Another runner-up, would you believe it? Presence Process seemed to get there, just to finish 2nd eventually. The fourth time this week hitting the post. Frustrating, particularly as the majority were double figure prices. Well, I got to carry on. That’s part of the game.
2.55 Southwell: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 4f
The favourite could well have too much in the locker, seeking a fourth victory in a handful of starts since October. Nonetheless this seems to be quite an open affair to me, and I would not be surprised if there is someone causing an upset.
This someone could be longshot Cosmelli. If he’s not in here to run his mark further down but will be ridden to merit, he’s a chance to go close, I feel.
Cosmelli found life difficult coming over to Britain from Italy. He raced in strong races off high marks, yet was generally not disgraced in a good deal of them. A key piece of form is his 8th place in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle – only 3 lengths beaten in a race that has been franked multiple times.
As for recent form, I feel those last three runs since being gelded have been better than the bare form suggests. Particularly at Newcastle in a strong Conditions Stakes where he had to give weight away to most in the field, he did quite well, particularly if looking at the sectionals but also the visual fact that he only dropped away inside the two final furlongs.
It is noteworthy that Cosmelli achieved RPR’s of 90, 94 and 89 in his last three runs on the All-Weather – his handicap mark dropped to 87 in the meantime. He also drops in class – this is much easier than many of the races he ran in over the last year or so. So I can see he could outrun his price….
If he acts on fibresand. I can see this work, though. While he drops to 1m4f, the fact Southwell emphasizes stamina generally, it could suit him well if there is a decent pace, too.
It has to be remembered that Cosmelli is a Listed winner over 1m 3f in Italy and is pretty well bred for an Italian individual. His dam’s other offspring has all been at least placed in pattern class.
10pts – Cosmelli @ 33/1 Bet365
3.55 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f
It probably looks mad to select another longshot that has seemingly no hope to do anything here. And results may say so tomorrow at 4pm. Nonetheless, Emigrated has in my book a chance in this really poor race.
Realistically there is the favourite and not much else in the field. Even though with form in the book, Chaucer’s Tale looks hardly dangerous. Neither does Scribner Creek, however, a yard change may see him revived.
Still, Emigrated, despite a mark that can’t get much lower, still a maiden after 18 runs under rules – “only” ten on the flat, though – he has shown improvement in two of his last three starts for his new trainer Derek Shaw.
Off a break in December for the new yard, on his sole Southwell start, he broke badly and never really settled, as a consequence got a mouthful of kickback and eventually had to turn widest from 4f out. Surprisingly easily did he pick up rival after rival to look in with a real shout over 2f out, nonetheless.
Probably in need of the run and paying tribute to the bad start, he faded badly in the end. That says this runs is much stronger than the bare form suggests. Interestingly Emigrated followed up with another pretty good run at Chelmsford only four days later.
A fine fiftth, less than three lengths beaten, while not getting the best of runs; one week later his third run within eleven days, was then a bit too much and I would not read too much into it. Rather see that for his new yard he put together two subsequent performances that can be classified as eye-catching.
Back after a four week long break, he might be perfectly set up for a big performance on a surface he has proven he can act on. The trip is a slight question mark; does he really stay a mile?
I feel Emigration deserves a chance here. At the given price it is more hope than anything else. But in a poor race like this, an upset wouldn’t be a major shock at all.
10pts win – Emigration @ 25/1 Bet365