5.35 Newmarket: Class 5 Handicap, 1 mile
Fleeting Freedom is an intriguing runner here: she drops down to a handy mark, racing in against opposition she is capable of beating by anything she has shown in the past, however, as she remains a maiden for quite some time now, you have question her attitude.
Nonetheless I’m prepared to back her in this race, that doesn’t look overly deep. I believe you can forgive her latest run when finishing last at Yarmouth which may have been down to the heavy ground. Before that, on her seasonal reappearance she came fourth only 1.5l beaten in a super hot contest that has worked out strongly ever since.
Three pounds lower than that day, Fleeting Freedom could be on a sexy handicap mark now. She has performed admirable of higher marks in similar conditions in the past, and having posted two topspeed performances of 75 already, I feel she is gearing up to take advantage of a career lowest mark now.
It’s a bonus that a good apprentice is on board, who claims 5lb and interestingly has only this single ride today.
10pts win – Fleeting Freedom @ 15/1 MB
7.15 Chepstow: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
A race for my taste: smallish field, little quality, pretty uncompetitive and an overvalued favourite. Lapidary is surely of interest on handicap debut after a fine novice win, but hardly set the world alight either and didn’t run particularly fast that would be in line with a stiff opening mark.
The other well fancied runners are hard to fancy at given prices. However, four-year-old Roman Spinner stands out in this field having pretty competitive form to her name already, having been placed against much hotter competition.
She had two fair runs after a break on the All-Weather in better class; albeit comfortably beaten, those runs are better than the bare form suggest. She drops down to class 5 now as well as another 2lb in her mark, leaving her 3lb lower than her last AW winning mark, though she was also only a neck beaten on turf of 2lb higher.
The fact all her wins came on the sand may be misleading, given Roman Spinner ran well on turf as well. Her best topspeed and RPR’s on turf and AW are not too far off each other: TS 82 last autumn achieved at Kempton, and 76 on the grass – with trip and ground conditions fine, she looks dangerously well handicapped today.
10pts win – Roman Spinner @ 6/1 MB