. But that’s the risk worth to take.
10pts win –Inclyne @ 5/1 MB
5.05 Ascot: Class 3 Handicap, 5f
His price continues to drop, and that is not only because of the N/R, I feel: Koditime appears to be incredibly well handicapped having his preferred conditions today, dropping further in the weights as well as in grade.
Only once the 4-year-old raced below class 2 level (apart from maiden company of course) and that was fantastic victory at York over the minimum trip on fast ground last year. Koditime ran to topspeed 93 that day and followed up with another strong runner-up performance at Windsor subsequently, achieving a 95 TS rating.
He was found out in higher grade and has gone backward ever since, despite the use of various headgear. He started this season of a mark of 94 and ran pretty damn well when only two lengths beaten on his seasonal reappearance at York. But he hasn’t kicked on from there which has resulted in his dramatic fall in the handicap mark down to 84 now!
Maybe he lost the appetite for racing, but if there is anything left in him, given he hinted to have retained some ability earlier this season, then he has a massive chance to win today.
10pts win – Koditime @ 11.5/1 MB
5.25 Thirsk: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f
Connections seem to have found a prime opportunity for Aiya to score finally on turf today. This race isn’t all that strong, albeit it is a class 3 Handicap and the gelding remains a turf maiden, so confidence has to be seen in that context.
But the 4-year-old was a little bit unlucky not get his head in front on grass yet, because he got close at Redcar when beaten by a neck. He hasn’t quite followed up, however, as a result has fallen to a sexy handicap mark of 76.
He ran to topspeed 80 in that mentioned Redcar race and clocked 77 on the All-Weather in the past – so with conditions likely to suit it is easy to why money is coming for this lad.
The trip is the question mark. Yes he has won over 1m 4f already, but it certainly stretches him, particularly if he is keen in the early stages of a race which he has shown more than once in the past. So stepping up from 10 furlongs to 12 furlongs that will be the delicate job David Allen in the saddle to figure out how to manage, as he also has to deal with a less than ideal draw.
Regardless, overall at given prices Aiya is an intriguing runner here.
10pts win – Aiya @ 10/1 MB